Akashic

county

Lucas County, IA

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1892–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1892 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

German25.5%30.5%12.5%

Irish14.9%12.8%9.4%

English13.7%10.2%9.5%

American5.8%4.6%5.3%

Dutch2.7%2.7%—

Norwegian2.3%4.1%—

Ukrainian1.9%——

Swedish1.8%1.9%—

Honduran1.9%0.2%0.3%

Mexican0.6%5.0%11.3%

Spaniard0.2%——

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Lucas County	Iowa	United States
Median age	41.9	38.8	39.1
Age 18–24	6.5%	10.0%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	22.1%	18.1%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Lucas County	Iowa	United States
Median household income	$61,793	$75,059	$84,427
Poverty rate	14.9%	11.1%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	15.8%	31.8%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Lucas County	Iowa	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	7.4%	9.2%	22.3%
Spanish	3.0%	4.7%	13.6%
German or other West Germanic	2.1%	0.6%	0.5%
Russian, Polish, or other Slavic	1.3%	0.4%	0.7%

Religious landscape

Measure	Lucas County	Iowa	United States
Catholic	6.3%	14.7%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	9.8%	10.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	70.4%	55.2%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	13.5%	15.8%	5.2%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 71.6% of 6,531 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic25.2%1,169TrumpRepublican73.2%3,400KennedyWe The People1.2%56

R+48.0

Lead: 2,231
Total: 4,646
vs nation: R+46.5
Turnout: 71.6%

BidenDemocratic27.7%1,284TrumpRepublican71.0%3,287JorgensenLibertarian0.6%30

R+43.3

Lead: 2,003
Total: 4,630
vs nation: R+47.7
Turnout: 72.3%

ClintonDemocratic28.2%1,239TrumpRepublican65.5%2,877JohnsonLibertarian2.6%115

R+37.3

Lead: 1,638
Total: 4,392
vs nation: R+39.4
Turnout: 67.0%

ObamaDemocratic46.0%1,987RomneyRepublican52.1%2,254JohnsonLibertarian0.5%20

R+6.2

Lead: 267
Total: 4,323
vs nation: R+10.0
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic45.4%2,029McCainRepublican52.1%2,330OtherAll other candidates2.5%112

R+6.7

Lead: 301
Total: 4,471
vs nation: R+14.0
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic43.5%1,987BushRepublican55.6%2,543OtherAll other candidates0.9%41

R+12.2

Lead: 556
Total: 4,571
vs nation: R+9.7
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic44.9%1,934BushRepublican52.6%2,262NaderGreen1.5%65

R+7.6

Lead: 328
Total: 4,303
vs nation: R+8.1
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic51.5%2,168DoleRepublican37.7%1,586PerotReform10.3%433

D+13.8

Lead: 582
Total: 4,209
vs nation: D+5.3
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+48.0MIT Election Lab
Population: 8,7162024 5-year
Median household income: $61,7932024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 94.0%2024 5-year
Black: 0.3%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 2.9%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+26.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+48.0 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Adair County, IA · twin score 94.9

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 71.6%4,676 participants ÷ 6,531 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +19.6 ptsVolatile
Drop-off versus state: -1.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 52.0%–56.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	4,392	6,560	67.0%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	3,599	6,430	56.0%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	4,648	6,432	72.3%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	3,480	6,604	52.7%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	4,676	6,531	71.6%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

7 precincts · 4,639 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Lucas County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -Chariton Ward #2Chariton Ward #2	268	671	29	968	27.7%	69.3%	R+41.6
Precinct -Chariton Ward #1Chariton Ward #1	282	663	10	955	29.5%	69.4%	R+39.9
Precinct -Lucas PrecinctLucas Precinct	130	471	3	604	21.5%	78.0%	R+56.5
Precinct -Williamson PrecinctWilliamson Precinct	142	436	8	586	24.2%	74.4%	R+50.2
Precinct -Pin Oak MarshPin Oak Marsh	123	418	8	549	22.4%	76.1%	R+53.7
Precinct -Russell PrecinctRussell Precinct	112	390	5	507	22.1%	76.9%	R+54.8
Precinct -Extension PrecinctExtension Precinct	112	351	7	470	23.8%	74.7%	R+50.9

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	−15.7%
1896	−6.7%
1900	−19.1%
1904	−40.2%
1908	−15.5%
1912	+1.0%
1916	−3.9%
1920	−42.0%
1924	−39.4%
1928	−33.3%
1932	+17.6%
1936	+4.9%
1940	−7.7%
1944	−10.7%
1948	+0.7%
1952	−27.4%
1956	−16.6%
1960	−19.9%
1964	+26.1%
1968	−12.6%
1972	−23.3%
1976	+13.5%
1980	−12.3%
1984	−4.1%
1988	+16.0%
1992	+7.2%
1996	+13.8%
2000	−7.6%
2004	−12.2%
2008	−6.7%
2012	−6.2%
2016	−37.3%
2020	−43.3%
2024	−48.0%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	25.2%Harris1,169	73.2%Trump3,400	1.2%Kennedy56	R+48.0	R+4.8	R+46.5	4,646
2020	R	27.7%Biden1,284	71.0%Trump3,287	0.6%Jorgensen30	R+43.3	R+6.0	R+47.7	4,630
2016	R	28.2%Clinton1,239	65.5%Trump2,877	2.6%Johnson115	R+37.3	R+31.1	R+39.4	4,392
2012	R	46.0%Obama1,987	52.1%Romney2,254	0.5%Johnson20	R+6.2	D+0.6	R+10.0	4,323
2008	R	45.4%Obama2,029	52.1%McCain2,330	2.5%	R+6.7	D+5.4	R+14.0	4,471
2004	R	43.5%Kerry1,987	55.6%Bush2,543	0.9%	R+12.2	R+4.5	R+9.7	4,571
2000	R	44.9%Gore1,934	52.6%Bush2,262	1.5%Nader65	R+7.6	R+21.5	R+8.1	4,303
1996	D	51.5%Clinton2,168	37.7%Dole1,586	10.3%Perot433	D+13.8	D+6.6	D+5.3	4,209
1992	D	44.3%Clinton2,072	37.1%Bush1,734	18.1%Perot848	D+7.2	R+8.7	D+1.7	4,674
1988	D	57.8%Dukakis2,454	41.9%Bush1,776	0.3%	D+16.0	D+20.1	D+23.7	4,243
1984	R	47.6%Mondale2,422	51.7%Reagan2,630	0.6%	R+4.1	D+8.2	D+14.1	5,085
1980	R	40.4%Carter1,989	52.6%Reagan2,593	7.0%	R+12.3	R+25.8	R+2.5	4,929
1976	D	55.8%Carter2,733	42.3%Ford2,071	1.8%	D+13.5	D+36.8	D+11.5	4,894
1972	R	37.5%McGovern1,759	60.8%Nixon2,851	1.7%	R+23.3	R+10.7	R+0.1	4,690
1968	R	40.6%Humphrey1,942	53.2%Nixon2,543	6.2%	R+12.6	R+38.7	R+11.9	4,782
1964	D	62.9%Johnson3,310	36.8%Goldwater1,935	0.3%	D+26.1	D+46.1	D+3.6	5,260
1960	R	40.0%Kennedy2,344	59.9%Nixon3,512	0.2%	R+19.9	R+3.4	R+20.1	5,865
1956	R	41.7%Stevenson2,431	58.2%Eisenhower3,397	0.1%	R+16.6	D+10.9	R+1.2	5,832
1952	R	35.7%Stevenson2,217	63.1%Eisenhower3,921	1.2%	R+27.4	R+28.2	R+16.7	6,215
1948	D	49.3%Truman2,697	48.5%Dewey2,656	2.2%	D+0.7	D+11.5	R+3.7	5,475
1944	R	44.2%Roosevelt2,526	54.9%Dewey3,139	0.8%	R+10.7	R+3.0	R+18.2	5,713
1940	R	45.5%Roosevelt3,255	53.2%Willkie3,806	1.2%	R+7.7	R+12.6	R+17.7	7,149
1936	D	51.1%Roosevelt3,773	46.2%Landon3,414	2.6%	D+4.9	R+12.8	R+19.4	7,382
1932	D	57.5%Roosevelt3,434	39.8%Hoover2,381	2.7%	D+17.6	D+50.9	R+0.2	5,976
1928	R	32.7%Smith1,888	66.0%Hoover3,811	1.3%	R+33.3	D+6.1	R+15.8	5,773
1924	R	13.2%Davis824	52.6%Coolidge3,288	34.1%La Follette2,130	R+39.4	D+2.5	R+14.3	6,246
1920	R	26.6%Cox1,463	68.6%Harding3,775	4.9%	R+42.0	R+38.1	R+15.8	5,506
1916	R	44.0%Wilson1,536	47.9%Hughes1,672	8.1%	R+3.9	R+4.9	R+7.0	3,490
1912	O	33.1%Wilson968	32.1%Taft939	34.8%	Roosevelt +1.7	D+16.4	R+18.6	2,924
1908	R	40.0%Bryan1,267	55.4%Taft1,757	4.6%	R+15.5	D+24.7	R+5.9	3,171
1904	R	25.5%Parker878	65.7%Roosevelt2,259	8.7%	R+40.2	R+21.1	R+20.5	3,437
1900	R	38.5%Bryan1,488	57.6%McKinley2,225	3.9%	R+19.1	R+12.4	R+11.5	3,864
1896	R	45.7%Bryan1,621	52.4%McKinley1,859	1.9%	R+6.7	D+9.0	R+0.6	3,546
1892	R	36.9%Cleveland1,087	52.6%Harrison1,550	10.5%	R+15.7	—	R+17.4	2,948
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	27.2%1,216	72.8%3,259	4,475
2020	R	31.0%1,297	69.0%2,892	4,189
2018	R	38.1%1,295	61.9%2,106	3,401

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2022	R	27.2%937	72.8%2,513	3,450
2020Class II	R	28.7%Theresa Greenfield1,302	68.4%Joni Ernst3,105	4,542
2016Class III	R	25.0%Patty Judge1,068	71.6%Chuck Grassley3,064	4,277
2014Class II	R	32.3%Bruce Braley1,029	61.1%Joni Ernst1,944	3,183
2010Class III	R	27.3%Roxanne Conlin967	69.8%Chuck Grassley2,470	3,538
2008Class II	D	53.6%Tom Harkin2,360	46.3%Christopher Reed2,039	4,400
2004Class III	R	23.5%Arthur Small1,052	75.5%Chuck Grassley3,381	4,480
2002Class II	D	53.9%Tom Harkin1,707	44.2%Greg Ganske1,399	3,165
1998Class III	R	25.3%David Osterberg769	74.1%Chuck Grassley2,250	3,038
1996Class II	D	49.9%Tom Harkin1,948	49.2%Jim Ross Lightfoot1,919	3,904
1992Class III	R	25.7%Jean Lloyd-Jones1,156	72.3%Chuck Grassley3,253	4,497
1990Class II	D	62.5%Tom Harkin2,231	37.4%Tom Tauke1,336	3,569
1986Class III	R	33.1%John P. Roehrick1,167	66.7%Chuck Grassley2,353	3,530
1984Class II	D	58.0%Tom Harkin2,858	41.4%Roger W. Jepsen2,039	4,926
1980Class III	R	43.6%John C. Culver2,089	55.7%Chuck Grassley2,668	4,788
1978Class II	R	45.5%Dick Clark1,483	53.5%Roger W. Jepsen1,742	3,257
1974Class III	D	50.3%John C. Culver1,817	49.3%David M. Stanley1,783	3,614
1972Class II	D	50.3%Dick Clark2,343	49.3%Jack Miller2,295	4,659
1968Class III	D	51.2%Harold E. Hughes2,360	48.8%David M. Stanley2,246	4,607
1966Class II	R	38.8%E.B. Smith1,526	60.0%Jack Miller2,358	3,933
1962Class III	R	48.3%E.B. Smith1,989	51.7%Bourke Hickenlooper2,127	4,116
1960Class II	R	46.8%Herschel Loveless2,692	53.2%Jack Miller3,056	5,748
1956Class III	R	47.1%R.M. Evans2,645	52.9%Bourke Hickenlooper2,973	5,618
1954Class II	R	49.4%Guy M. Gillette2,495	50.4%Thomas E. Martin2,545	5,048
1950Class III	R	43.2%Albert J. Loveland2,079	56.1%Bourke Hickenlooper2,699	4,811
1948Class II	D	54.2%Guy M. Gillette2,910	44.5%George A. Wilson2,386	5,366
1944Class III	R	45.1%Guy M. Gillette2,522	54.4%Bourke Hickenlooper3,044	5,598
1942Class II	R	40.9%Clyde L. Herring1,789	58.7%George A. Wilson2,569	4,377
1938Class III	R	44.1%Guy M. Gillette2,242	55.0%Lester Dickinson2,799	5,087
1936Class II	R	47.5%Clyde L. Herring3,242	50.8%Lester Dickinson3,463	6,821
1932Class III	D	50.5%Richard L. Murphy2,863	42.4%Henry Field2,405	5,674
1930Class II	R	39.5%Daniel F. Steck1,274	59.8%Lester Dickinson1,928	3,222
1926Class III	R	37.1%Claude R. Porter1,417	62.9%Smith W. Brookhart2,405	3,824
1924Class II	R	34.5%Daniel F. Steck1,964	65.5%Smith W. Brookhart3,726	5,690
1920Class III	R	43.7%Claude R. Porter2,308	55.8%Albert B. Cummins2,950	5,285
1918Class II	R	32.4%Charles R. Keyes773	67.6%William S. Kenyon1,614	2,387
1914Class III	R	39.5%Maurice Connolly1,148	46.2%Albert B. Cummins1,344	2,906

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
1936Special · Class III	R	42.6%Guy M. Gillette2,918	55.9%Berry F. Halden3,826	6,846
1922Special · Class II	R	26.8%Clyde L. Herring1,152	73.2%Smith W. Brookhart3,145	4,297

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2022	R	22.7%Deidre Dejear782	75.4%Kim Reynolds2,599	3,449
2018	R	32.7%Fred Hubbell/Rita R Hart1,172	65.2%Kim Reynolds/Adam Gregg2,335	3,581
2014	R	29.4%Jack Hatch945	65.4%Terry Branstad2,102	3,212
2010	R	36.2%Chet Culver1,295	57.6%Terry Branstad2,063	3,580
2006	D	49.8%Chet Culver1,687	49.0%Jim Nussle1,659	3,388
2002	D	52.7%Tom Vilsack1,665	45.4%Doug Gross1,435	3,161
1998	R	49.1%Tom Vilsack1,474	50.0%Jim Ross Lightfoot1,502	3,004
1994	R	40.8%Bonnie Campbell1,460	58.1%Terry Branstad2,081	3,582
1990	R	40.2%Donald Avenson1,453	59.5%Terry Branstad2,149	3,610
1986	R	45.6%Lowell Junkins1,630	54.3%Terry Branstad1,939	3,571
1982	R	44.7%Roxanne Conlin1,824	54.5%Terry Branstad2,225	4,081
1978	R	48.7%Jerome D. Fitzgerald1,608	51.3%Robert D. Ray1,695	3,305

voter registration

Registered voters

By party of registration, over time

Party registration · 2024R+33.6

Presidential vote · 2024R+48.0

Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 14 points more Democratic.

DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties

Voter registration in Lucas County, IA
Year	Total registered	Democratic	Republican	Unaffiliated	Other
2008	6,402	1,887	2,185	2,328	2
2010	6,405	1,744	2,260	2,399	2
2012	6,290	1,601	2,268	2,419	2
2014	6,064	1,465	2,338	2,257	4
2016	6,000	1,388	2,421	2,178	13
2018	5,932	1,315	2,410	2,186	21
2020	6,065	1,345	2,659	2,025	36
2022	6,049	1,187	2,837	1,990	35
2024	6,141	1,048	3,109	1,947	37

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

−10 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net −122 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $49,868 in average income, against $64,553 for residents who stayed — 23% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean D+10.8 on average — 59 points more Democratic-leaning than Lucas County, IA itself (R+48.0).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Polk County, IA37D+10.8

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Polk County, IA34
Warren County, IA27

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Lucas County, IA in Lucas County, IA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	−48
2012	−77
2013	−68
2014	−52
2015	−5
2016	−24
2017	−21
2018	+65
2019	−42
2021	+105
2022	+10
2023	+53
2024	−8
2025	−10

Lucas County's small, aging population and deep rural character have pushed its presidential margins steadily rightward over two decades, reaching a 48-point Republican gap in 2024 — among the widest in the state.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 26.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 48.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.0 points.

A population of 8,716, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,793 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Adair County and Hocking County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Adair County

Iowa

94.9twin score

12-yr trend% White% Evangelical

Hocking County

Ohio

90.4twin score

12-yr trend% unaffiliated% White≠ Scottish ancestry

Morgan County

Ohio

90.4twin score

12-yr trend% unaffiliated2012 margin

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Lucas County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19117/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

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Cities & towns in Lucas County

Chariton

R+41

4.2K residents

Iowa at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2022 Governorstate + county2022 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Lucas County, Iowa vote in 2024?

In 2024, Lucas County, Iowa voted Republican by 48.0 points (R+48.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 4,646 votes cast, 1,169 went Democratic and 3,400 went Republican.

When did Lucas County, Iowa last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Lucas County, Iowa voted Democratic was 1996.

How many people live in Lucas County, Iowa?

Lucas County, Iowa has a population of 8,716 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Lucas County, Iowa?

Median household income in Lucas County, Iowa is $61,793 — below the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.

What is the political history of Lucas County, Iowa?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lucas County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 25 went Republican.

Measure

Lucas County

Iowa

United States

Median age

41.9

38.8

39.1

Age 18–24

6.5%

10.0%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

22.1%

18.1%

17.2%

Measure

Lucas County

Iowa

United States

Median household income

$61,793

$75,059

$84,427

Poverty rate

14.9%

11.1%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

15.8%

31.8%

35.6%

Measure

Lucas County

Iowa

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

7.4%

9.2%

22.3%

Spanish

3.0%

4.7%

13.6%

German or other West Germanic

2.1%

0.6%

0.5%

Russian, Polish, or other Slavic

1.3%

0.4%

0.7%

Measure

Lucas County

Iowa

United States

Catholic

6.3%

14.7%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

9.8%

10.9%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

70.4%

55.2%

51.5%

Mainline Protestant

13.5%

15.8%

5.2%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+48.0MIT Election Lab

Population

8,7162024 5-year

Median household income

$61,7932024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

94.0%2024 5-year

Black

0.3%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

2.9%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+26.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+48.0 in 2024MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Adair County, IA · twin score 94.9

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

4,392

6,560

67.0%

A/A

2018 · Midterm

3,599

6,430

56.0%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

4,648

6,432

72.3%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

3,480

6,604

52.7%

A/A

2024 · Presidential

4,676

6,531

71.6%

A/A

Lucas County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -Chariton Ward #2Chariton Ward #2

268

671

968

27.7%

69.3%

R+41.6

Precinct -Chariton Ward #1Chariton Ward #1

282

663

955

29.5%

69.4%

R+39.9

Precinct -Lucas PrecinctLucas Precinct

130

471

604

21.5%

78.0%

R+56.5

Precinct -Williamson PrecinctWilliamson Precinct

142

436

586

24.2%

74.4%

R+50.2

Precinct -Pin Oak MarshPin Oak Marsh

123

418

549

22.4%

76.1%

R+53.7

Precinct -Russell PrecinctRussell Precinct

112

390

507

22.1%

76.9%

R+54.8

Precinct -Extension PrecinctExtension Precinct

112

351

470

23.8%

74.7%

R+50.9

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	−15.7%
1896	−6.7%
1900	−19.1%
1904	−40.2%
1908	−15.5%
1912	+1.0%
1916	−3.9%
1920	−42.0%
1924	−39.4%
1928	−33.3%
1932	+17.6%
1936	+4.9%
1940	−7.7%
1944	−10.7%
1948	+0.7%
1952	−27.4%
1956	−16.6%
1960	−19.9%
1964	+26.1%
1968	−12.6%
1972	−23.3%
1976	+13.5%
1980	−12.3%
1984	−4.1%
1988	+16.0%
1992	+7.2%
1996	+13.8%
2000	−7.6%
2004	−12.2%
2008	−6.7%
2012	−6.2%
2016	−37.3%
2020	−43.3%
2024	−48.0%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

25.2%Harris1,169

73.2%Trump3,400

1.2%Kennedy56

R+48.0

R+4.8

R+46.5

4,646

2020

27.7%Biden1,284

71.0%Trump3,287

0.6%Jorgensen30

R+43.3

R+6.0

R+47.7

4,630

2016

28.2%Clinton1,239

65.5%Trump2,877

2.6%Johnson115

R+37.3

R+31.1

R+39.4

4,392

2012

46.0%Obama1,987

52.1%Romney2,254

0.5%Johnson20

R+6.2

D+0.6

R+10.0

4,323

2008

45.4%Obama2,029

52.1%McCain2,330

2.5%

R+6.7

D+5.4

R+14.0

4,471

2004

43.5%Kerry1,987

55.6%Bush2,543

0.9%

R+12.2

R+4.5

R+9.7

4,571

2000

44.9%Gore1,934

52.6%Bush2,262

1.5%Nader65

R+7.6

R+21.5

R+8.1

4,303

1996

51.5%Clinton2,168

37.7%Dole1,586

10.3%Perot433

D+13.8

D+6.6

D+5.3

4,209

1992

44.3%Clinton2,072

37.1%Bush1,734

18.1%Perot848

D+7.2

R+8.7

D+1.7

4,674

1988

57.8%Dukakis2,454

41.9%Bush1,776

0.3%

D+16.0

D+20.1

D+23.7

4,243

1984

47.6%Mondale2,422

51.7%Reagan2,630

0.6%

R+4.1

D+8.2

D+14.1

5,085

1980

40.4%Carter1,989

52.6%Reagan2,593

7.0%

R+12.3

R+25.8

R+2.5

4,929

1976

55.8%Carter2,733

42.3%Ford2,071

1.8%

D+13.5

D+36.8

D+11.5

4,894

1972

37.5%McGovern1,759

60.8%Nixon2,851

1.7%

R+23.3

R+10.7

R+0.1

4,690

1968

40.6%Humphrey1,942

53.2%Nixon2,543

6.2%

R+12.6

R+38.7

R+11.9

4,782

1964

62.9%Johnson3,310

36.8%Goldwater1,935

0.3%

D+26.1

D+46.1

D+3.6

5,260

1960

40.0%Kennedy2,344

59.9%Nixon3,512

0.2%

R+19.9

R+3.4

R+20.1

5,865

1956

41.7%Stevenson2,431

58.2%Eisenhower3,397

0.1%

R+16.6

D+10.9

R+1.2

5,832

1952

35.7%Stevenson2,217

63.1%Eisenhower3,921

1.2%

R+27.4

R+28.2

R+16.7

6,215

1948

49.3%Truman2,697

48.5%Dewey2,656

2.2%

D+0.7

D+11.5

R+3.7

5,475

1944

44.2%Roosevelt2,526

54.9%Dewey3,139

0.8%

R+10.7

R+3.0

R+18.2

5,713

1940

45.5%Roosevelt3,255

53.2%Willkie3,806

1.2%

R+7.7

R+12.6

R+17.7

7,149

1936

51.1%Roosevelt3,773

46.2%Landon3,414

2.6%

D+4.9

R+12.8

R+19.4

7,382

1932

57.5%Roosevelt3,434

39.8%Hoover2,381

2.7%

D+17.6

D+50.9

R+0.2

5,976

1928

32.7%Smith1,888

66.0%Hoover3,811

1.3%

R+33.3

D+6.1

R+15.8

5,773

1924

13.2%Davis824

52.6%Coolidge3,288

34.1%La Follette2,130

R+39.4

D+2.5

R+14.3

6,246

1920

26.6%Cox1,463

68.6%Harding3,775

4.9%

R+42.0

R+38.1

R+15.8

5,506

1916

44.0%Wilson1,536

47.9%Hughes1,672

8.1%

R+3.9

R+4.9

R+7.0

3,490

1912

33.1%Wilson968

32.1%Taft939

34.8%

Roosevelt +1.7

D+16.4

R+18.6

2,924

1908

40.0%Bryan1,267

55.4%Taft1,757

4.6%

R+15.5

D+24.7

R+5.9

3,171

1904

25.5%Parker878

65.7%Roosevelt2,259

8.7%

R+40.2

R+21.1

R+20.5

3,437

1900

38.5%Bryan1,488

57.6%McKinley2,225

3.9%

R+19.1

R+12.4

R+11.5

3,864

1896

45.7%Bryan1,621

52.4%McKinley1,859

1.9%

R+6.7

D+9.0

R+0.6

3,546

1892

36.9%Cleveland1,087

52.6%Harrison1,550

10.5%

R+15.7

—

R+17.4

2,948

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

27.2%1,216

72.8%3,259

4,475

2020

31.0%1,297

69.0%2,892

4,189

2018

38.1%1,295

61.9%2,106

3,401

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2022

27.2%937

72.8%2,513

3,450

2020Class II

28.7%Theresa Greenfield1,302

68.4%Joni Ernst3,105

4,542

2016Class III

25.0%Patty Judge1,068

71.6%Chuck Grassley3,064

4,277

2014Class II

32.3%Bruce Braley1,029

61.1%Joni Ernst1,944

3,183

2010Class III

27.3%Roxanne Conlin967

69.8%Chuck Grassley2,470

3,538

2008Class II

53.6%Tom Harkin2,360

46.3%Christopher Reed2,039

4,400

2004Class III

23.5%Arthur Small1,052

75.5%Chuck Grassley3,381

4,480

2002Class II

53.9%Tom Harkin1,707

44.2%Greg Ganske1,399

3,165

1998Class III

25.3%David Osterberg769

74.1%Chuck Grassley2,250

3,038

1996Class II

49.9%Tom Harkin1,948

49.2%Jim Ross Lightfoot1,919

3,904

1992Class III

25.7%Jean Lloyd-Jones1,156

72.3%Chuck Grassley3,253

4,497

1990Class II

62.5%Tom Harkin2,231

37.4%Tom Tauke1,336

3,569

1986Class III

33.1%John P. Roehrick1,167

66.7%Chuck Grassley2,353

3,530

1984Class II

58.0%Tom Harkin2,858

41.4%Roger W. Jepsen2,039

4,926

1980Class III

43.6%John C. Culver2,089

55.7%Chuck Grassley2,668

4,788

1978Class II

45.5%Dick Clark1,483

53.5%Roger W. Jepsen1,742

3,257

1974Class III

50.3%John C. Culver1,817

49.3%David M. Stanley1,783

3,614

1972Class II

50.3%Dick Clark2,343

49.3%Jack Miller2,295

4,659

1968Class III

51.2%Harold E. Hughes2,360

48.8%David M. Stanley2,246

4,607

1966Class II

38.8%E.B. Smith1,526

60.0%Jack Miller2,358

3,933

1962Class III

48.3%E.B. Smith1,989

51.7%Bourke Hickenlooper2,127

4,116

1960Class II

46.8%Herschel Loveless2,692

53.2%Jack Miller3,056

5,748

1956Class III

47.1%R.M. Evans2,645

52.9%Bourke Hickenlooper2,973

5,618

1954Class II

49.4%Guy M. Gillette2,495

50.4%Thomas E. Martin2,545

5,048

1950Class III

43.2%Albert J. Loveland2,079

56.1%Bourke Hickenlooper2,699

4,811

1948Class II

54.2%Guy M. Gillette2,910

44.5%George A. Wilson2,386

5,366

1944Class III

45.1%Guy M. Gillette2,522

54.4%Bourke Hickenlooper3,044

5,598

1942Class II

40.9%Clyde L. Herring1,789

58.7%George A. Wilson2,569

4,377

1938Class III

44.1%Guy M. Gillette2,242

55.0%Lester Dickinson2,799

5,087

1936Class II

47.5%Clyde L. Herring3,242

50.8%Lester Dickinson3,463

6,821

1932Class III

50.5%Richard L. Murphy2,863

42.4%Henry Field2,405

5,674

1930Class II

39.5%Daniel F. Steck1,274

59.8%Lester Dickinson1,928

3,222

1926Class III

37.1%Claude R. Porter1,417

62.9%Smith W. Brookhart2,405

3,824

1924Class II

34.5%Daniel F. Steck1,964

65.5%Smith W. Brookhart3,726

5,690

1920Class III

43.7%Claude R. Porter2,308

55.8%Albert B. Cummins2,950

5,285

1918Class II

32.4%Charles R. Keyes773

67.6%William S. Kenyon1,614

2,387

1914Class III

39.5%Maurice Connolly1,148

46.2%Albert B. Cummins1,344

2,906

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

1936Special · Class III

42.6%Guy M. Gillette2,918

55.9%Berry F. Halden3,826

6,846

1922Special · Class II

26.8%Clyde L. Herring1,152

73.2%Smith W. Brookhart3,145

4,297

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2022

22.7%Deidre Dejear782

75.4%Kim Reynolds2,599

3,449

2018

32.7%Fred Hubbell/Rita R Hart1,172

65.2%Kim Reynolds/Adam Gregg2,335

3,581

2014

29.4%Jack Hatch945

65.4%Terry Branstad2,102

3,212

2010

36.2%Chet Culver1,295

57.6%Terry Branstad2,063

3,580

2006

49.8%Chet Culver1,687

49.0%Jim Nussle1,659

3,388

2002

52.7%Tom Vilsack1,665

45.4%Doug Gross1,435

3,161

1998

49.1%Tom Vilsack1,474

50.0%Jim Ross Lightfoot1,502

3,004

1994

40.8%Bonnie Campbell1,460

58.1%Terry Branstad2,081

3,582

1990

40.2%Donald Avenson1,453

59.5%Terry Branstad2,149

3,610

1986

45.6%Lowell Junkins1,630

54.3%Terry Branstad1,939

3,571

1982

44.7%Roxanne Conlin1,824

54.5%Terry Branstad2,225

4,081

1978

48.7%Jerome D. Fitzgerald1,608

51.3%Robert D. Ray1,695

3,305

Frequently asked questions

How did Lucas County, Iowa vote in 2024?

In 2024, Lucas County, Iowa voted Republican by 48.0 points (R+48.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 4,646 votes cast, 1,169 went Democratic and 3,400 went Republican.

When did Lucas County, Iowa last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Lucas County, Iowa voted Democratic was 1996.

How many people live in Lucas County, Iowa?

Lucas County, Iowa has a population of 8,716 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Lucas County, Iowa?

Median household income in Lucas County, Iowa is $61,793 — below the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.

What is the political history of Lucas County, Iowa?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lucas County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 25 went Republican.