- Lead
- 15,737
- Total
- 141,654
- vs nation
- R+9.6
New York 38th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 4,094
- Total
- 141,903
- vs nation
- R+1.6
- Lead
- 10,648
- Total
- 127,270
- vs nation
- D+6.3
- Lead
- 10,432
- Total
- 117,360
- vs nation
- D+5.0
- Lead
- 10,083
- Total
- 124,497
- vs nation
- D+0.8
- Lead
- 1,814
- Total
- 123,377
- vs nation
- D+3.9
- Lead
- 22,292
- Total
- 115,790
- vs nation
- D+18.7
- Lead
- 23,541
- Total
- 106,075
- vs nation
- D+13.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+11.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 323,5162024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,216 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 146 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $108,8692024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 19.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+29.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.2 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 9, NY · twin score 83.4
presidential history
Party record book
New York 38th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2020 (partial returns from 1876) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
64.7%
44,393 votes · D+29.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Samuel J. Tilden, 1876 · 60.6%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
70.1%
31,320 votes · R+40.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 65.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
72,353votes
51.0% of the vote · D+2.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 66,870 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
68,259votes
48.1% of the vote · D+2.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 64,399 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Alton B. Parker1904
+21.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+1.7 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · +18.7 pts
Republican
Thomas E. Dewey1944
+29.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+21.6 · U.S. D+7.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Wendell Willkie, 1940 · +26.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 43.2%55,884 | 56.8%73,597 | 129,481 |
| 2020 | D | 57.3%69,509 | 42.7%51,847 | 121,356 |
The district recorded a Republican presidential margin of R+11.0 in 2024 and D+8.1 in 2008, switching sides at least once in between. The district had about 288,000 residents, 62.4% White alone in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 29.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 40.2 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 14.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.1 points.
A population of 323,516, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $108,869 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 9 and State Senate District 36.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 38th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/36038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.