akashic
1876–2024
Lucas County, Iowa
Lucas County·Iowa

Lucas County was solidly one party for decades. In the last twenty years, it flipped.

One of Iowa's most lopsided rural counties in recent cycles

18762024·38 elections
Lucas County, Iowa · en:User:Cburnett · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+48
in 2024
Archetype
Populist
since the recent cycles
Population
8,716
2024 ACS
Most similar
Wayne County
IA · similarity 1.00
7 precincts · 4,646 votes cast
Trump · R+48
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−48.0%
1,1693,4004,646
2020R
−43.3%
1,2843,2874,630
2016R
−37.3%
1,2392,8774,392
2012R
−6.2%
1,9872,2544,323
2008R
−6.7%
2,0292,3304,471
2004R
−12.2%
1,9872,5434,571
2000R
−7.6%
1,9342,2624,303
1996D
+13.8%
2,1681,5864,209
1992D
+7.2%
2,0721,7344,674
1988D
+16.0%
2,4541,7764,243
1984R
−4.1%
2,4222,6305,085
1980R
−12.3%
1,9892,5934,929
1976D
+13.5%
2,7332,0714,894
1972R
−23.3%
1,7592,8514,690
1968R
−12.6%
1,9422,5434,782
1964D
+26.1%
3,3101,9355,260
1960R
−19.9%
2,3443,5125,865
1956R
−16.6%
2,4313,3975,832
1952R
−27.4%
2,2173,9216,215
1948D
+0.7%
2,6972,6565,475
1944R
−10.7%
2,5263,1395,713
1940R
−7.7%
3,2553,8067,149
1936D
+4.9%
3,7733,4147,382
1932D
+17.6%
3,4342,3815,976
1928R
−33.3%
1,8883,8115,773
1924R
−39.4%
8243,2886,246
1920R
−42.0%
1,4633,7755,506
1916R
−3.9%
1,5361,6723,490
1912D
+1.0%
9689392,924
1908R
−15.5%
1,2671,7573,171
1904R
−40.2%
8782,2593,437
1900R
−19.1%
1,4882,2253,864
1896R
−6.7%
1,6211,8593,546
1892R
−15.7%
1,0871,5502,948
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Mainline Protestant
7.3%
Methodist
7.1%
Catholic & Orthodox
6.3%
Other Christian
4.1%
Baptist
3.4%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.4%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 70.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Lucas County's small, aging population and deep rural character have pushed its presidential margins steadily rightward over two decades, reaching a 48-point Republican gap in 2024 — among the widest in the state.

The Democratic margin in Lucas County peaked at twenty-six points in 1964. By 2000 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was forty-eight points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.

The economic context is the key. Lucas County's median household income of $61,793 sits well below state and national norms, and 15% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Wayne County and Ringgold County.