HarrisDemocratic24.5%4,136TrumpRepublican73.8%12,483OtherAll other candidates1.7%294
R+49.4- Lead
- 8,347
- Total
- 16,913
- vs nation
- R+47.9
- Turnout
- 52.8%
Akashiccounty
Kay County, OK
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 52.8% of 32,114 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic23.4%4,040TrumpRepublican74.4%12,834JorgensenLibertarian1.5%265
R+51.0- Lead
- 8,794
- Total
- 17,249
- vs nation
- R+55.4
- Turnout
- 53.2%
ClintonDemocratic22.2%3,738TrumpRepublican72.4%12,172JohnsonLibertarian5.3%893
R+50.2- Lead
- 8,434
- Total
- 16,803
- vs nation
- R+52.3
- Turnout
- 50.5%
ObamaDemocratic28.7%4,627RomneyRepublican71.3%11,499OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+42.6- Lead
- 6,872
- Total
- 16,126
- vs nation
- R+46.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic29.2%5,463McCainRepublican70.8%13,230OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+41.6- Lead
- 7,767
- Total
- 18,693
- vs nation
- R+48.8
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic29.7%5,957BushRepublican70.3%14,121OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+40.7- Lead
- 8,164
- Total
- 20,078
- vs nation
- R+38.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic33.7%6,122BushRepublican64.8%11,768OtherAll other candidates1.5%272
R+31.1- Lead
- 5,646
- Total
- 18,162
- vs nation
- R+31.6
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic35.3%6,882DoleRepublican49.9%9,741PerotReform14.3%2,785
R+14.7- Lead
- 2,859
- Total
- 19,514
- vs nation
- R+23.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+49.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 43,6252024 5-year
- Median household income
- $58,4232024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 71.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+37.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+59.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Carter County, OK · twin score 92.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 52.8%16,969 participants ÷ 32,114 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 39.8%–40.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 16,886 | 33,419 | 50.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 13,065 | 32,960 | 39.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 17,271 | 32,457 | 53.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 12,980 | 32,328 | 40.2% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 16,969 | 32,114 | 52.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
63 precincts · 16,913 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -360527360527 | 358 | 900 | 26 | 1,284 | 27.9% | 70.1% | R+42.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -360534360534 | 272 | 832 | 23 | 1,127 | 24.1% | 73.8% | R+49.7 |
| Precinct -360206360206 | 176 | 913 | 19 | 1,108 | 15.9% | 82.4% | R+66.5 |
| Precinct -360413360413 | 236 | 838 | 17 | 1,091 | 21.6% | 76.8% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct -360535360535 | 248 | 752 | 18 | 1,018 | 24.4% | 73.9% | R+49.5 |
| Precinct -360503360503 | 342 | 626 | 15 | 983 | 34.8% | 63.7% | R+28.9 |
| Precinct -360530360530 | 298 | 659 | 13 | 970 | 30.7% | 67.9% | R+37.2 |
| Precinct -360516360516 | 317 | 586 | 17 | 920 | 34.5% | 63.7% | R+29.2 |
| Precinct -360533360533 | 237 | 631 | 16 | 884 | 26.8% | 71.4% | R+44.6 |
| Precinct -360532360532 | 220 | 585 | 16 | 821 | 26.8% | 71.3% | R+44.5 |
| Precinct -360001360001 | 138 | 656 | 15 | 809 | 17.1% | 81.1% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -360101360101 | 189 | 512 | 8 | 709 | 26.7% | 72.2% | R+45.6 |
| Precinct -360202360202 | 145 | 522 | 24 | 691 | 21.0% | 75.5% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct -360103360103 | 118 | 543 | 9 | 670 | 17.6% | 81.0% | R+63.4 |
| Precinct -360205360205 | 128 | 455 | 10 | 593 | 21.6% | 76.7% | R+55.1 |
| Precinct -360419360419 | 205 | 376 | 7 | 588 | 34.9% | 63.9% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct -360517360517 | 192 | 332 | 13 | 537 | 35.8% | 61.8% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -360403360403 | 44 | 349 | 2 | 395 | 11.1% | 88.4% | R+77.2 |
| Precinct -360412360412 | 71 | 231 | 5 | 307 | 23.1% | 75.2% | R+52.1 |
| Precinct -360420360420 | 40 | 211 | 4 | 255 | 15.7% | 82.7% | R+67.1 |
| Precinct -360406360406 | 39 | 183 | 3 | 225 | 17.3% | 81.3% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -360411360411 | 24 | 157 | 4 | 185 | 13.0% | 84.9% | R+71.9 |
| Precinct -360405360405 | 22 | 151 | 1 | 174 | 12.6% | 86.8% | R+74.1 |
| Precinct -360404360404 | 23 | 127 | 3 | 153 | 15.0% | 83.0% | R+68.0 |
| Precinct -360400360400 | 17 | 127 | 2 | 146 | 11.6% | 87.0% | R+75.3 |
| Precinct -360409360409 | 5 | 71 | 1 | 77 | 6.5% | 92.2% | R+85.7 |
| Precinct -360401360401 | 17 | 53 | 2 | 72 | 23.6% | 73.6% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -360421360421 | 8 | 54 | 0 | 62 | 12.9% | 87.1% | R+74.2 |
| Precinct -360407360407 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 48 | 6.3% | 91.7% | R+85.4 |
| Precinct -360531360531 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 36.4% | 63.6% | R+27.3 |
| Voting District 140_400711 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 10140_40071101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 10340_40071103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 240_400712 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 20240_40071202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 20540_40071205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 20640_40071206 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 40040_40071400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 40140_40071401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 40340_40071403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 40440_40071404 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 40540_40071405 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 40640_40071406 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 40840_40071408 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 40940_40071409 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 41140_40071411 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 41240_40071412 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 41340_40071413 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 41540_40071415 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 41740_40071417 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 41940_40071419 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 42040_40071420 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 50340_40071503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 50740_40071507 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 51640_40071516 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 51740_40071517 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 52340_40071523 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 52740_40071527 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 53040_40071530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 53240_40071532 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 53340_40071533 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 53440_40071534 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 53540_40071535 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1908–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1908 | −4.5% |
| 1912 | −2.4% |
| 1916 | −2.7% |
| 1920 | −13.2% |
| 1924 | −9.3% |
| 1928 | −53.0% |
| 1932 | +37.2% |
| 1936 | +27.7% |
| 1940 | +3.5% |
| 1944 | −4.6% |
| 1948 | +6.0% |
| 1952 | −32.5% |
| 1956 | −29.5% |
| 1960 | −29.5% |
| 1964 | −3.2% |
| 1968 | −31.1% |
| 1972 | −59.1% |
| 1976 | −13.9% |
| 1980 | −38.3% |
| 1984 | −46.6% |
| 1988 | −23.8% |
| 1992 | −10.8% |
| 1996 | −14.7% |
| 2000 | −31.1% |
| 2004 | −40.7% |
| 2008 | −41.6% |
| 2012 | −42.6% |
| 2016 | −50.2% |
| 2020 | −51.0% |
| 2024 | −49.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 38 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | R | 22.1%3,788 | 77.9%13,335 | 17,123 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+40.5
Presidential vote · 2024R+49.4
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 8.8 points more Democratic.
26,133 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−115 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,891 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $41,980 in average income, against $69,053 for residents who stayed — 39% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+32.8 on average — 17 points more Democratic-leaning than Kay County, OK itself (R+49.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Osage County, OK90R+41.4
- Oklahoma County, OK60R+1.7
- Cowley County, KS56R+40.3
- Payne County, OK55R+25.3
- Sedgwick County, KS35R+13.8
- Garfield County, OK31R+53.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Oklahoma County, OK85
- Payne County, OK71
- Osage County, OK66
- Cowley County, KS44
- Sedgwick County, KS42
- Noble County, OK38
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −607 |
| 2012 | −247 |
| 2013 | −179 |
| 2014 | −142 |
| 2015 | −217 |
| 2016 | −387 |
| 2017 | −518 |
| 2018 | −405 |
| 2019 | −363 |
| 2021 | +323 |
| 2022 | +173 |
| 2023 | −28 |
| 2024 | −179 |
| 2025 | −115 |
Kay County, anchored by Ponca City and its oil-industry roots, has delivered Republican presidential margins above 40 points in recent cycles, reflecting a rural, energy-sector workforce that tilts heavily toward the GOP.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 37.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 59.1 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.6 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 49.4 points.
A population of 43,625, a 71% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,423 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carter County and Pottawatomie County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Carter County
Oklahoma
92.6twin score
2008–2012 trajectoryelasticity% unaffiliated
Pottawatomie County
Oklahoma
92.6twin score
elasticity2008–2012 trajectory% Evangelical
Beckham County
Oklahoma
92.3twin score
elasticity2004–2008 trajectory% unaffiliated
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Kay County, Oklahoma. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/40071/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Kay County
Oklahoma at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Kay County, Oklahoma vote in 2024?
In 2024, Kay County, Oklahoma voted Republican by 49.4 points (R+49.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 16,913 votes cast, 4,136 went Democratic and 12,483 went Republican.
When did Kay County, Oklahoma last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Kay County, Oklahoma voted Democratic was 1948.
How many people live in Kay County, Oklahoma?
Kay County, Oklahoma has a population of 43,625 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Kay County, Oklahoma?
Median household income in Kay County, Oklahoma is $58,423 — below the national median of $80,734. The Oklahoma state median is $65,039.
What is the political history of Kay County, Oklahoma?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Kay County, Oklahoma from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 26 went Republican.