Iowa was a swing state for a generation, and then it was not. Barack Obama carried it twice — by 9.5 points in 2008 and 5.8 in 2012 — before it turned to Donald Trump three straight times: by 9.3 points in 2016, 8.2 in 2020, and 13.2 in 2024, the widest of the three. The 2024 result marks a 19-point move in the margin from 2012, among the largest of any state across those twelve years. Iowa had backed the winner of every presidential race from 2000 through 2020; in 2024 it sat thirteen points to the right of the national result.
The Democratic vote pulled back to a few eastern river towns and college counties. Only five of the ninety-nine counties voted Democratic in 2024: Johnson, home to the University of Iowa, the strongest at D+37.8; Polk, which holds Des Moines, at D+10.8; Story, home to Iowa State at Ames, at D+10.3; Linn, around Cedar Rapids, at D+9.9; and Black Hawk, around Waterloo, at D+1.2. Scott County, on the Mississippi at Davenport, went Republican by 3.9 points after backing the Democrat in 2020. Johnson and Sioux mark the spread — D+37.8 against R+70.7, a gap of more than a hundred points.
The move was sharpest in the farm counties along the Mississippi and across the north. Clinton County, on the river, went from Obama by 22.8 points in 2012 to Trump by 18.8 in 2024 — a 41-point reversal in a dozen years; Jackson County, just upriver, swung from D+16.9 to R+32.5. Iowa is older and less college-educated than the country: 31.8 percent of adults hold a bachelor’s degree, 35th of fifty states. Both top offices are open in 2026 — Governor Reynolds and Senator Ernst both declined re-election — pairing Rob Sand against Zach Lahn for governor and Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek for the Senate seat.