Missouri 15th State House District, Missouri: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+6%. Democratic peak: D+62 in 1896.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+6MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 7,4052024 5-year
- Median household income
- $88,4682024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+62 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+39 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for State House District 15, MOOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 1,731 | 1,942 | 3,752 | ||
| R | 1,704 | 1,853 | 3,631 | ||
| R | 1,300 | 1,649 | 3,189 | ||
| R | 1,357 | 1,612 | 3,042 | ||
| R | 1,542 | 1,564 | 3,144 | ||
| R | 1,282 | 1,469 | 2,767 | ||
| O | 1,121 | 1,121 | 2,300 | ||
| D | 935 | 830 | 1,984 | ||
| D | 877 | 683 | 2,174 | ||
| R | 850 | 869 | 1,729 | ||
| R | 648 | 1,048 | 1,696 | ||
| R | 696 | 818 | 1,616 | ||
| D | 763 | 716 | 1,501 | ||
| R | 417 | 947 | 1,364 | ||
| R | 503 | 564 | 1,267 | ||
| D | 688 | 402 | 1,090 | ||
| R | 497 | 544 | 1,041 | ||
| D | 390 | 385 | 776 | ||
| R | 359 | 374 | 734 | ||
| D | 340 | 184 | 525 | ||
| D | 249 | 193 | 443 | ||
| D | 277 | 177 | 455 | ||
| D | 274 | 129 | 404 | ||
| D | 270 | 89 | 362 | ||
| O | 160 | 160 | 321 | ||
| D | 174 | 86 | 271 | ||
| D | 180 | 80 | 262 | ||
| D | 112 | 37 | 151 | ||
| D | 98 | 17 | 136 | ||
| D | 101 | 33 | 136 | ||
| D | 81 | 31 | 116 | ||
| D | 103 | 26 | 132 | ||
| D | 117 | 27 | 145 | ||
| D | 89 | 21 | 127 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
20.6%
English
14.9%
Irish
12.7%
American
5.4%
Italian
4.8%
Scottish
2.3%
French
1.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$88,468
State House District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State House District 15$88,468
Missouri$70,702
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
8.5%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1810.3%
Working age (18–64)7.6%
Seniors (65+)11.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
92.1%
speak English only
Spanish3.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.6%
Other Indo-European1.4%
Other languages1.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 60.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+59.1, this rural Missouri district ranks among the state's most one-sided, reflecting the deep Republican alignment that has reshaped small-town and agricultural communities across the Ozarks region.
The Democratic margin in Missouri 15th State House District has rarely exceeded sixty-two points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty-nine points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by six points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 79% non-Hispanic-white share, a 9% poverty rate, and a median household income of $88,468 — all within the broad national range.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State House District 15, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did State House District 15, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, State House District 15, Missouri voted Republican by 5.6 points (R+6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,752 votes cast, 1,731 went Democratic and 1,942 went Republican.
What is State House District 15, Missouri's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State House District 15, Missouri as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 19 times, Republican 13 times, and other 2 times.
When did State House District 15, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State House District 15, Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in State House District 15, Missouri?
State House District 15, Missouri has a population of 7,405 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State House District 15, Missouri?
Median household income in State House District 15, Missouri is $88,468 — above the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of State House District 15, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in State House District 15, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 13 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.