- Lead
- 18
- Total
- 20,100
- vs nation
- D+1.6
Missouri 16th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 49
- Total
- 16,479
- vs nation
- R+4.8
- Lead
- 1,411
- Total
- 15,403
- vs nation
- R+11.3
- Lead
- 932
- Total
- 14,706
- vs nation
- R+10.2
- Lead
- 219
- Total
- 15,286
- vs nation
- R+5.8
- Lead
- 636
- Total
- 13,392
- vs nation
- R+2.3
- Lead
- 181
- Total
- 11,135
- vs nation
- D+1.1
- Lead
- 656
- Total
- 9,596
- vs nation
- R+1.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+0.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 37,0662024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,782 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 20.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $94,9592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 8.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+68.5 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+37.0 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 38, MO · twin score 88.4
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 16th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
83.0%
416 votes · D+68.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 80.5%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
68.5%
4,496 votes · R+37.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 61.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
9,892votes
49.2% of the vote · D+0.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 8,053 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
9,874votes
49.1% of the vote · D+0.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 8,102 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+68.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+62.7 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1900 · +66.9 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+13.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+37.0 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +11.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | R | 39.7%4,767 | 60.3%7,254 | 12,021 |
| 2018 | R | 40.0%3,711 | 60.0%5,573 | 9,284 |
Missouri House District 16 recorded a 0.1-point Democratic presidential margin in 2024, making it among the most evenly divided state legislative districts in a state that otherwise leans heavily in one direction.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 68.5 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 37.0 points in 1972. The 2024 margin was 0.1 points.
A population of 37,066, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $94,959 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 38 and State House District 12.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 16th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.