Arizona 4th Congressional District, Arizona: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+3%. Republican peak: R+45 in 1984.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+3MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 88,8632024 5-year
- Median household income
- $89,3002024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 58.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 31.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+39 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+45 in 1984MIT Election Lab
D
STANTON, Greg
−1 liberal+1 conservative
Predecessors: GOSAR, Paul (2021–2023), GOSAR, Paul (2019–2021), GOSAR, Paul (2017–2019), GOSAR, Paul (2015–2017)
Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
Constituent county margins for Congressional District 4, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 19,099 | 20,493 | 40,177 | ||
| D | 20,283 | 19,404 | 40,460 | ||
| R | 13,699 | 14,565 | 30,555 | ||
| R | 11,738 | 14,614 | 26,913 | ||
| R | 11,735 | 14,547 | 26,601 | ||
| R | 9,839 | 13,242 | 23,288 | ||
| R | 7,536 | 9,354 | 17,573 | ||
| R | 7,094 | 7,523 | 15,931 | ||
| R | 5,563 | 7,017 | 17,088 | ||
| R | 4,501 | 8,621 | 13,282 | ||
| R | 3,017 | 8,027 | 11,153 | ||
| R | 2,334 | 6,164 | 9,488 | ||
| R | 2,818 | 5,033 | 8,163 | ||
| R | 1,854 | 4,767 | 6,879 | ||
| R | 1,680 | 3,162 | 5,353 | ||
| R | 2,378 | 2,789 | 5,171 | ||
| R | 1,692 | 2,477 | 4,172 | ||
| R | 1,053 | 1,796 | 2,852 | ||
| R | 980 | 1,505 | 2,485 | ||
| D | 789 | 713 | 1,539 | ||
| D | 627 | 484 | 1,116 | ||
| D | 683 | 441 | 1,132 | ||
| D | 624 | 266 | 928 | ||
| D | 557 | 294 | 863 | ||
| R | 237 | 392 | 629 | ||
| R | 179 | 207 | 463 | ||
| R | 172 | 221 | 393 | ||
| D | 149 | 112 | 285 | ||
| D | 51 | 13 | 110 | ||
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Congressional elections · 18 Senate races
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 50.1% | 47.7% | 3,347,964 |
| 2022 | D | 51.4% | 46.5% | 2,572,294 |
| 2020 | D | 51.2% | 48.8% | 3,355,307 |
| 2018 | D | 50.0% | 47.6% | 2,384,308 |
| 2016 | R | 40.7% | 53.7% | 2,530,730 |
| 2012 | R | 46.2% | 49.2% | 2,243,422 |
| 2010 | R | 34.7% | 58.9% | 1,708,484 |
| 2006 | R | 43.5% | 53.3% | 1,526,782 |
| 2004 | R | 20.6% | 76.7% | 1,961,677 |
| 2000 | R | 0.0% | 79.3% | 1,397,076 |
| 1998 | R | 27.2% | 68.7% | 1,013,280 |
| 1994 | R | 39.5% | 53.7% | 1,119,060 |
| 1992 | R | 31.6% | 55.8% | 1,382,051 |
| 1988 | D | 56.7% | 41.1% | 1,164,539 |
| 1986 | R | 39.5% | 60.5% | 862,921 |
| 1982 | D | 56.9% | 40.3% | 723,885 |
| 1980 | R | 48.4% | 49.5% | 874,238 |
| 1976 | D | 54.0% | 43.3% | 741,210 |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.4%
English
9.8%
Irish
8.8%
Italian
4.4%
American
4.2%
Polish
2.2%
French
1.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$89,300
Congressional District 4 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 4$89,300
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.4%
Working age (18–64)9.9%
Seniors (65+)10.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
74.0%
speak English only
Spanish19.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.7%
Other Indo-European2.4%
Other languages1.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Arizona's 4th stretches across rural and exurban terrain west and south of Phoenix, where Republican presidential candidates have carried the district by margins exceeding 40 points, making it among the most one-sided congressional seats in the state.
The Democratic margin in Arizona 4th Congressional District has rarely exceeded thirty-nine points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-five points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by three points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 59% non-Hispanic-white share, a 11% poverty rate, and a median household income of $89,300 — all within the broad national range.
Compare two places, side by side
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Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 4, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0404/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Congressional District 4, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 4, Arizona voted Republican by 3.5 points (R+3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 40,177 votes cast, 19,099 went Democratic and 20,493 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 4, Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Congressional District 4, Arizona as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 8 times, Republican 21 times, and other 0 times.
When did Congressional District 4, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 4, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Congressional District 4, Arizona?
Congressional District 4, Arizona has a population of 88,863 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 4, Arizona?
Median household income in Congressional District 4, Arizona is $89,300 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Congressional District 4, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 4, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 21 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.