- Lead
- 30,433
- Total
- 164,004
- vs nation
- R+17.1
Michigan 31st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 30,474
- Total
- 156,086
- vs nation
- R+24.0
- Lead
- 38,597
- Total
- 133,326
- vs nation
- R+31.0
- Lead
- 39,448
- Total
- 123,187
- vs nation
- R+35.9
- Lead
- 27,396
- Total
- 127,089
- vs nation
- R+28.8
- Lead
- 49,772
- Total
- 119,624
- vs nation
- R+39.1
- Lead
- 43,282
- Total
- 102,622
- vs nation
- R+42.7
- Lead
- 29,832
- Total
- 88,540
- vs nation
- R+42.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+18.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 264,5732024 5-year
- Population density
- 598 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 443 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $90,9102024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+2.3 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+69.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 30, MI · twin score 79.0
presidential history
Party record book
Michigan 31st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
46.3%
19,686 votes · R+7.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 44.1%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
84.5%
14,885 votes · R+69.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 78.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
65,531votes
40.0% of the vote · R+18.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 61,412 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
95,964votes
58.5% of the vote · R+18.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 91,886 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Grover Cleveland1892
−9.7pts D vs U.S.
Place R+8.0 · U.S. D+1.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · −17.1 pts
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
+52.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+69.6 · U.S. R+17.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +51.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 36.8%55,973 | 63.2%96,061 | 152,034 |
| 2020 | R | 34.2%46,144 | 65.8%88,676 | 134,820 |
Michigan 31st State Senate District sits in the Great Lakes. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 2.3 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 69.6 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.0 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.6 points.
A population of 264,573, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $90,910 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 30 and State Senate District 21.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Michigan 31st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/26031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.