HarrisDemocratic27.7%2,367TrumpRepublican70.8%6,047KennedyWe The People0.7%59
R+43.1- Lead
- 3,680
- Total
- 8,541
- vs nation
- R+41.6
- Turnout
- 69.4%
Akashiccounty
Clay County, IA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 69.4% of 12,399 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic29.7%2,662TrumpRepublican68.4%6,137JorgensenLibertarian1.1%101
R+38.7- Lead
- 3,475
- Total
- 8,969
- vs nation
- R+43.2
- Turnout
- 72.9%
ClintonDemocratic25.8%2,249TrumpRepublican67.5%5,877JohnsonLibertarian3.3%288
R+41.7- Lead
- 3,628
- Total
- 8,706
- vs nation
- R+43.8
- Turnout
- 69.4%
ObamaDemocratic39.8%3,385RomneyRepublican58.2%4,951JohnsonLibertarian0.7%58
R+18.4- Lead
- 1,566
- Total
- 8,502
- vs nation
- R+22.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic46.7%3,925McCainRepublican51.9%4,355OtherAll other candidates1.4%118
R+5.1- Lead
- 430
- Total
- 8,398
- vs nation
- R+12.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic41.3%3,547BushRepublican57.0%4,898OtherAll other candidates1.7%143
R+15.7- Lead
- 1,351
- Total
- 8,588
- vs nation
- R+13.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic43.5%3,294BushRepublican52.7%3,992NaderGreen2.2%166
R+9.2- Lead
- 698
- Total
- 7,578
- vs nation
- R+9.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic47.8%3,659DoleRepublican40.9%3,129PerotReform10.5%802
D+6.9- Lead
- 530
- Total
- 7,655
- vs nation
- R+1.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+43.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 16,4612024 5-year
- Population density
- 29 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 567 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $65,4282024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+25.3 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+62.1 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Grant County, SD · twin score 90.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 69.4%8,609 participants ÷ 12,399 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +20.7 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 48.7%–52.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,706 | 12,553 | 69.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 6,955 | 12,383 | 56.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 9,013 | 12,358 | 72.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 6,550 | 12,548 | 52.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 8,609 | 12,399 | 69.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Clay County, IA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
61.8%
4,691 votes · D+25.3
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 59.8%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
80.1%
4,471 votes · R+62.1
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · 78.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
4,691votes
61.8% of the vote · D+25.3
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 4,631 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
6,271votes
72.6% of the vote · R+46.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 6,137 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Michael Dukakis1988
+14.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+6.8 · U.S. R+7.7
Runner-up · Walter Mondale, 1984 · +10.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+43.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+41.7 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +43.2 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+33.9
Presidential vote · 2024R+43.1
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 9.1 points more Republican than the rolls.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 12,628 | 2,992 | 4,734 | 4,900 | 2 |
| 2010 | 12,483 | 2,942 | 4,659 | 4,875 | 7 |
| 2012 | 12,695 | 2,841 | 4,834 | 5,015 | 5 |
| 2014 | 12,182 | 2,655 | 4,780 | 4,735 | 12 |
| 2016 | 12,286 | 2,230 | 6,054 | 3,967 | 35 |
| 2018 | 11,799 | 2,133 | 5,696 | 3,914 | 56 |
| 2020 | 12,061 | 2,340 | 5,888 | 3,748 | 85 |
| 2022 | 11,876 | 2,155 | 5,934 | 3,687 | 100 |
| 2024 | 11,762 | 2,013 | 6,005 | 3,631 | 113 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−292 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −824 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $53,684 in average income, against $85,392 for residents who stayed — 37% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+43.5 on average — about the same lean as Clay County, IA (R+43.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Dickinson County, IA70R+39.9
- O'Brien County, IA26R+60.7
- Buena Vista County, IA21R+33.2
- Palo Alto County, IA21R+44.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Dickinson County, IA42
- Buena Vista County, IA36
- Palo Alto County, IA34
- O'Brien County, IA21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −36 |
| 2012 | −39 |
| 2013 | −142 |
| 2014 | +50 |
| 2015 | +2 |
| 2016 | −196 |
| 2017 | −184 |
| 2018 | −71 |
| 2019 | −133 |
| 2021 | +133 |
| 2022 | +87 |
| 2023 | +25 |
| 2024 | −28 |
| 2025 | −292 |
Clay County's rural agricultural economy and declining population track closely with broader shifts across Iowa's Small Lakes region, where Republican presidential margins have widened from single digits in the early 2000s to more than 40 points by 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 25.3 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 62.1 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 43.1 points.
A population of 16,461, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,428 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Grant County and Kingsbury County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Grant County
South Dakota
90.8twin score
elasticity12-yr trendGerman ancestry
Kingsbury County
South Dakota
90.3twin score
elasticity12-yr trend% White≠ Norwegian ancestry
Codington County
South Dakota
88.7twin score
elasticity12-yr trend% unaffiliated≠ Polish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Clay County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19041/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Clay County
Iowa at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Clay County, Iowa vote in 2024?
In 2024, Clay County, Iowa voted Republican by 43.1 points (R+43.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,541 votes cast, 2,367 went Democratic and 6,047 went Republican.
When did Clay County, Iowa last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Clay County, Iowa voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Clay County, Iowa?
Clay County, Iowa has a population of 16,461 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Clay County, Iowa?
Median household income in Clay County, Iowa is $65,428 — below the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.
What is the political history of Clay County, Iowa?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Clay County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 24 went Republican.