- Lead
- 8,010
- Total
- 70,945
- vs nation
- R+9.8
New York 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,217
- Total
- 74,665
- vs nation
- R+1.5
- Lead
- 2,145
- Total
- 65,776
- vs nation
- R+5.4
- Lead
- 1,168
- Total
- 57,463
- vs nation
- R+5.9
- Lead
- 933
- Total
- 64,241
- vs nation
- R+8.7
- Lead
- 2,594
- Total
- 62,692
- vs nation
- R+1.7
- Lead
- 6,068
- Total
- 59,127
- vs nation
- D+9.7
- Lead
- 5,865
- Total
- 54,652
- vs nation
- D+2.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+11.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 132,2852024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,197 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 60.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $158,9352024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 65.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+11.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.3 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 16, NY · twin score 97.1
presidential history
Party record book
New York 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1900–2020 · 31 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
55.8%
35,256 votes · D+11.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · 53.2%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
80.4%
3,734 votes · R+64.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · 75.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
37,940votes
50.8% of the vote · D+3.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 35,256 votes
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
49,190votes
67.8% of the vote · R+35.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 43,942 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
+9.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+10.3 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · +2.2 pts
Republican
Thomas E. Dewey1948
+56.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+52.2 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · +54.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 51.2%32,159 | 48.8%30,598 | 62,757 |
New York 15th State House District sits in the Mid-Atlantic. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 11.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 64.3 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 14.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.3 points.
A population of 132,285, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $158,935 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 16 and Assembly District 19.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.