- Lead
- 11,357
- Total
- 70,658
- vs nation
- R+14.6
Maryland 38th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 9,545
- Total
- 68,541
- vs nation
- R+18.4
- Lead
- 13,047
- Total
- 61,324
- vs nation
- R+23.4
- Lead
- 8,145
- Total
- 61,322
- vs nation
- R+17.1
- Lead
- 8,056
- Total
- 60,538
- vs nation
- R+20.6
- Lead
- 12,340
- Total
- 55,361
- vs nation
- R+19.8
- Lead
- 3,833
- Total
- 46,048
- vs nation
- R+8.8
- Lead
- 925
- Total
- 39,343
- vs nation
- R+10.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+16.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 136,6532024 5-year
- Population density
- 143 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 957 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $77,0562024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 67.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 19.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+23.0 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+45.7 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 10, VA · twin score 83.2
presidential history
Party record book
Maryland 38th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
61.5%
5,849 votes · D+23.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 58.8%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
72.3%
17,866 votes · R+45.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 68.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
28,739votes
41.9% of the vote · R+13.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 28,721 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
40,078votes
56.7% of the vote · R+16.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 38,284 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+26.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+1.0 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +23.5 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+23.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+21.3 · U.S. D+2.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · +22.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
District 38 covers the lower Eastern Shore, where rural, agriculture-tied communities have shifted the 2024 presidential margin to R+16.1 — a notable outlier in a state that trends heavily Democratic statewide.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 23.0 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 45.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 16.1 points.
A population of 136,653, a 68% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $77,056 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 10 and State Senate District 25.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Maryland 38th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/24038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.