HarrisDemocratic24.6%8,337TrumpRepublican72.7%24,671OliverLibertarian1.7%583
R+48.2- Lead
- 16,334
- Total
- 33,921
- vs nation
- R+46.7
- Turnout
- 56.7%
Akashiccounty
Natrona County, WY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 56.7% of 60,361 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic24.2%8,530TrumpRepublican71.8%25,271JorgensenLibertarian2.5%895
R+47.6- Lead
- 16,741
- Total
- 35,202
- vs nation
- R+52.0
- Turnout
- 59.0%
ClintonDemocratic19.7%6,577TrumpRepublican70.6%23,552JohnsonLibertarian5.4%1,791
R+50.9- Lead
- 16,975
- Total
- 33,348
- vs nation
- R+53.0
- Turnout
- 55.2%
ObamaDemocratic27.7%8,961RomneyRepublican68.4%22,132OtherAll other candidates4.0%1,280
R+40.7- Lead
- 13,171
- Total
- 32,373
- vs nation
- R+44.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic31.5%10,475McCainRepublican65.8%21,906OtherAll other candidates2.7%886
R+34.4- Lead
- 11,431
- Total
- 33,267
- vs nation
- R+41.6
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic30.8%9,863BushRepublican67.1%21,512OtherAll other candidates2.2%693
R+36.3- Lead
- 11,649
- Total
- 32,068
- vs nation
- R+33.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic30.5%8,646BushRepublican65.0%18,439NaderGreen2.1%590
R+34.5- Lead
- 9,793
- Total
- 28,388
- vs nation
- R+35.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic39.8%11,240DoleRepublican46.7%13,182PerotReform12.5%3,524
R+6.9- Lead
- 1,942
- Total
- 28,215
- vs nation
- R+15.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+48.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 79,9772024 5-year
- Population density
- 15 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 5,341 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $72,1562024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+33.7 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.9 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lumpkin County, GA · twin score 84.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 56.7%34,206 participants ÷ 60,361 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +20.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +2.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 36.0%–39.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 33,360 | 60,414 | 55.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 24,662 | 60,065 | 41.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 35,391 | 59,995 | 59.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 22,955 | 59,847 | 38.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 34,206 | 60,361 | 56.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Natrona County, WY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
65.7%
7,819 votes · D+33.7
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1916 · 59.2%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
72.7%
24,671 votes · R+48.2
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 71.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1996
11,240votes
39.8% of the vote · R+6.9
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 11,167 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
25,271votes
71.8% of the vote · R+47.6
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 24,671 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1916
+16.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+20.0 · U.S. D+3.1
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · +9.4 pts
Republican
Benjamin Harrison1892
+57.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+55.9 · U.S. D+1.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +53.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 23.3%7,090 | 76.7%23,396 | 30,486 |
| 2020 | R | 23.5%7,454 | 76.5%24,214 | 31,668 |
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+69.8
Presidential vote · 2024R+48.2
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 22 points more Democratic than the rolls.
34,045 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+335 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +941 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $63,759 in average income, against $93,156 for residents who stayed — 32% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+33.0 on average — 15 points more Democratic-leaning than Natrona County, WY itself (R+48.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Converse County, WY115R+72.9
- Fremont County, WY78R+36.9
- Laramie County, WY56R+32.1
- Campbell County, WY55R+76.3
- Sweetwater County, WY46R+52.8
- Albany County, WY41R+3.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Converse County, WY91
- Laramie County, WY75
- Albany County, WY58
- Campbell County, WY49
- Sheridan County, WY46
- Fremont County, WY44
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +586 |
| 2012 | +1,675 |
| 2013 | +2,018 |
| 2014 | −189 |
| 2015 | +225 |
| 2016 | −1,705 |
| 2017 | −1,786 |
| 2018 | −802 |
| 2019 | +361 |
| 2021 | −578 |
| 2022 | +68 |
| 2023 | +361 |
| 2024 | +372 |
| 2025 | +335 |
Natrona County, seat of Casper and center of Wyoming's energy industry, has delivered Republican presidential margins above 40 points in every cycle this decade, reflecting a working-age, resource-sector workforce with limited urban counterweight.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.7 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 55.9 points in 1892. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.2 points.
A population of 79,977, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,156 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lumpkin County and Sheridan County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Lumpkin County
Georgia
84.3twin score
2000–2016 trajectory≠ German ancestry
Sheridan County
Wyoming
83.8twin score
2000–2016 trajectory≠ French ancestry
Rio Blanco County
Colorado
83.7twin score
elasticity2016 marginmedian age≠ 2004 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Natrona County, Wyoming. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/56025/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Natrona County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Natrona County, Wyoming vote in 2024?
In 2024, Natrona County, Wyoming voted Republican by 48.2 points (R+48.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 33,921 votes cast, 8,337 went Democratic and 24,671 went Republican.
When did Natrona County, Wyoming last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Natrona County, Wyoming voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Natrona County, Wyoming?
Natrona County, Wyoming has a population of 79,977 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Natrona County, Wyoming?
Median household income in Natrona County, Wyoming is $72,156 — below the national median of $80,734. The Wyoming state median is $76,176.
What is the political history of Natrona County, Wyoming?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Natrona County, Wyoming from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.