Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
presidential margin
2008R+3.92012R+8.02016R+10.52020R+4.72024R+5.5
full record · 1892 → 2024
R+5.5
2024
median income$81,484U.S. $80,734 · PA $77,971
median age40.1U.S. 39.1 · PA 41.2
poverty rate10.1%U.S. 12.5% · PA 11.7%
bachelor’s+ (25+)35.8%U.S. 35.6% · PA 35.2%
non-english12.2%U.S. 22.3% · PA 12.4%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
German25.7%
Irish11.9%
English8.2%
African American†8.1%
African0.4%
Nigerian0.3%
Puerto Rican3.8%
Mexican1.6%
Dominican1.0%
Asian Indian2.0%
Nepalese0.9%
Vietnamese0.6%
religion
other traditions
Mainline12.6%
Other Christian1.6%
Black Protestant1.6%
Muslim1.0%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents, unaffiliated is the unclaimed remainder.

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania

Akashic
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PATrumpR+5.5
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, PAA map of the constituent counties of Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, PA, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Cumberland County, PA · R+9.4Dauphin County, PA · D+5.9Perry County, PA · R+49.3
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican52.2%168,814
Kamala HarrisDemocratic46.6%150,967
Jill SteinGreen1.2%3,866
D+60
R+60
3 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
County-level results (3 counties) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, PA — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Cumberland County, PARepublicanR+9.4
Dauphin County, PADemocraticD+5.9
Perry County, PARepublicanR+49.3
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
R
46.6%Harris150,967
52.2%Trump168,814
1.2%Stein3,866
−5.5%
323,647
R
46.9%Biden147,178
51.6%Trump161,913
1.4%Jorgensen4,524
−4.7%
313,615
R
42.1%Clinton116,423
52.6%Trump145,555
5.3%Johnson14,662
−10.5%
276,640
R
45.2%Obama115,017
53.2%Romney135,379
1.7%Johnson4,311
−8.0%
254,707
R
47.5%Obama124,677
51.4%McCain135,035
1.1%Nader2,866
−3.9%
262,578
R
40.0%Kerry98,650
59.5%Bush146,863
0.5%Badnarik1,204
−19.5%
246,717
R
39.0%Gore79,902
58.4%Bush119,617
2.6%Nader5,362
−19.4%
204,881
R
39.8%Clinton74,296
51.8%Dole96,516
8.4%Perot15,659
−11.9%
186,471
R
34.1%Clinton67,711
48.7%Bush96,797
17.3%Perot34,302
−14.6%
198,810
R
37.5%Dukakis63,602
61.7%Bush104,754
0.8%McCarthy1,287
−24.3%
169,643
R
33.9%Mondale58,642
65.3%Reagan112,977
0.7%Johnson1,275
−31.4%
172,894
R
32.1%Carter50,722
58.9%Reagan93,217
9.0%Anderson14,307
−26.9%
158,246
R
38.8%Carter61,955
59.0%Ford94,223
2.2%McCarthy3,534
−20.2%
159,712
R
27.1%McGovern39,880
71.0%Nixon104,488
1.8%Schmitz2,702
−43.9%
147,070
R
30.0%Humphrey43,891
60.2%Nixon87,957
9.8%Wallace14,261
−30.2%
146,109
D
52.0%Johnson78,806
47.4%Goldwater71,767
0.6%Hass835
+4.6%
151,408
R
33.4%Kennedy53,343
66.1%Nixon105,496
0.4%Byrd647
−32.7%
159,486
R
32.0%Stevenson46,453
67.7%Eisenhower98,321
0.4%Andrews553
−35.7%
145,327
R
33.8%Stevenson46,789
66.0%Eisenhower91,420
0.3%Hallinan394
−32.2%
138,603
R
36.9%Truman41,746
62.2%Dewey70,333
0.9%Thurmond1,042
−25.3%
113,121
R
40.1%Roosevelt46,017
59.5%Dewey68,229
0.4%Thomas510
−19.4%
114,756
R
47.9%Roosevelt58,664
51.9%Willkie63,568
0.3%Thomas362
−4.0%
122,594
D
52.6%Roosevelt67,886
46.7%Landon60,269
0.7%Lemke964
+5.9%
129,119
R
40.6%Roosevelt38,231
57.1%Hoover53,778
2.3%Thomas2,163
−16.5%
94,172
R
17.6%Smith16,111
81.7%Hoover74,747
0.7%Thomas640
−64.1%
91,498
R
28.7%Davis19,357
62.7%Coolidge42,219
8.6%La Follette5,776
−33.9%
67,352
R
33.6%Cox20,759
62.2%Harding38,460
4.2%Debs2,623
−28.6%
61,842
R
46.0%Wilson20,263
49.5%Hughes21,825
4.5%Benson1,997
−3.5%
44,085
O
34.1%Wilson14,434
22.9%Taft9,718
43.0%Roosevelt18,234
Roosevelt +9.0
42,386
R
35.7%Bryan15,133
59.3%Taft25,167
5.0%Debs2,121
−23.7%
42,421
R
29.7%Parker12,172
66.1%Roosevelt27,079
4.2%Debs1,717
−36.4%
40,968
R
38.0%Bryan15,258
58.9%McKinley23,660
3.1%Woolley1,239
−20.9%
40,157
R
35.6%Bryan14,263
61.1%McKinley24,467
3.3%Palmer1,331
−25.5%
40,061
R
44.3%Cleveland15,671
52.7%Harrison18,650
3.0%Weaver1,072
−8.4%
35,393
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1892 to 2024. Most recent: −5.5% in 2024.flipped R · 1968−5.5%DR18922024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1892−8.4%
1896−25.5%
1900−20.9%
1904−36.4%
1908−23.7%
1912+11.1%
1916−3.5%
1920−28.6%
1924−33.9%
1928−64.1%
1932−16.5%
1936+5.9%
1940−4.0%
1944−19.4%
1948−25.3%
1952−32.2%
1956−35.7%
1960−32.7%
1964+4.6%
1968−30.2%
1972−43.9%
1976−20.2%
1980−26.9%
1984−31.4%
1988−24.3%
1992−14.6%
1996−11.9%
2000−19.4%
2004−19.5%
2008−3.9%
2012−8.0%
2016−10.5%
2020−4.7%
2024−5.5%
DemocraticRepublican

Harrisburg's concentration of state employees and Dauphin County's suburban precincts pull the metro toward competitive margins, while Cumberland County's faster-growing exurbs have trended reliably Republican in recent cycles by double digits.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 11.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 64.1 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 0.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.5 points.

A population of 604,155, a 72% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,484 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Omaha, NE-IA and Raleigh-Cary, NC.

Political twins — metros

The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Omaha, NE-IA
79.9twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectorypopulation scale≠ Puerto Rican ancestry
Raleigh-Cary, NC
77.6twin score
12-yr trendpopulation scale% Asian≠ college share
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN
76.7twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectorymedian income≠ elasticity

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/25420/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

counties3
Cumberland CountyDauphin CountyPerry County

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 5.5 points (R+5.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 323,647 votes cast, 150,967 went Democratic and 168,814 went Republican.
When did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania has a population of 604,155 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania is $81,484 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 31 went Republican.