- Lead
- 929
- Total
- 20,584
- vs nation
- R+3.0
Missouri 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,175
- Total
- 19,332
- vs nation
- R+10.5
- Lead
- 1,952
- Total
- 17,576
- vs nation
- R+13.2
- Lead
- 1,391
- Total
- 16,636
- vs nation
- R+12.2
- Lead
- 171
- Total
- 17,243
- vs nation
- R+8.3
- Lead
- 1,075
- Total
- 15,103
- vs nation
- R+4.7
- Lead
- 45
- Total
- 12,616
- vs nation
- R+0.9
- Lead
- 534
- Total
- 11,002
- vs nation
- R+3.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+4.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 37,7732024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,145 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 33 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $99,7922024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 82.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+67.0 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+39.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 16, MO · twin score 88.4
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
82.1%
446 votes · D+67.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 78.1%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
69.5%
5,174 votes · R+39.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 62.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
9,678votes
47.0% of the vote · R+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 8,868 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
10,607votes
51.5% of the vote · R+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 10,043 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
+64.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+38.3 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +64.4 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+15.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+39.1 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +13.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | R | 39.7%4,858 | 60.3%7,393 | 12,251 |
| 2018 | R | 40.0%3,781 | 60.0%5,679 | 9,460 |
Missouri 38th State House District sits in the Border South. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 67.0 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 39.1 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.6 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 4.5 points.
A population of 37,773, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $99,792 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 16 and State House District 23.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.