- Lead
- 4,735
- Total
- 100,228
- vs nation
- R+3.3
Massachusetts Third Bristol and Plymouth District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 4,969
- Total
- 98,531
- vs nation
- D+0.6
- Lead
- 1,193
- Total
- 89,054
- vs nation
- R+3.4
- Lead
- 2,980
- Total
- 82,081
- vs nation
- R+0.2
- Lead
- 5,721
- Total
- 81,911
- vs nation
- R+0.3
- Lead
- 8,053
- Total
- 77,539
- vs nation
- D+12.8
- Lead
- 12,569
- Total
- 69,934
- vs nation
- D+17.5
- Lead
- 16,083
- Total
- 65,274
- vs nation
- D+16.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+4.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 181,6572024 5-year
- Population density
- 555 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 327 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $98,9252024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 82.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+43.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.2 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Worcester and Hampshire District, MA · twin score 88.1
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts Third Bristol and Plymouth District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
71.7%
37,414 votes · D+43.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 56.9%
Republican
William McKinley1896
79.3%
6,981 votes · R+64.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 76.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
50,559votes
51.3% of the vote · D+5.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 46,819 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
51,554votes
51.4% of the vote · R+4.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 45,590 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+21.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+43.6 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · +18.1 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+58.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+64.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +35.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 70.6%54,914 | 29.4%22,813 | 77,727 |
| 2020 | D | 61.8%51,572 | 38.2%31,901 | 83,473 |
Spanning parts of Bristol and Plymouth counties along Massachusetts's South Coast, this district shifted to R+4.7 in 2024 — a notable outlier in a heavily Democratic state, reflecting working-class demographic pressures reshaping coastal mill towns.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 43.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 64.2 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 4.7 points.
A population of 181,657, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $98,925 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Worcester and Hampshire District and First Bristol and Plymouth District.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts Third Bristol and Plymouth District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/25D36/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.