HarrisDemocratic18.3%5,454TrumpRepublican79.9%23,869OtherAll other candidates1.8%551
R+61.6- Lead
- 18,415
- Total
- 29,874
- vs nation
- R+60.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate senate district
Arkansas 21st State Senate District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic18.9%5,782TrumpRepublican78.4%24,022OtherAll other candidates2.8%843
R+59.5- Lead
- 18,240
- Total
- 30,647
- vs nation
- R+64.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic22.8%6,332TrumpRepublican74.4%20,693OtherAll other candidates2.8%780
R+51.6- Lead
- 14,361
- Total
- 27,805
- vs nation
- R+53.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic31.7%8,644RomneyRepublican64.1%17,468OtherAll other candidates4.2%1,145
R+32.4- Lead
- 8,824
- Total
- 27,257
- vs nation
- R+36.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic36.8%10,331McCainRepublican59.3%16,631OtherAll other candidates3.9%1,101
R+22.4- Lead
- 6,300
- Total
- 28,063
- vs nation
- R+29.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic50.6%15,066BushRepublican48.2%14,374OtherAll other candidates1.2%364
D+2.3- Lead
- 692
- Total
- 29,804
- vs nation
- D+4.8
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic53.7%14,516BushRepublican43.7%11,833OtherAll other candidates2.6%707
D+9.9- Lead
- 2,683
- Total
- 27,056
- vs nation
- D+9.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic59.9%15,534DoleRepublican30.2%7,829OtherAll other candidates9.8%2,550
D+29.7- Lead
- 7,705
- Total
- 25,913
- vs nation
- D+21.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+61.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 86,2202024 5-year
- Population density
- 43 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 2,001 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $54,7912024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+90.0 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.6 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 9, KY · twin score 96.6
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas 21st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
95.0%
2,384 votes · D+90.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Winfield S. Hancock, 1880 · 88.9%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
79.9%
23,869 votes · R+61.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 78.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Jimmy Carter1976
20,306votes
74.7% of the vote · D+49.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 18,371 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
24,022votes
78.4% of the vote · R+59.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 23,869 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+72.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+66.0 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · +60.6 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+64.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+59.5 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +60.2 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RBlake JohnsonState Senate · 21
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 1 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 16.1%4,509 | 83.9%23,507 | 28,016 |
District 21 recorded an R+61.6 presidential margin in 2024, placing it among the state's most uniform districts. Its rural character and small population base make it one of the least contested seats in the Arkansas Senate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 90.0 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 61.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.6 points.
A population of 86,220, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,791 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 9 and State Senate District 16.
Political twins — state-senate districts
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State Senate District 9
Kentucky
96.6twin score
2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend
State Senate District 16
Tennessee
96.0twin score
2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend
State Senate District 28
Arkansas
95.7twin score
2012–2024 trajectory≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arkansas 21st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/05021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Arkansas at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Arkansas 21st State Senate District
counties it covers4
Frequently asked questions
How did Arkansas 21st State Senate District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arkansas 21st State Senate District voted Republican by 61.6 points (R+61.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 29,874 votes cast, 5,454 went Democratic and 23,869 went Republican.
When did Arkansas 21st State Senate District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arkansas 21st State Senate District voted Democratic was 2004.
How many people live in Arkansas 21st State Senate District?
Arkansas 21st State Senate District has a population of 86,220 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arkansas 21st State Senate District?
Median household income in Arkansas 21st State Senate District is $54,791 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Arkansas 21st State Senate District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Arkansas 21st State Senate District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 29 went Democratic and 8 went Republican.