- Lead
- 78
- Total
- 16,715
- vs nation
- D+1.9
Massachusetts 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,499
- Total
- 17,507
- vs nation
- D+9.8
- Lead
- 2,829
- Total
- 16,369
- vs nation
- D+15.2
- Lead
- 4,428
- Total
- 15,618
- vs nation
- D+24.5
- Lead
- 4,918
- Total
- 15,826
- vs nation
- D+23.8
- Lead
- 5,459
- Total
- 15,239
- vs nation
- D+38.3
- Lead
- 5,816
- Total
- 13,868
- vs nation
- D+41.4
- Lead
- 6,142
- Total
- 12,857
- vs nation
- D+39.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+0.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 44,4242024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,454 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 18.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $63,2222024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+62.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.9 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 7th Bristol District, MA · twin score 94.2
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
81.3%
10,236 votes · D+62.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 70.5%
Republican
William McKinley1896
74.3%
1,267 votes · R+50.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 71.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
10,304votes
67.6% of the vote · D+35.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 10,236 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
8,117votes
48.6% of the vote · D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 7,347 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+42.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+41.7 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · +41.4 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+44.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+50.9 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · +19.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 81.0%13,218 | 19.0%3,109 | 16,327 |
| 2020 | D | 55.8%11,112 | 44.2%8,800 | 19,912 |
Massachusetts 15th State House District sits in New England. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 62.8 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 50.9 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 13.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.5 points.
A population of 44,424, a 75% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $63,222 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 7th Bristol District and 13th Bristol District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.