HarrisDemocratic50.1%1,704TrumpRepublican46.4%1,577KennedyIndependent1.8%60
D+3.7- Lead
- 127
- Total
- 3,401
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Turnout
- 65.9%
Akashiccounty
Saguache County, CO
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1880–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 65.9% of 5,233 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic55.6%1,884TrumpRepublican41.7%1,413JorgensenLibertarian1.2%39
D+13.9- Lead
- 471
- Total
- 3,389
- vs nation
- D+9.4
- Turnout
- 68.7%
ClintonDemocratic50.0%1,417TrumpRepublican40.5%1,147SteinGreen4.6%129
D+9.5- Lead
- 270
- Total
- 2,835
- vs nation
- D+7.4
- Turnout
- 69.5%
ObamaDemocratic63.6%1,865RomneyRepublican32.9%964OtherAll other candidates3.5%103
D+30.7- Lead
- 901
- Total
- 2,932
- vs nation
- D+26.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic63.0%1,730McCainRepublican34.7%953OtherAll other candidates2.3%64
D+28.3- Lead
- 777
- Total
- 2,747
- vs nation
- D+21.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic56.9%1,594BushRepublican41.5%1,163OtherAll other candidates1.6%46
D+15.4- Lead
- 431
- Total
- 2,803
- vs nation
- D+17.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic45.3%1,145BushRepublican42.6%1,078NaderGreen10.3%261
D+2.6- Lead
- 67
- Total
- 2,529
- vs nation
- D+2.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic49.6%969DoleRepublican36.5%712PerotReform8.2%160
D+13.2- Lead
- 257
- Total
- 1,952
- vs nation
- D+4.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+3.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 6,5802024 5-year
- Population density
- 2.1 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 3,169 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $50,0822024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 54.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 36.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+73.3 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+36.5 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Costilla County, CO · twin score 89.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.9%3,446 participants ÷ 5,233 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +11.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -8.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 54.3%–55.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 3,006 | 4,326 | 69.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,746 | 4,628 | 59.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,460 | 5,035 | 68.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,895 | 5,067 | 57.1% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,446 | 5,233 | 65.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Saguache County, CO · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1880) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
86.5%
1,155 votes · D+73.3
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 63.7%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
65.1%
1,344 votes · R+30.5
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 63.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
1,884votes
55.6% of the vote · D+13.9
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 1,865 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,577votes
46.4% of the vote · D+3.7
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · 1,491 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+79.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+73.3 · U.S. R+6.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +26.9 pts
Republican
Benjamin Harrison1892
+38.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+36.5 · U.S. D+1.7 · a third-party candidate carried the Place
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · +32.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+11.4
Presidential vote · 2024D+3.7
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 7.7 points more Republican than the rolls.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4,478 | 2,002 | 993 | 1,376 | 107 |
| 2018 | 4,480 | 1,813 | 947 | 1,619 | 101 |
| 2020 | 4,759 | 1,781 | 989 | 1,880 | 109 |
| 2022 | 5,097 | 1,684 | 976 | 2,320 | 117 |
| 2024 | 5,315 | 1,601 | 994 | 2,567 | 153 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+54 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +759 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $49,678 in average income, against $50,782 for residents who stayed — 2% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+23.2 on average — 27 points more Republican-leaning than Saguache County, CO itself (D+3.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Rio Grande County, CO43R+23.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Rio Grande County, CO36
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −2 |
| 2012 | +99 |
| 2013 | −139 |
| 2014 | −60 |
| 2015 | +31 |
| 2016 | +125 |
| 2017 | +193 |
| 2018 | +175 |
| 2019 | −34 |
| 2021 | +135 |
| 2022 | +122 |
| 2023 | +73 |
| 2024 | −13 |
| 2025 | +54 |
Saguache County stretches across the San Luis Valley floor at over 7,000 feet elevation, with fewer than 6,000 residents spread across nearly 3,170 square miles. Its 2024 presidential margin of D+3.7 reflects a competitive mix of Hispanic farming communities and rural ranching households.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 73.3 points in 1896 and a Republican high of 36.5 points in 1892. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 10.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 3.7 points.
A population of 6,580, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,082 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Costilla County and Conejos County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Costilla County
Colorado
89.2twin score
2004–2020 trajectory≠ % unaffiliated
Conejos County
Colorado
88.1twin score
12-yr trend% Latino% unaffiliated≠ median age
Taos County
New Mexico
88.1twin score
median age% Evangelical% unaffiliated≠ % Catholic
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Saguache County, Colorado. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/08109/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Saguache County, Colorado vote in 2024?
In 2024, Saguache County, Colorado voted Democratic by 3.7 points (D+3.7), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 3,401 votes cast, 1,704 went Democratic and 1,577 went Republican.
When did Saguache County, Colorado last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Saguache County, Colorado voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Saguache County, Colorado?
Saguache County, Colorado has a population of 6,580 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Saguache County, Colorado?
Median household income in Saguache County, Colorado is $50,082 — below the national median of $80,734. The Colorado state median is $95,470.
What is the political history of Saguache County, Colorado?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Saguache County, Colorado from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 16 went Republican.