- Lead
- 2,077
- Total
- 110,500
- vs nation
- R+0.4
Missouri 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 3,849
- Total
- 114,422
- vs nation
- R+7.8
- Lead
- 16,002
- Total
- 106,148
- vs nation
- R+17.2
- Lead
- 20,911
- Total
- 109,156
- vs nation
- R+23.0
- Lead
- 14,739
- Total
- 113,228
- vs nation
- R+20.3
- Lead
- 26,986
- Total
- 113,845
- vs nation
- R+21.2
- Lead
- 27,653
- Total
- 103,027
- vs nation
- R+27.4
- Lead
- 23,051
- Total
- 97,132
- vs nation
- R+32.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 186,3302024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,176 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 158 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $131,4352024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.9 in 1884MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 24, MO · twin score 91.4
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
48.0%
53,054 votes · R+1.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 47.5%
Republican
James G. Blaine1884
74.8%
1,179 votes · R+49.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James A. Garfield, 1880 · 71.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
54,400votes
47.5% of the vote · R+3.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 53,054 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
88,014votes
41.4% of the vote · R+29.5 · a third-party candidate carried the Place · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 75,564 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
−0.4pts D vs U.S.
Place R+1.9 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · −3.4 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
+42.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+23.0 · U.S. D+19.5 · a third-party candidate carried the Place · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · +32.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 58.7%57,790 | 41.3%40,730 | 98,520 |
Missouri 15th State Senate District sits in the Border South. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 49.9 points in 1884. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.5 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.9 points.
A population of 186,330, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $131,435 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 24 and State Senate District 11.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/29015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.