HarrisDemocratic32.0%7,342TrumpRepublican65.7%15,052OtherAll other candidates2.3%518
R+33.7- Lead
- 7,710
- Total
- 22,912
- vs nation
- R+32.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Minnesota State House District 15A
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic34.9%8,024TrumpRepublican63.1%14,511OtherAll other candidates2.0%460
R+28.2- Lead
- 6,487
- Total
- 22,995
- vs nation
- R+32.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic31.5%6,867TrumpRepublican60.3%13,154OtherAll other candidates8.3%1,809
R+28.8- Lead
- 6,287
- Total
- 21,830
- vs nation
- R+30.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic45.9%10,238RomneyRepublican51.6%11,511OtherAll other candidates2.5%569
R+5.7- Lead
- 1,273
- Total
- 22,318
- vs nation
- R+9.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic49.7%11,435McCainRepublican47.7%10,978OtherAll other candidates2.6%603
D+2.0- Lead
- 457
- Total
- 23,016
- vs nation
- R+5.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic46.1%10,848BushRepublican52.5%12,353OtherAll other candidates1.4%333
R+6.4- Lead
- 1,505
- Total
- 23,534
- vs nation
- R+3.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic44.7%9,824BushRepublican49.1%10,800OtherAll other candidates6.2%1,357
R+4.4- Lead
- 976
- Total
- 21,981
- vs nation
- R+5.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic47.8%10,565DoleRepublican38.5%8,511OtherAll other candidates13.7%3,034
D+9.3- Lead
- 2,054
- Total
- 22,110
- vs nation
- D+0.8
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+33.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,4742024 5-year
- Population density
- 19 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 2,241 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $74,1462024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+39.0 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+80.9 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 25, ND · twin score 96.7
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota State House District 15A · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
68.6%
13,978 votes · D+39.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 65.4%
Republican
Rutherford B. Hayes1876
89.5%
1,440 votes · R+80.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James A. Garfield, 1880 · 89.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
15,787votes
65.4% of the vote · D+31.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 15,613 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
15,052votes
65.7% of the vote · R+33.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 14,526 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Harry S. Truman1948
+22.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+26.9 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George McGovern, 1972 · +22.4 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+51.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+70.9 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · +33.1 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RChris SwedzinskiState House · 15A
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 30.3%6,756 | 69.7%15,556 | 22,312 |
| 2020 | R | 43.2%8,894 | 56.8%11,692 | 20,586 |
Anchored in rural southwestern Minnesota, District 15A delivered a 33-point presidential margin in 2024, reflecting the heavily Republican shift that has reshaped Greater Minnesota's small-town and agricultural communities over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.0 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 80.9 points in 1876. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 33.7 points.
A population of 42,474, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,146 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 25 and State House District 16A.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District 25
North Dakota
96.7twin score
elasticity12-yr trend% unaffiliated≠ population scale
State House District 16A
Minnesota
96.4twin score
12-yr trendelasticity2024 margin
State House District 1
South Dakota
96.2twin score
12-yr trendelasticity% unaffiliated
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Minnesota State House District 15A. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/2715A/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Minnesota at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Minnesota State House District 15A
counties it covers3
Frequently asked questions
How did Minnesota State House District 15A vote in 2024?
In 2024, Minnesota State House District 15A voted Republican by 33.7 points (R+33.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 22,912 votes cast, 7,342 went Democratic and 15,052 went Republican.
When did Minnesota State House District 15A last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Minnesota State House District 15A voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Minnesota State House District 15A?
Minnesota State House District 15A has a population of 42,474 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Minnesota State House District 15A?
Median household income in Minnesota State House District 15A is $74,146 — below the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Minnesota State House District 15A?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Minnesota State House District 15A from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 13 went Democratic and 22 went Republican.