Assembly District 15 State House District (NY) — Elections 1876–2024

New York 15th State House District, New York: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+4%. Republican peak: R+57 in 1920.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+4MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: BellwetherAkashic typology
Population: 268,3842024 5-year
Median household income: $146,2022024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 56.8%2024 5-year
Black: 11.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 18.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+21 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+57 in 1920MIT Election Lab

2024 results by constituent county

1 counties · 0 D · 1 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−4.1%	65,363	71,098	138,223
2020	D	+9.5%	76,580	63,102	141,181
2016	D	+6.2%	64,152	56,401	124,984
2012	D	+7.6%	58,462	50,082	109,732
2008	D	+8.4%	66,089	55,774	122,762
2004	D	+5.6%	62,397	55,693	119,426
2000	D	+19.5%	66,097	43,854	114,037
1996	D	+19.6%	58,634	38,014	105,196
1992	D	+5.9%	54,580	47,682	117,684
1988	R	−14.7%	48,310	65,171	114,419
1984	R	−23.9%	46,488	75,714	122,462
1980	R	−21.1%	40,096	64,425	115,115
1976	R	−4.1%	58,496	63,577	122,789
1972	R	−26.8%	48,831	84,734	133,850
1968	R	−8.0%	53,808	63,696	124,226
1964	D	+21.2%	73,893	48,070	122,086
1960	R	−10.4%	50,854	62,626	113,627
1956	R	−38.2%	32,186	71,917	104,103
1952	R	−40.1%	25,160	59,081	84,612
1948	R	−42.9%	13,615	35,592	51,228
1944	R	−34.0%	15,164	30,847	46,122
1940	R	−32.4%	14,132	27,749	41,968
1936	R	−12.0%	14,337	18,342	33,370
1932	R	−11.7%	11,927	15,170	27,831
1928	R	−27.3%	7,741	13,716	21,852
1924	R	−48.4%	2,766	8,851	12,560
1920	R	−56.6%	1,660	6,393	8,369
1916	R	−24.3%	1,628	2,687	4,356
1912	D	+13.3%	1,366	890	3,582
1908	R	−31.6%	943	1,890	2,998
1904	R	−21.5%	1,020	1,588	2,646
1900	R	−23.3%	835	1,351	2,213
1896	—	No data	—	—	—
1892	—	No data	—	—	—
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

Italian

16.4%

Irish

11.6%

German

6.9%

American

3.7%

Polish

3.5%

English

2.3%

French

0.6%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 42.0 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.9%

85+

1.7%

2.4%

75–84

3.0%

5.1%

65–74

5.6%

7.0%

55–64

7.3%

6.5%

45–54

6.6%

6.2%

35–44

6.3%

5.9%

25–34

5.8%

4.2%

18–24

4.1%

8.4%

5–17

7.9%

2.7%

2.6%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$146,202

Assembly District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.

Assembly District 15$146,202

New York$85,974

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

5.4%

Child poverty is below the national average.

Children under 185.7%

Working age (18–64)5.0%

Seniors (65+)8.1%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

69.3%

speak English only

Spanish13.7%

Other Indo-European9.9%

Asian & Pacific Islander5.6%

Other languages1.5%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

46.5%

Non-Christian

9.2%

Other Christian

3.4%

Mainline Protestant

2.4%

Methodist

1.1%

Baptist

0.9%

Pentecostal & Holiness

0.9%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 35.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Assembly District 15 covers part of Staten Island, where a working-class and suburban mix has produced some of New York City's most Republican-leaning results — the 2024 presidential margin of R+16.7 reflects a durable rightward tilt unusual for the five boroughs.

The Democratic margin in New York 15th State House District has rarely exceeded twenty-one points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifty-seven points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by four points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 57% non-Hispanic-white share, a 5% poverty rate, and a median household income of $146,202 — all within the broad national range.

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Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Assembly District 15, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Assembly District 15, New York vote in 2024?

In 2024, Assembly District 15, New York voted Republican by 4.1 points (R+4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 138,223 votes cast, 65,363 went Democratic and 71,098 went Republican.

What is Assembly District 15, New York's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Assembly District 15, New York as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 10 times, Republican 22 times, and other 0 times.

When did Assembly District 15, New York last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Assembly District 15, New York voted Democratic was 2020.

How many people live in Assembly District 15, New York?

Assembly District 15, New York has a population of 268,384 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Assembly District 15, New York?

Median household income in Assembly District 15, New York is $146,202 — above the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.

What is the political history of Assembly District 15, New York?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Assembly District 15, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 22 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

New York 15th State House District votes the way the country votes.

Key facts

Demographics

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions