- Lead
- 28,357
- Total
- 97,537
- vs nation
- D+30.5
Virginia 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 29,424
- Total
- 100,812
- vs nation
- D+24.7
- Lead
- 21,035
- Total
- 90,725
- vs nation
- D+21.1
- Lead
- 15,714
- Total
- 87,616
- vs nation
- D+14.1
- Lead
- 15,541
- Total
- 83,310
- vs nation
- D+11.4
- Lead
- 187
- Total
- 66,653
- vs nation
- D+2.7
- Lead
- 1,471
- Total
- 55,364
- vs nation
- R+3.2
- Lead
- 774
- Total
- 48,140
- vs nation
- R+10.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+29.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 218,1182024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,633 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 134 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $74,7202024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 35.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 36.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 19.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+89.3 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+28.3 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 35, GA · twin score 95.4
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
63.9%
62,317 votes · D+29.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 63.7%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
49.7%
33,097 votes · D+0.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 40.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
64,215votes
63.7% of the vote · D+29.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 62,317 votes
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
35,503votes
40.5% of the vote · D+17.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 34,791 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+30.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+29.1 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +24.7 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
−2.7pts R vs U.S.
Place D+0.3 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −11.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 65.7%51,814 | 34.3%27,055 | 78,869 |
| 2018 | D | 60.6%52,476 | 39.4%34,113 | 86,589 |
Virginia 15th State Senate District sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 89.3 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 28.3 points in 1972. The 2024 margin was 29.1 points.
A population of 218,118, a 36% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,720 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 35 and State Senate District 38.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/51015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.