- Lead
- 5,392
- Total
- 153,507
- vs nation
- R+2.0
Arizona 4th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,433
- Total
- 157,458
- vs nation
- R+3.5
- Lead
- 5,544
- Total
- 128,181
- vs nation
- R+6.4
- Lead
- 14,004
- Total
- 114,120
- vs nation
- R+16.1
- Lead
- 13,687
- Total
- 113,481
- vs nation
- R+19.3
- Lead
- 15,892
- Total
- 98,991
- vs nation
- R+13.6
- Lead
- 8,788
- Total
- 74,065
- vs nation
- R+12.4
- Lead
- 2,776
- Total
- 67,195
- vs nation
- R+12.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+3.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 244,2982024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,431 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 101 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $110,1192024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 76.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+35.9 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+46.0 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 15, MO · twin score 89.3
presidential history
Party record book
Arizona 4th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
66.5%
2,729 votes · D+35.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 62.8%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
72.6%
34,487 votes · R+46.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 69.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
78,448votes
49.8% of the vote · D+0.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 72,970 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
78,362votes
51.0% of the vote · R+3.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 77,015 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+18.2pts D vs U.S.
Place R+7.0 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · +15.3 pts
Republican
Ronald Reagan1980
+32.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+42.0 · U.S. R+9.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barry Goldwater, 1964 · +32.0 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 48.9%50,885 | 51.1%53,250 | 104,135 |
Arizona Senate District 4 sits in the greater Phoenix region and has trended toward single-digit presidential margins, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide suburban shifts rather than a safe seat for either coalition.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 35.9 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 46.0 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 3.5 points.
A population of 244,298, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $110,119 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 15 and State Senate District 17.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arizona 4th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/04004/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.