2024 presidential election
Modesto
TrumpR+1.4
Constituent county margins for Modesto, CAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
| Donald Trump ✓Republican | 49.3% | 38,520 |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala HarrisDemocratic | 47.9% | 37,410 |
| OtherAll other candidates | 2.8% | 2,170 |
D+60R+60
1 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2008 | +7.4% |
| 2012 | +8.5% |
| 2016 | +7.4% |
| 2020 | +8.0% |
| 2024 | −1.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 37,410 | 38,520 | 78,100 | ||
| D | 46,070 | 39,065 | 87,255 | ||
| D | 35,771 | 30,524 | 70,736 | ||
| D | 34,829 | 29,389 | 64,218 | ||
| D | 36,319 | 31,302 | 67,921 |
Demographics
Demographic profile
Demographic Profile
Key indicators compared across containing geographies
| Indicator | ModestoCity | CaliforniaState | United StatesNation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race & Ethnicity | |||
| White | 43.1% | 39.7% | 61.0% |
| Black | 4.7% | 5.4% | 12.2% |
| Asian | 7.7% | 15.5% | 6.0% |
| Two or more races | 26.6% | 19.2% | 12.6% |
| Other race | 16.8% | 20.1% | 8.2% |
| Hispanic or Latino | 45.4% | 40.1% | 19.3% |
| Income & Age | |||
| Median household income | $79,891 | $99,122 | $84,427 |
| Poverty rate | 13.3% | 12.0% | 12.5% |
| Median age | 35.1 | 37.9 | 39.1 |
| Age 18–24 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% |
| Age 65 and older | 13.9% | 15.6% | 17.2% |
| Education & Language | |||
| Bachelor's degree or higher (25+) | 21.2% | 37.1% | 35.7% |
| Speaks a non-English language at home | 37.1% | 44.4% | 22.3% |
| Spanish | 26.9% | 28.3% | 13.6% |
| Other Indo-European | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Other Asian & Pacific Island | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Other languages | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Ancestry | |||
| Largest ancestry | German 6.7% | German 6.8% | German 12.5% |
| 2nd-largest ancestry | Irish 6.0% | English 6.3% | English 9.5% |
| 3rd-largest ancestry | English 6.0% | Irish 5.9% | Irish 9.4% |
| Religion | |||
| Catholic | 21.0%County context | 26.2% | 18.6% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 11.3%County context | 9.0% | 16.5% |
| Unaffiliated or unclaimed | 61.1%County context | 55.2% | 51.5% |
ACS values are survey estimates and may include margins of error.
Religion data may be available only at county or larger geographies. Sub-county values are labeled when inherited, modeled, or contextual.
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
6.7%
Irish
6.0%
English
6.0%
Italian
3.0%
American
2.1%
French
1.1%
Scottish
1.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 35.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$79,891
Modesto$79,891
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
13.3%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1817.4%
Working age (18–64)11.8%
Seniors (65+)15.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
62.9%
speak English only
Spanish26.9%
Other Indo-European3.6%
Other Asian & Pacific Island1.6%
Other languages1.3%
Tagalog (incl. Filipino)1.1%
Chinese (incl. Mandarin & Cantonese)0.6%
Russian, Polish, or other Slavic0.5%
Arabic0.5%
Vietnamese0.3%
French (incl. Cajun & Haitian)0.2%
German or other West Germanic0.2%
Korean0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Unaffiliated or not counted61.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. The unaffiliated-or-not-counted share is everyone not claimed as an adherent by any reporting body — uncounted congregations as well as the religiously unaffiliated.
Modesto sits in the Pacific Coast. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 8.5 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 1.4 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 9.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.4 points.
A population of 219,215, a 43% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $79,891 describe the city.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Modesto, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0648354/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Modesto, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Modesto, California voted Republican by 1.4 points (R+1.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 78,100 votes cast, 37,410 went Democratic and 38,520 went Republican.
What is Modesto, California's political typology?
Akashic places Modesto, California in the "" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the city has voted Democratic 4 times, Republican 1 times, and other 0 times.
When did Modesto, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Modesto, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Modesto, California?
Modesto, California has a population of 219,215 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Modesto, California?
Median household income in Modesto, California is $79,891 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Modesto, California?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Modesto, California from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 1 went Republican. The city's typology — "" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.