Bakersfield, California
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −31.0% |
| 2008 | −14.5% |
| 2012 | −14.0% |
| 2016 | −6.4% |
| 2020 | −3.1% |
| 2024 | −15.5% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 41.0%Harris56,388 | 56.5%Trump77,644 | 2.5% | R+15.5 | R+12.4 | R+14.0 | 137,499 | |
| R | 47.3%Biden69,805 | 50.4%Trump74,344 | 2.3% | R+3.1 | D+3.3 | R+7.5 | 147,564 | |
| R | 44.0%Clinton50,421 | 50.4%Trump57,758 | 5.5% | R+6.4 | D+7.6 | R+8.5 | 114,523 | |
| R | 41.6%Obama43,765 | 55.6%Romney58,481 | 2.7% | R+14.0 | D+0.5 | R+17.9 | 105,121 | |
| R | 42.5%Obama45,421 | 57.0%McCain60,936 | 0.5% | R+14.5 | D+16.5 | R+21.8 | 106,872 | |
| R | 34.1%Kerry33,491 | 65.1%Bush63,946 | 0.8% | R+31.0 | — | R+28.5 | 98,232 |
Despite sitting in heavily Democratic California, Bakersfield anchors one of the state's most reliably Republican congressional districts, driven by a working-class electorate shaped by the energy sector, agribusiness, and a large Hispanic population whose partisan lean has shifted noticeably in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 31.0 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 12.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.5 points.
A population of 411,986, a 29% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,540 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Visalia and Corpus Christi.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Bakersfield, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0603526/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.