HarrisDemocratic23.5%2,577TrumpRepublican75.0%8,207KennedyWe The People0.7%82
R+51.4- Lead
- 5,630
- Total
- 10,946
- vs nation
- R+50.0
- Turnout
- 66.4%
Akashiccounty
Mahaska County, IA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 66.4% of 16,594 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic25.4%2,894TrumpRepublican72.8%8,297JorgensenLibertarian1.2%134
R+47.4- Lead
- 5,403
- Total
- 11,404
- vs nation
- R+51.8
- Turnout
- 67.8%
ClintonDemocratic24.4%2,619TrumpRepublican69.3%7,432JohnsonLibertarian3.0%318
R+44.9- Lead
- 4,813
- Total
- 10,723
- vs nation
- R+47.0
- Turnout
- 63.6%
ObamaDemocratic38.7%4,213RomneyRepublican59.2%6,448JohnsonLibertarian0.8%82
R+20.5- Lead
- 2,235
- Total
- 10,883
- vs nation
- R+24.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic40.8%4,464McCainRepublican57.4%6,271OtherAll other candidates1.8%197
R+16.5- Lead
- 1,807
- Total
- 10,932
- vs nation
- R+23.8
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic35.3%3,790BushRepublican63.9%6,858OtherAll other candidates0.7%80
R+28.6- Lead
- 3,068
- Total
- 10,728
- vs nation
- R+26.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic35.3%3,370BushRepublican62.6%5,971NaderGreen1.5%143
R+27.3- Lead
- 2,601
- Total
- 9,543
- vs nation
- R+27.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic41.8%3,737DoleRepublican50.0%4,473PerotReform7.3%656
R+8.2- Lead
- 736
- Total
- 8,941
- vs nation
- R+16.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+51.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 22,0212024 5-year
- Population density
- 39 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 571 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $70,9402024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+25.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+51.4 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Orange County, IN · twin score 86.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 66.4%11,017 participants ÷ 16,594 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 47.7%–51.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 10,723 | 16,873 | 63.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 8,654 | 16,714 | 51.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 11,458 | 16,900 | 67.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 8,184 | 16,658 | 49.1% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 11,017 | 16,594 | 66.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Mahaska County, IA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
62.7%
6,396 votes · D+25.6
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 52.1%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
75.0%
8,207 votes · R+51.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 72.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
6,396votes
62.7% of the vote · D+25.6
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 6,094 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
8,297votes
72.8% of the vote · R+47.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 8,207 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1908
+5.3pts D vs U.S.
Place R+4.2 · U.S. R+9.6
Runner-up · Michael Dukakis, 1988 · +4.0 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+51.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+47.4 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +50.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+35.7
Presidential vote · 2024R+51.4
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 16 points more Republican than the rolls.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 15,141 | 3,719 | 5,760 | 5,659 | 3 |
| 2010 | 15,473 | 3,550 | 6,267 | 5,649 | 7 |
| 2012 | 15,811 | 3,592 | 6,389 | 5,813 | 17 |
| 2014 | 15,403 | 3,352 | 6,318 | 5,694 | 39 |
| 2016 | 14,996 | 2,928 | 7,190 | 4,805 | 73 |
| 2018 | 14,880 | 2,689 | 7,292 | 4,792 | 107 |
| 2020 | 15,203 | 2,956 | 7,502 | 4,630 | 115 |
| 2022 | 14,825 | 2,621 | 7,600 | 4,466 | 138 |
| 2024 | 14,724 | 2,428 | 7,688 | 4,459 | 149 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−29 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,154 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $53,715 in average income, against $79,910 for residents who stayed — 33% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+28.1 on average — 23 points more Democratic-leaning than Mahaska County, IA itself (R+51.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Marion County, IA85R+37.6
- Wapello County, IA63R+31.4
- Polk County, IA43D+10.8
- Keokuk County, IA28R+51.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Marion County, IA87
- Wapello County, IA65
- Polk County, IA57
- Jasper County, IA26
- Keokuk County, IA22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +3 |
| 2012 | −117 |
| 2013 | −60 |
| 2014 | −138 |
| 2015 | −149 |
| 2016 | −201 |
| 2017 | −40 |
| 2018 | −245 |
| 2019 | +15 |
| 2021 | −162 |
| 2022 | +36 |
| 2023 | −19 |
| 2024 | −48 |
| 2025 | −29 |
Mahaska County, anchored by Oskaloosa, has swung sharply rightward over the past decade — its R+51.4 margin in 2024 reflects a broader rural Iowa realignment that has compressed Democratic performance across the state's small-town heartland.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 25.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 51.4 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 51.4 points.
A population of 22,021, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $70,940 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Orange County and Jennings County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Orange County
Indiana
86.7twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectory% White
Jennings County
Indiana
82.4twin score
12-yr trend% White2020–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Washington County
Indiana
82.1twin score
12-yr trendelasticity2024 margin≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Mahaska County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19123/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Mahaska County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Mahaska County, Iowa vote in 2024?
In 2024, Mahaska County, Iowa voted Republican by 51.4 points (R+51.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 10,946 votes cast, 2,577 went Democratic and 8,207 went Republican.
When did Mahaska County, Iowa last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Mahaska County, Iowa voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Mahaska County, Iowa?
Mahaska County, Iowa has a population of 22,021 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Mahaska County, Iowa?
Median household income in Mahaska County, Iowa is $70,940 — below the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.
What is the political history of Mahaska County, Iowa?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Mahaska County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 28 went Republican.