- Lead
- 5,538
- Total
- 80,162
- vs nation
- R+5.4
Massachusetts First Bristol and Plymouth District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 3,408
- Total
- 79,986
- vs nation
- R+0.2
- Lead
- 4,728
- Total
- 73,784
- vs nation
- D+4.3
- Lead
- 10,670
- Total
- 69,604
- vs nation
- D+11.5
- Lead
- 12,903
- Total
- 69,973
- vs nation
- D+11.2
- Lead
- 15,280
- Total
- 66,926
- vs nation
- D+25.3
- Lead
- 18,134
- Total
- 60,423
- vs nation
- D+29.5
- Lead
- 20,470
- Total
- 55,619
- vs nation
- D+28.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+6.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 172,0752024 5-year
- Population density
- 815 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 211 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $76,2332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+54.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.7 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Second Bristol and Plymouth District, MA · twin score 94.8
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts First Bristol and Plymouth District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
77.1%
39,399 votes · D+54.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 64.4%
Republican
William McKinley1896
77.7%
6,033 votes · R+58.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 75.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
40,912votes
51.1% of the vote · D+4.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 40,867 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
41,991votes
52.4% of the vote · R+6.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 37,504 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+31.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+54.3 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · +31.0 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+52.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+58.7 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +27.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 77.7%51,432 | 22.3%14,756 | 66,188 |
| 2020 | D | 57.5%44,690 | 42.5%32,991 | 77,681 |
Spanning parts of Bristol and Plymouth counties along southeastern Massachusetts, this district backed the 2024 Republican presidential candidate by roughly 7 points, reflecting a broader working-class coastal realignment visible across the region.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 54.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 58.7 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 11.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 6.9 points.
A population of 172,075, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,233 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Second Bristol and Plymouth District and State Senate District 9.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts First Bristol and Plymouth District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/25D37/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.