- Lead
- 2,315
- Total
- 10,644
- vs nation
- R+20.3
- Turnout
- 74.3%
Cedar County, IA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 74.3% of 14,404 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,824
- Total
- 10,703
- vs nation
- R+21.5
- Turnout
- 75.5%
- Lead
- 1,696
- Total
- 9,631
- vs nation
- R+19.7
- Turnout
- 68.4%
- Lead
- 443
- Total
- 9,649
- vs nation
- D+0.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 932
- Total
- 9,665
- vs nation
- D+2.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 122
- Total
- 9,694
- vs nation
- D+1.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2
- Total
- 8,344
- vs nation
- R+0.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 890
- Total
- 7,676
- vs nation
- D+3.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+21.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 18,3492024 5-year
- Median household income
- $80,6022024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+20.4 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.5 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Washington County, IA · twin score 90.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 74.3%10,709 participants ÷ 14,404 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 54.6%–59.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 9,631 | 14,074 | 68.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 8,155 | 14,188 | 57.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 10,762 | 14,249 | 75.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,987 | 14,322 | 55.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 10,709 | 14,404 | 74.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 10,624 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Farmington Sugar CreekFarmington Sugar Creek | 464 | 1,061 | 22 | 1,547 | 30.0% | 68.6% | R+38.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -West Branch 1West Branch 1 | 900 | 619 | 25 | 1,544 | 58.3% | 40.1% | D+18.2 |
| Precinct -Cass Center Iowa RochesterCass Center Iowa Rochester | 483 | 951 | 19 | 1,453 | 33.2% | 65.5% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct -Linn PioneerLinn Pioneer | 385 | 697 | 23 | 1,105 | 34.8% | 63.1% | R+28.2 |
| Precinct -Dayton FairfieldDayton Fairfield | 236 | 566 | 17 | 819 | 28.8% | 69.1% | R+40.3 |
| Precinct -Massillon SpringfieldMassillon Springfield | 215 | 573 | 13 | 801 | 26.8% | 71.5% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct -Gower SpringdaleGower Springdale | 397 | 391 | 6 | 794 | 50.0% | 49.2% | D+0.8 |
| Precinct -Tipton 3Tipton 3 | 267 | 298 | 8 | 573 | 46.6% | 52.0% | R+5.4 |
| Precinct -Fremont Red OakFremont Red Oak | 183 | 365 | 13 | 561 | 32.6% | 65.1% | R+32.4 |
| Precinct -Tipton 1Tipton 1 | 218 | 292 | 6 | 516 | 42.2% | 56.6% | R+14.3 |
| Precinct -Tipton 2Tipton 2 | 243 | 260 | 4 | 507 | 47.9% | 51.3% | R+3.4 |
| Precinct -InlandInland | 84 | 317 | 3 | 404 | 20.8% | 78.5% | R+57.7 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +4.7% |
| 1896 | −11.8% |
| 1900 | −12.3% |
| 1904 | −16.2% |
| 1908 | −10.3% |
| 1912 | +20.4% |
| 1916 | −28.1% |
| 1920 | −58.5% |
| 1924 | −41.3% |
| 1928 | −31.5% |
| 1932 | +17.9% |
| 1936 | +8.5% |
| 1940 | −25.2% |
| 1944 | −28.2% |
| 1948 | −14.2% |
| 1952 | −43.2% |
| 1956 | −29.5% |
| 1960 | −23.9% |
| 1964 | +19.5% |
| 1968 | −23.9% |
| 1972 | −28.3% |
| 1976 | −12.2% |
| 1980 | −23.2% |
| 1984 | −19.8% |
| 1988 | +8.8% |
| 1992 | +4.0% |
| 1996 | +11.6% |
| 2000 | +0.0% |
| 2004 | −1.3% |
| 2008 | +9.6% |
| 2012 | +4.6% |
| 2016 | −17.6% |
| 2020 | −17.0% |
| 2024 | −21.7% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 7.1 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 12,950 | 3,813 | 3,461 | 5,673 | 3 |
| 2010 | 12,691 | 3,571 | 3,904 | 5,207 | 9 |
| 2012 | 12,496 | 3,503 | 3,867 | 5,112 | 14 |
| 2014 | 12,270 | 3,354 | 3,843 | 5,049 | 24 |
| 2016 | 12,328 | 3,335 | 4,041 | 4,883 | 69 |
| 2018 | 12,418 | 3,305 | 3,970 | 5,062 | 81 |
| 2020 | 13,075 | 3,603 | 4,748 | 4,610 | 114 |
| 2022 | 12,898 | 3,387 | 4,800 | 4,598 | 113 |
| 2024 | 13,307 | 3,174 | 5,127 | 4,887 | 119 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+87 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +128 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,469 in average income, against $83,522 for residents who stayed — 35% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+11.0 on average — 33 points more Democratic-leaning than Cedar County, IA itself (R+21.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Johnson County, IA122D+37.8
- Linn County, IA70D+9.9
- Muscatine County, IA63R+14.9
- Scott County, IA49R+3.9
- Jones County, IA22R+26.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Johnson County, IA101
- Linn County, IA81
- Scott County, IA66
- Muscatine County, IA53
- Clinton County, IA23
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −105 |
| 2012 | −77 |
| 2013 | −91 |
| 2014 | +35 |
| 2015 | −23 |
| 2016 | +97 |
| 2017 | +125 |
| 2018 | +69 |
| 2019 | +42 |
| 2021 | −17 |
| 2022 | −16 |
| 2023 | +2 |
| 2024 | 0 |
| 2025 | +87 |
Cedar County's roughly 18,000 residents are concentrated in small agricultural towns, and its presidential margins have widened consistently over the past three cycles, reaching R+21.8 in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 20.4 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 58.5 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.7 points.
A population of 18,349, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,602 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Washington County and Jones County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cedar County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.