Akashic

county

Warren County, IA

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1892–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1892 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

German29.9%30.5%12.5%

Irish15.8%12.8%9.4%

English14.7%10.2%9.5%

American4.9%4.6%5.3%

Dutch3.9%2.7%—

Norwegian3.8%4.1%—

Italian3.4%1.6%4.8%

French2.0%—1.6%

Mexican2.4%5.0%11.3%

Puerto Rican0.4%0.3%1.8%

Guatemalan0.3%0.4%0.5%

Spanish0.2%——

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Warren County	Iowa	United States
Median age	38.8	38.8	39.1
Age 18–24	9.0%	10.0%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	16.7%	18.1%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Warren County	Iowa	United States
Median household income	$94,588	$75,059	$84,427
Poverty rate	5.1%	11.1%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	33.3%	31.8%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Warren County	Iowa	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	2.9%	9.2%	22.3%
Spanish	1.9%	4.7%	13.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Warren County	Iowa	United States
Catholic	9.7%	14.7%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	8.6%	10.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	67.4%	55.2%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	13.3%	15.8%	5.2%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 81.3% of 40,752 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic38.8%12,712TrumpRepublican59.4%19,486KennedyWe The People0.8%265

R+20.6

Lead: 6,774
Total: 32,804
vs nation: R+19.2
Turnout: 81.3%

BidenDemocratic40.5%12,574TrumpRepublican57.3%17,782JorgensenLibertarian1.4%430

R+16.8

Lead: 5,208
Total: 31,039
vs nation: R+21.2
Turnout: 82.0%

ClintonDemocratic37.8%10,411TrumpRepublican53.9%14,814JohnsonLibertarian4.6%1,275

R+16.0

Lead: 4,403
Total: 27,507
vs nation: R+18.1
Turnout: 76.8%

ObamaDemocratic48.1%12,551RomneyRepublican50.1%13,052JohnsonLibertarian0.7%188

R+1.9

Lead: 501
Total: 26,072
vs nation: R+5.8
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic49.4%12,299McCainRepublican48.8%12,144OtherAll other candidates1.8%437

D+0.6

Lead: 155
Total: 24,880
vs nation: R+6.6
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic46.5%10,730BushRepublican52.7%12,160OtherAll other candidates0.7%163

R+6.2

Lead: 1,430
Total: 23,053
vs nation: R+3.7
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic48.4%9,521BushRepublican49.0%9,621NaderGreen1.9%371

R+0.5

Lead: 100
Total: 19,653
vs nation: R+1.0
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic52.2%9,120DoleRepublican39.5%6,905PerotReform7.3%1,267

D+12.7

Lead: 2,215
Total: 17,472
vs nation: D+4.2
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+20.6MIT Election Lab
Population: 54,4092024 5-year
Median household income: $94,5882024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 91.9%2024 5-year
Black: 0.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 3.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+28.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+45.2 in 1924MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Jefferson County, WV · twin score 79.7

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 81.3%33,123 participants ÷ 40,752 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +21.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off versus state: +0.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 60.2%–65.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	27,507	35,810	76.8%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	24,329	36,787	66.1%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	31,241	38,096	82.0%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	24,091	39,516	61.0%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	33,123	40,752	81.3%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

40 precincts · 32,662 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Warren County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -Norwalk 3Norwalk 3	823	902	14	1,739	47.3%	51.9%	R+4.5
Precinct -Norwalk 4Norwalk 4	774	936	24	1,734	44.6%	54.0%	R+9.3
Precinct -Allen 3Allen 3	669	930	19	1,618	41.3%	57.5%	R+16.1
Precinct -Norwalk 2Norwalk 2	705	750	20	1,475	47.8%	50.8%	R+3.1
Precinct -Indianola 4Indianola 4	567	651	18	1,236	45.9%	52.7%	R+6.8
Precinct -JeffersonJefferson	335	833	21	1,189	28.2%	70.1%	R+41.9
Precinct -Indianola 2Indianola 2	525	633	20	1,178	44.6%	53.7%	R+9.2
Precinct -Indianola 3Indianola 3	568	590	16	1,174	48.4%	50.3%	R+1.9
Precinct -Indianola 6Indianola 6	429	670	20	1,119	38.3%	59.9%	R+21.5
Precinct -Indianola 1Indianola 1	481	583	16	1,080	44.5%	54.0%	R+9.4
Precinct -Lincoln 1Lincoln 1	388	672	12	1,072	36.2%	62.7%	R+26.5
Precinct -ALLEN 2ALLEN 2	424	619	15	1,058	40.1%	58.5%	R+18.4
Precinct -Indianola 8Indianola 8	434	599	25	1,058	41.0%	56.6%	R+15.6
Precinct -OtterOtter	282	737	20	1,039	27.1%	70.9%	R+43.8
Precinct -Indianola 5Indianola 5	447	559	14	1,020	43.8%	54.8%	R+11.0
Precinct -Norwalk 1Norwalk 1	446	564	9	1,019	43.8%	55.3%	R+11.6
Precinct -NORWALK 6NORWALK 6	433	519	16	968	44.7%	53.6%	R+8.9
Precinct -Norwalk 5Norwalk 5	419	496	9	924	45.3%	53.7%	R+8.3
Precinct -Des Moines 73Des Moines 73	431	475	11	917	47.0%	51.8%	R+4.8
Precinct -Indianola 7Indianola 7	346	552	19	917	37.7%	60.2%	R+22.5
Precinct -Norwalk 7Norwalk 7	314	550	9	873	36.0%	63.0%	R+27.0
Precinct -White OakWhite Oak	211	530	8	749	28.2%	70.8%	R+42.6
Precinct -LinnLinn	238	457	13	708	33.6%	64.5%	R+30.9
Precinct -VirginiaVirginia	155	506	9	670	23.1%	75.5%	R+52.4
Precinct -JacksonJackson	215	443	9	667	32.2%	66.4%	R+34.2
Precinct -RichlandRichland	196	451	10	657	29.8%	68.6%	R+38.8
Precinct -Cumming/WDMCumming/WDM	251	361	9	621	40.4%	58.1%	R+17.7
Precinct -Squaw CreekSquaw Creek	116	399	7	522	22.2%	76.4%	R+54.2
Precinct -Greenfield 1Greenfield 1	207	306	0	513	40.4%	59.6%	R+19.3
Precinct -Lincoln 2Lincoln 2	120	313	6	439	27.3%	71.3%	R+44.0
Precinct -PalmyraPalmyra	108	319	7	434	24.9%	73.5%	R+48.6
Precinct -White BreastWhite Breast	96	305	14	415	23.1%	73.5%	R+50.4
Precinct -UnionUnion	97	232	4	333	29.1%	69.7%	R+40.5
Precinct -Greenfield 3Greenfield 3	126	195	3	324	38.9%	60.2%	R+21.3
Precinct -LibertyLiberty	69	242	3	314	22.0%	77.1%	R+55.1
Precinct -BelmontBelmont	40	177	3	220	18.2%	80.5%	R+62.3
Precinct -Des Moines 74Des Moines 74	78	140	1	219	35.6%	63.9%	R+28.3
Precinct -Greenfield 4Greenfield 4	60	128	5	193	31.1%	66.3%	R+35.2
Precinct -Lincoln 3Lincoln 3	47	119	4	170	27.6%	70.0%	R+42.4
Precinct -Greenfield 2Greenfield 2	42	43	2	87	48.3%	49.4%	R+1.1

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	−21.8%
1896	−12.0%
1900	−21.7%
1904	−39.4%
1908	−21.4%
1912	+0.2%
1916	−6.5%
1920	−43.1%
1924	−45.2%
1928	−40.2%
1932	−2.5%
1936	−7.2%
1940	−13.0%
1944	−12.4%
1948	−5.2%
1952	−31.8%
1956	−18.5%
1960	−18.5%
1964	+28.6%
1968	−9.0%
1972	−17.1%
1976	+11.0%
1980	−4.8%
1984	−0.6%
1988	+19.9%
1992	+7.2%
1996	+12.7%
2000	−0.5%
2004	−6.2%
2008	+0.6%
2012	−1.9%
2016	−16.0%
2020	−16.8%
2024	−20.6%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	38.8%Harris12,712	59.4%Trump19,486	0.8%Kennedy265	R+20.6	R+3.9	R+19.2	32,804
2020	R	40.5%Biden12,574	57.3%Trump17,782	1.4%Jorgensen430	R+16.8	R+0.8	R+21.2	31,039
2016	R	37.8%Clinton10,411	53.9%Trump14,814	4.6%Johnson1,275	R+16.0	R+14.1	R+18.1	27,507
2012	R	48.1%Obama12,551	50.1%Romney13,052	0.7%Johnson188	R+1.9	R+2.5	R+5.8	26,072
2008	D	49.4%Obama12,299	48.8%McCain12,144	1.8%	D+0.6	D+6.8	R+6.6	24,880
2004	R	46.5%Kerry10,730	52.7%Bush12,160	0.7%	R+6.2	R+5.7	R+3.7	23,053
2000	R	48.4%Gore9,521	49.0%Bush9,621	1.9%Nader371	R+0.5	R+13.2	R+1.0	19,653
1996	D	52.2%Clinton9,120	39.5%Dole6,905	7.3%Perot1,267	D+12.7	D+5.5	D+4.2	17,472
1992	D	45.0%Clinton8,612	37.8%Bush7,242	16.8%Perot3,217	D+7.2	R+12.7	D+1.6	19,157
1988	D	59.7%Dukakis9,627	39.8%Bush6,424	0.5%	D+19.9	D+20.5	D+27.6	16,131
1984	R	49.3%Mondale8,171	50.0%Reagan8,277	0.7%	R+0.6	D+4.2	D+17.6	16,570
1980	R	42.6%Carter6,610	47.4%Reagan7,360	10.0%	R+4.8	R+15.8	D+4.9	15,519
1976	D	54.2%Carter7,653	43.2%Ford6,099	2.5%	D+11.0	D+28.1	D+9.0	14,108
1972	R	40.2%McGovern5,143	57.3%Nixon7,332	2.6%	R+17.1	R+8.1	D+6.1	12,804
1968	R	41.3%Humphrey4,613	50.3%Nixon5,619	8.4%	R+9.0	R+37.6	R+8.3	11,171
1964	D	64.1%Johnson6,639	35.5%Goldwater3,679	0.3%	D+28.6	D+47.1	D+6.0	10,351
1960	R	40.8%Kennedy4,136	59.2%Nixon6,013	0.0%	R+18.5	±0.0	R+18.7	10,149
1956	R	40.6%Stevenson3,729	59.2%Eisenhower5,430	0.2%	R+18.5	D+13.3	R+3.1	9,174
1952	R	33.7%Stevenson3,042	65.6%Eisenhower5,911	0.7%	R+31.8	R+26.6	R+21.1	9,017
1948	R	45.8%Truman3,481	51.0%Dewey3,876	3.3%	R+5.2	D+7.2	R+9.7	7,605
1944	R	43.4%Roosevelt3,319	55.8%Dewey4,266	0.7%	R+12.4	D+0.6	R+19.9	7,641
1940	R	43.2%Roosevelt3,856	56.2%Willkie5,016	0.6%	R+13.0	R+5.8	R+22.9	8,923
1936	R	45.6%Roosevelt4,011	52.7%Landon4,642	1.7%	R+7.2	R+4.7	R+31.4	8,805
1932	R	47.8%Roosevelt3,542	50.3%Hoover3,725	1.9%	R+2.5	D+37.8	R+20.3	7,408
1928	R	29.5%Smith2,239	69.7%Hoover5,294	0.8%	R+40.2	D+4.9	R+22.8	7,591
1924	R	16.9%Davis1,274	62.1%Coolidge4,683	20.9%La Follette1,579	R+45.2	R+2.0	R+20.0	7,543
1920	R	27.4%Cox2,066	70.5%Harding5,323	2.1%	R+43.1	R+36.6	R+17.0	7,549
1916	R	45.7%Wilson1,910	52.2%Hughes2,182	2.1%	R+6.5	R+6.8	R+9.7	4,179
1912	D	34.5%Wilson1,396	34.2%Taft1,386	31.3%	D+0.2	D+21.6	R+19.3	4,051
1908	R	37.2%Bryan1,645	58.6%Taft2,589	4.2%	R+21.4	D+18.0	R+11.8	4,419
1904	R	26.8%Parker1,191	66.2%Roosevelt2,938	7.0%	R+39.4	R+17.6	R+19.7	4,438
1900	R	37.4%Bryan1,876	59.2%McKinley2,966	3.4%	R+21.7	R+9.8	R+14.2	5,014
1896	R	43.3%Bryan2,214	55.3%McKinley2,826	1.4%	R+12.0	D+9.8	R+5.9	5,113
1892	R	34.2%Cleveland1,475	55.9%Harrison2,414	9.9%	R+21.8	—	R+23.4	4,315
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	44.4%14,143	55.6%17,706	31,849
2020	R	43.5%12,698	56.5%16,473	29,171
2018	R	44.8%10,363	55.2%12,778	23,141

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2022	R	40.7%9,634	59.3%14,052	23,686
2020Class II	R	40.7%Theresa Greenfield12,478	56.3%Joni Ernst17,276	30,680
2016Class III	R	32.4%Patty Judge8,700	63.5%Chuck Grassley17,081	26,879
2014Class II	R	39.9%Bruce Braley7,784	55.7%Joni Ernst10,861	19,497
2010Class III	R	31.9%Roxanne Conlin6,429	65.9%Chuck Grassley13,273	20,152
2008Class II	D	57.1%Tom Harkin13,979	42.8%Christopher Reed10,471	24,467
2004Class III	R	27.4%Arthur Small6,163	71.2%Chuck Grassley16,018	22,492
2002Class II	D	56.4%Tom Harkin9,145	42.0%Greg Ganske6,819	16,227
1998Class III	R	32.4%David Osterberg4,577	66.7%Chuck Grassley9,414	14,118
1996Class II	D	52.8%Tom Harkin9,151	46.4%Jim Ross Lightfoot8,043	17,334
1992Class III	R	30.1%Jean Lloyd-Jones5,228	66.5%Chuck Grassley11,537	17,357
1990Class II	D	64.8%Tom Harkin8,865	35.2%Tom Tauke4,822	13,691
1986Class III	R	39.5%John P. Roehrick4,550	60.3%Chuck Grassley6,944	11,521
1984Class II	D	63.3%Tom Harkin10,331	36.0%Roger W. Jepsen5,871	16,331
1980Class III	D	51.6%John C. Culver7,834	47.4%Chuck Grassley7,200	15,180
1978Class II	D	55.3%Dick Clark5,403	43.4%Roger W. Jepsen4,244	9,772
1974Class III	D	53.5%John C. Culver5,018	45.7%David M. Stanley4,287	9,387
1972Class II	D	57.2%Dick Clark7,220	41.7%Jack Miller5,260	12,619
1968Class III	D	53.7%Harold E. Hughes5,910	46.2%David M. Stanley5,085	11,008
1966Class II	R	39.3%E.B. Smith3,069	58.6%Jack Miller4,578	7,806
1962Class III	R	49.6%E.B. Smith3,507	50.4%Bourke Hickenlooper3,563	7,070
1960Class II	R	48.0%Herschel Loveless4,790	52.0%Jack Miller5,180	9,970
1956Class III	R	48.0%R.M. Evans4,271	52.0%Bourke Hickenlooper4,626	8,897
1954Class II	R	46.7%Guy M. Gillette2,988	53.1%Thomas E. Martin3,402	6,402
1950Class III	R	41.0%Albert J. Loveland2,607	58.5%Bourke Hickenlooper3,722	6,363
1948Class II	D	52.9%Guy M. Gillette3,861	46.3%George A. Wilson3,376	7,296
1944Class III	R	44.0%Guy M. Gillette3,310	55.5%Bourke Hickenlooper4,179	7,523
1942Class II	R	40.5%Clyde L. Herring2,336	58.8%George A. Wilson3,396	5,771
1938Class III	R	42.9%Guy M. Gillette2,618	56.6%Lester Dickinson3,452	6,103
1936Class II	R	43.9%Clyde L. Herring3,686	55.6%Lester Dickinson4,670	8,404
1932Class III	R	42.4%Richard L. Murphy3,077	55.4%Henry Field4,016	7,250
1930Class II	R	36.3%Daniel F. Steck1,811	63.5%Lester Dickinson3,173	4,994
1926Class III	R	43.4%Claude R. Porter2,366	56.4%Smith W. Brookhart3,075	5,449
1924Class II	R	46.4%Daniel F. Steck3,259	53.6%Smith W. Brookhart3,761	7,020
1920Class III	R	37.8%Claude R. Porter2,783	62.1%Albert B. Cummins4,575	7,365
1918Class II	R	32.5%Charles R. Keyes958	67.5%William S. Kenyon1,993	2,951
1914Class III	R	41.8%Maurice Connolly1,494	48.1%Albert B. Cummins1,718	3,572

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
1936Special · Class III	R	42.3%Guy M. Gillette3,476	57.4%Berry F. Halden4,715	8,214
1922Special · Class II	R	32.9%Clyde L. Herring1,835	67.1%Smith W. Brookhart3,738	5,573

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2022	R	35.8%Deidre Dejear8,531	61.4%Kim Reynolds14,631	23,818
2018	R	45.1%Fred Hubbell/Rita R Hart10,942	52.8%Kim Reynolds/Adam Gregg12,801	24,251
2014	R	36.4%Jack Hatch7,123	58.8%Terry Branstad11,509	19,565
2010	R	41.7%Chet Culver8,431	52.7%Terry Branstad10,653	20,204
2006	D	52.0%Chet Culver9,051	46.5%Jim Nussle8,103	17,421
2002	D	55.2%Tom Vilsack8,931	42.6%Doug Gross6,891	16,177
1998	D	54.1%Tom Vilsack7,676	45.2%Jim Ross Lightfoot6,421	14,198
1994	R	45.0%Bonnie Campbell6,465	53.8%Terry Branstad7,735	14,377
1990	R	44.1%Donald Avenson6,018	55.5%Terry Branstad7,581	13,648
1986	D	52.5%Lowell Junkins6,143	47.4%Terry Branstad5,542	11,690
1982	D	54.4%Roxanne Conlin7,045	44.9%Terry Branstad5,807	12,942
1978	R	46.6%Jerome D. Fitzgerald4,702	52.7%Robert D. Ray5,313	10,091

voter registration

Registered voters

By party of registration, over time

Party registration · 2024R+13.1

Presidential vote · 2024R+20.6

Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 7.5 points more Democratic.

DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties

Voter registration in Warren County, IA
Year	Total registered	Democratic	Republican	Unaffiliated	Other
2008	31,925	11,471	9,602	10,843	9
2010	32,637	10,940	10,503	11,165	29
2012	33,416	10,567	11,276	11,536	37
2014	33,814	10,150	11,444	12,155	65
2016	35,174	10,393	12,389	12,243	149
2018	35,865	10,489	12,234	12,877	265
2020	38,121	11,661	14,168	11,964	328
2022	39,233	11,182	14,817	12,873	361
2024	40,933	10,717	16,098	13,719	399

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

+720 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net +7,919 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $74,381 in average income, against $103,699 for residents who stayed — 28% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean D+1.4 on average — 22 points more Democratic-leaning than Warren County, IA itself (R+20.6).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Polk County, IA843D+10.8
Dallas County, IA165R+4.7
Marion County, IA57R+37.6
Madison County, IA51R+38.5
Story County, IA42D+10.3
Lucas County, IA27R+48.0

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Polk County, IA648
Dallas County, IA132
Madison County, IA57
Marion County, IA53
Story County, IA31
Jasper County, IA24

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Warren County, IA in Warren County, IA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+153
2012	+88
2013	+264
2014	+335
2015	+486
2016	+717
2017	+606
2018	+781
2019	+308
2021	+882
2022	+751
2023	+842
2024	+986
2025	+720

Warren County sits on the southern edge of the Des Moines metro, and its rapid exurban growth has coincided with a consistent rightward trend, delivering a 20-point Republican margin in 2024 after posting much narrower results in earlier cycles.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 28.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 45.2 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 20.6 points.

A population of 54,409, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $94,588 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Jefferson County and Madison County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Jefferson County

West Virginia

79.7twin score

median income2000–2004 trajectory% unaffiliated≠ Scottish ancestry

Madison County

Iowa

76.7twin score

median income% White% unaffiliated≠ Scottish ancestry

Scott County

Iowa

76.5twin score

2000–2004 trajectory% Evangelicalcollege share≠ Swedish ancestry

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

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Cities & towns in Warren County

Iowa at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2022 Governorstate + county2022 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Warren County, Iowa vote in 2024?

In 2024, Warren County, Iowa voted Republican by 20.6 points (R+20.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 32,804 votes cast, 12,712 went Democratic and 19,486 went Republican.

When did Warren County, Iowa last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Warren County, Iowa voted Democratic was 2008.

How many people live in Warren County, Iowa?

Warren County, Iowa has a population of 54,409 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Warren County, Iowa?

Median household income in Warren County, Iowa is $94,588 — above the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.

What is the political history of Warren County, Iowa?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Warren County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.

Measure

Warren County

Iowa

United States

Median age

38.8

39.1

Age 18–24

9.0%

10.0%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

16.7%

18.1%

17.2%

Measure

Warren County

Iowa

United States

Median household income

$94,588

$75,059

$84,427

Poverty rate

5.1%

11.1%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

33.3%

31.8%

35.6%

Measure

Warren County

Iowa

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

2.9%

9.2%

22.3%

Spanish

1.9%

4.7%

13.6%

Measure

Warren County

Iowa

United States

Catholic

9.7%

14.7%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

8.6%

10.9%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

67.4%

55.2%

51.5%

Mainline Protestant

13.3%

15.8%

5.2%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+20.6MIT Election Lab

Population

54,4092024 5-year

Median household income

$94,5882024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

91.9%2024 5-year

Black

0.7%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

3.7%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+28.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+45.2 in 1924MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Jefferson County, WV · twin score 79.7

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

27,507

35,810

76.8%

A/A

2018 · Midterm

24,329

36,787

66.1%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

31,241

38,096

82.0%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

24,091

39,516

61.0%

A/A

2024 · Presidential

33,123

40,752

81.3%

A/A

Warren County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -Norwalk 3Norwalk 3

823

902

1,739

47.3%

51.9%

R+4.5

Precinct -Norwalk 4Norwalk 4

774

936

1,734

44.6%

54.0%

R+9.3

Precinct -Allen 3Allen 3

669

930

1,618

41.3%

57.5%

R+16.1

Precinct -Norwalk 2Norwalk 2

705

750

1,475

47.8%

50.8%

R+3.1

Precinct -Indianola 4Indianola 4

567

651

1,236

45.9%

52.7%

R+6.8

Precinct -JeffersonJefferson

335

833

1,189

28.2%

70.1%

R+41.9

Precinct -Indianola 2Indianola 2

525

633

1,178

44.6%

53.7%

R+9.2

Precinct -Indianola 3Indianola 3

568

590

1,174

48.4%

50.3%

R+1.9

Precinct -Indianola 6Indianola 6

429

670

1,119

38.3%

59.9%

R+21.5

Precinct -Indianola 1Indianola 1

481

583

1,080

44.5%

54.0%

R+9.4

Precinct -Lincoln 1Lincoln 1

388

672

1,072

36.2%

62.7%

R+26.5

Precinct -ALLEN 2ALLEN 2

424

619

1,058

40.1%

58.5%

R+18.4

Precinct -Indianola 8Indianola 8

434

599

1,058

41.0%

56.6%

R+15.6

Precinct -OtterOtter

282

737

1,039

27.1%

70.9%

R+43.8

Precinct -Indianola 5Indianola 5

447

559

1,020

43.8%

54.8%

R+11.0

Precinct -Norwalk 1Norwalk 1

446

564

1,019

43.8%

55.3%

R+11.6

Precinct -NORWALK 6NORWALK 6

433

519

968

44.7%

53.6%

R+8.9

Precinct -Norwalk 5Norwalk 5

419

496

924

45.3%

53.7%

R+8.3

Precinct -Des Moines 73Des Moines 73

431

475

917

47.0%

51.8%

R+4.8

Precinct -Indianola 7Indianola 7

346

552

917

37.7%

60.2%

R+22.5

Precinct -Norwalk 7Norwalk 7

314

550

873

36.0%

63.0%

R+27.0

Precinct -White OakWhite Oak

211

530

749

28.2%

70.8%

R+42.6

Precinct -LinnLinn

238

457

708

33.6%

64.5%

R+30.9

Precinct -VirginiaVirginia

155

506

670

23.1%

75.5%

R+52.4

Precinct -JacksonJackson

215

443

667

32.2%

66.4%

R+34.2

Precinct -RichlandRichland

196

451

657

29.8%

68.6%

R+38.8

Precinct -Cumming/WDMCumming/WDM

251

361

621

40.4%

58.1%

R+17.7

Precinct -Squaw CreekSquaw Creek

116

399

522

22.2%

76.4%

R+54.2

Precinct -Greenfield 1Greenfield 1

207

306

513

40.4%

59.6%

R+19.3

Precinct -Lincoln 2Lincoln 2

120

313

439

27.3%

71.3%

R+44.0

Precinct -PalmyraPalmyra

108

319

434

24.9%

73.5%

R+48.6

Precinct -White BreastWhite Breast

305

415

23.1%

73.5%

R+50.4

Precinct -UnionUnion

232

333

29.1%

69.7%

R+40.5

Precinct -Greenfield 3Greenfield 3

126

195

324

38.9%

60.2%

R+21.3

Precinct -LibertyLiberty

242

314

22.0%

77.1%

R+55.1

Precinct -BelmontBelmont

177

220

18.2%

80.5%

R+62.3

Precinct -Des Moines 74Des Moines 74

140

219

35.6%

63.9%

R+28.3

Precinct -Greenfield 4Greenfield 4

128

193

31.1%

66.3%

R+35.2

Precinct -Lincoln 3Lincoln 3

119

170

27.6%

70.0%

R+42.4

Precinct -Greenfield 2Greenfield 2

48.3%

49.4%

R+1.1

Presidential margin, 1892–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1892	−21.8%
1896	−12.0%
1900	−21.7%
1904	−39.4%
1908	−21.4%
1912	+0.2%
1916	−6.5%
1920	−43.1%
1924	−45.2%
1928	−40.2%
1932	−2.5%
1936	−7.2%
1940	−13.0%
1944	−12.4%
1948	−5.2%
1952	−31.8%
1956	−18.5%
1960	−18.5%
1964	+28.6%
1968	−9.0%
1972	−17.1%
1976	+11.0%
1980	−4.8%
1984	−0.6%
1988	+19.9%
1992	+7.2%
1996	+12.7%
2000	−0.5%
2004	−6.2%
2008	+0.6%
2012	−1.9%
2016	−16.0%
2020	−16.8%
2024	−20.6%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

38.8%Harris12,712

59.4%Trump19,486

0.8%Kennedy265

R+20.6

R+3.9

R+19.2

32,804

2020

40.5%Biden12,574

57.3%Trump17,782

1.4%Jorgensen430

R+16.8

R+0.8

R+21.2

31,039

2016

37.8%Clinton10,411

53.9%Trump14,814

4.6%Johnson1,275

R+16.0

R+14.1

R+18.1

27,507

2012

48.1%Obama12,551

50.1%Romney13,052

0.7%Johnson188

R+1.9

R+2.5

R+5.8

26,072

2008

49.4%Obama12,299

48.8%McCain12,144

1.8%

D+0.6

D+6.8

R+6.6

24,880

2004

46.5%Kerry10,730

52.7%Bush12,160

0.7%

R+6.2

R+5.7

R+3.7

23,053

2000

48.4%Gore9,521

49.0%Bush9,621

1.9%Nader371

R+0.5

R+13.2

R+1.0

19,653

1996

52.2%Clinton9,120

39.5%Dole6,905

7.3%Perot1,267

D+12.7

D+5.5

D+4.2

17,472

1992

45.0%Clinton8,612

37.8%Bush7,242

16.8%Perot3,217

D+7.2

R+12.7

D+1.6

19,157

1988

59.7%Dukakis9,627

39.8%Bush6,424

0.5%

D+19.9

D+20.5

D+27.6

16,131

1984

49.3%Mondale8,171

50.0%Reagan8,277

0.7%

R+0.6

D+4.2

D+17.6

16,570

1980

42.6%Carter6,610

47.4%Reagan7,360

10.0%

R+4.8

R+15.8

D+4.9

15,519

1976

54.2%Carter7,653

43.2%Ford6,099

2.5%

D+11.0

D+28.1

D+9.0

14,108

1972

40.2%McGovern5,143

57.3%Nixon7,332

2.6%

R+17.1

R+8.1

D+6.1

12,804

1968

41.3%Humphrey4,613

50.3%Nixon5,619

8.4%

R+9.0

R+37.6

R+8.3

11,171

1964

64.1%Johnson6,639

35.5%Goldwater3,679

0.3%

D+28.6

D+47.1

D+6.0

10,351

1960

40.8%Kennedy4,136

59.2%Nixon6,013

0.0%

R+18.5

±0.0

R+18.7

10,149

1956

40.6%Stevenson3,729

59.2%Eisenhower5,430

0.2%

R+18.5

D+13.3

R+3.1

9,174

1952

33.7%Stevenson3,042

65.6%Eisenhower5,911

0.7%

R+31.8

R+26.6

R+21.1

9,017

1948

45.8%Truman3,481

51.0%Dewey3,876

3.3%

R+5.2

D+7.2

R+9.7

7,605

1944

43.4%Roosevelt3,319

55.8%Dewey4,266

0.7%

R+12.4

D+0.6

R+19.9

7,641

1940

43.2%Roosevelt3,856

56.2%Willkie5,016

0.6%

R+13.0

R+5.8

R+22.9

8,923

1936

45.6%Roosevelt4,011

52.7%Landon4,642

1.7%

R+7.2

R+4.7

R+31.4

8,805

1932

47.8%Roosevelt3,542

50.3%Hoover3,725

1.9%

R+2.5

D+37.8

R+20.3

7,408

1928

29.5%Smith2,239

69.7%Hoover5,294

0.8%

R+40.2

D+4.9

R+22.8

7,591

1924

16.9%Davis1,274

62.1%Coolidge4,683

20.9%La Follette1,579

R+45.2

R+2.0

R+20.0

7,543

1920

27.4%Cox2,066

70.5%Harding5,323

2.1%

R+43.1

R+36.6

R+17.0

7,549

1916

45.7%Wilson1,910

52.2%Hughes2,182

2.1%

R+6.5

R+6.8

R+9.7

4,179

1912

34.5%Wilson1,396

34.2%Taft1,386

31.3%

D+0.2

D+21.6

R+19.3

4,051

1908

37.2%Bryan1,645

58.6%Taft2,589

4.2%

R+21.4

D+18.0

R+11.8

4,419

1904

26.8%Parker1,191

66.2%Roosevelt2,938

7.0%

R+39.4

R+17.6

R+19.7

4,438

1900

37.4%Bryan1,876

59.2%McKinley2,966

3.4%

R+21.7

R+9.8

R+14.2

5,014

1896

43.3%Bryan2,214

55.3%McKinley2,826

1.4%

R+12.0

D+9.8

R+5.9

5,113

1892

34.2%Cleveland1,475

55.9%Harrison2,414

9.9%

R+21.8

—

R+23.4

4,315

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

44.4%14,143

55.6%17,706

31,849

2020

43.5%12,698

56.5%16,473

29,171

2018

44.8%10,363

55.2%12,778

23,141

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2022

40.7%9,634

59.3%14,052

23,686

2020Class II

40.7%Theresa Greenfield12,478

56.3%Joni Ernst17,276

30,680

2016Class III

32.4%Patty Judge8,700

63.5%Chuck Grassley17,081

26,879

2014Class II

39.9%Bruce Braley7,784

55.7%Joni Ernst10,861

19,497

2010Class III

31.9%Roxanne Conlin6,429

65.9%Chuck Grassley13,273

20,152

2008Class II

57.1%Tom Harkin13,979

42.8%Christopher Reed10,471

24,467

2004Class III

27.4%Arthur Small6,163

71.2%Chuck Grassley16,018

22,492

2002Class II

56.4%Tom Harkin9,145

42.0%Greg Ganske6,819

16,227

1998Class III

32.4%David Osterberg4,577

66.7%Chuck Grassley9,414

14,118

1996Class II

52.8%Tom Harkin9,151

46.4%Jim Ross Lightfoot8,043

17,334

1992Class III

30.1%Jean Lloyd-Jones5,228

66.5%Chuck Grassley11,537

17,357

1990Class II

64.8%Tom Harkin8,865

35.2%Tom Tauke4,822

13,691

1986Class III

39.5%John P. Roehrick4,550

60.3%Chuck Grassley6,944

11,521

1984Class II

63.3%Tom Harkin10,331

36.0%Roger W. Jepsen5,871

16,331

1980Class III

51.6%John C. Culver7,834

47.4%Chuck Grassley7,200

15,180

1978Class II

55.3%Dick Clark5,403

43.4%Roger W. Jepsen4,244

9,772

1974Class III

53.5%John C. Culver5,018

45.7%David M. Stanley4,287

9,387

1972Class II

57.2%Dick Clark7,220

41.7%Jack Miller5,260

12,619

1968Class III

53.7%Harold E. Hughes5,910

46.2%David M. Stanley5,085

11,008

1966Class II

39.3%E.B. Smith3,069

58.6%Jack Miller4,578

7,806

1962Class III

49.6%E.B. Smith3,507

50.4%Bourke Hickenlooper3,563

7,070

1960Class II

48.0%Herschel Loveless4,790

52.0%Jack Miller5,180

9,970

1956Class III

48.0%R.M. Evans4,271

52.0%Bourke Hickenlooper4,626

8,897

1954Class II

46.7%Guy M. Gillette2,988

53.1%Thomas E. Martin3,402

6,402

1950Class III

41.0%Albert J. Loveland2,607

58.5%Bourke Hickenlooper3,722

6,363

1948Class II

52.9%Guy M. Gillette3,861

46.3%George A. Wilson3,376

7,296

1944Class III

44.0%Guy M. Gillette3,310

55.5%Bourke Hickenlooper4,179

7,523

1942Class II

40.5%Clyde L. Herring2,336

58.8%George A. Wilson3,396

5,771

1938Class III

42.9%Guy M. Gillette2,618

56.6%Lester Dickinson3,452

6,103

1936Class II

43.9%Clyde L. Herring3,686

55.6%Lester Dickinson4,670

8,404

1932Class III

42.4%Richard L. Murphy3,077

55.4%Henry Field4,016

7,250

1930Class II

36.3%Daniel F. Steck1,811

63.5%Lester Dickinson3,173

4,994

1926Class III

43.4%Claude R. Porter2,366

56.4%Smith W. Brookhart3,075

5,449

1924Class II

46.4%Daniel F. Steck3,259

53.6%Smith W. Brookhart3,761

7,020

1920Class III

37.8%Claude R. Porter2,783

62.1%Albert B. Cummins4,575

7,365

1918Class II

32.5%Charles R. Keyes958

67.5%William S. Kenyon1,993

2,951

1914Class III

41.8%Maurice Connolly1,494

48.1%Albert B. Cummins1,718

3,572

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

1936Special · Class III

42.3%Guy M. Gillette3,476

57.4%Berry F. Halden4,715

8,214

1922Special · Class II

32.9%Clyde L. Herring1,835

67.1%Smith W. Brookhart3,738

5,573

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2022

35.8%Deidre Dejear8,531

61.4%Kim Reynolds14,631

23,818

2018

45.1%Fred Hubbell/Rita R Hart10,942

52.8%Kim Reynolds/Adam Gregg12,801

24,251

2014

36.4%Jack Hatch7,123

58.8%Terry Branstad11,509

19,565

2010

41.7%Chet Culver8,431

52.7%Terry Branstad10,653

20,204

2006

52.0%Chet Culver9,051

46.5%Jim Nussle8,103

17,421

2002

55.2%Tom Vilsack8,931

42.6%Doug Gross6,891

16,177

1998

54.1%Tom Vilsack7,676

45.2%Jim Ross Lightfoot6,421

14,198

1994

45.0%Bonnie Campbell6,465

53.8%Terry Branstad7,735

14,377

1990

44.1%Donald Avenson6,018

55.5%Terry Branstad7,581

13,648

1986

52.5%Lowell Junkins6,143

47.4%Terry Branstad5,542

11,690

1982

54.4%Roxanne Conlin7,045

44.9%Terry Branstad5,807

12,942

1978

46.6%Jerome D. Fitzgerald4,702

52.7%Robert D. Ray5,313

10,091

Frequently asked questions

How did Warren County, Iowa vote in 2024?

In 2024, Warren County, Iowa voted Republican by 20.6 points (R+20.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 32,804 votes cast, 12,712 went Democratic and 19,486 went Republican.

When did Warren County, Iowa last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Warren County, Iowa voted Democratic was 2008.

How many people live in Warren County, Iowa?

Warren County, Iowa has a population of 54,409 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Warren County, Iowa?

Median household income in Warren County, Iowa is $94,588 — above the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.

What is the political history of Warren County, Iowa?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Warren County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.