HarrisDemocratic12.6%3,943TrumpRepublican86.7%27,182OtherAll other candidates0.8%237
R+74.1- Lead
- 23,239
- Total
- 31,362
- vs nation
- R+72.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
Tennessee 38th State House District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic14.4%4,206TrumpRepublican84.8%24,775OtherAll other candidates0.9%249
R+70.4- Lead
- 20,569
- Total
- 29,230
- vs nation
- R+74.8
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic16.0%3,802TrumpRepublican81.8%19,441OtherAll other candidates2.2%531
R+65.8- Lead
- 15,639
- Total
- 23,774
- vs nation
- R+67.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic24.9%5,564RomneyRepublican73.6%16,421OtherAll other candidates1.4%316
R+48.7- Lead
- 10,857
- Total
- 22,301
- vs nation
- R+52.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic29.4%6,804McCainRepublican68.6%15,903OtherAll other candidates2.0%463
R+39.3- Lead
- 9,099
- Total
- 23,170
- vs nation
- R+46.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic39.9%9,734BushRepublican59.6%14,549OtherAll other candidates0.5%124
R+19.7- Lead
- 4,815
- Total
- 24,407
- vs nation
- R+17.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic46.6%10,173BushRepublican52.2%11,382OtherAll other candidates1.2%256
R+5.5- Lead
- 1,209
- Total
- 21,811
- vs nation
- R+6.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic45.6%8,380DoleRepublican45.8%8,415OtherAll other candidates8.6%1,580
R+0.2- Lead
- 35
- Total
- 18,375
- vs nation
- R+8.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+74.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 68,1702024 5-year
- Population density
- 45 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,526 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $50,0212024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+15.5 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+74.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 45, VA · twin score 98.1
presidential history
Party record book
Tennessee 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
57.8%
1,377 votes · D+15.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 51.2%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
86.7%
27,182 votes · R+74.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 84.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
10,173votes
46.6% of the vote · R+5.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 10,143 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
27,182votes
86.7% of the vote · R+74.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 24,775 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1992
+1.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+7.3 · U.S. D+5.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · +1.2 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+74.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+70.4 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +72.6 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RKelly KeislingState House · 38
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 12.5%3,280 | 87.5%23,015 | 26,295 |
| 2020 | R | 13.5%3,320 | 86.5%21,338 | 24,658 |
District 38 recorded an R+74.1 presidential margin in 2024, placing it among the most one-sided state house districts in the country. Its electorate shows near-uniform partisan alignment, leaving little competitive ground for statewide or national candidates.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 15.5 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 74.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 74.1 points.
A population of 68,170, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,021 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 45 and State House District 22.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District 45
Virginia
98.1twin score
2012–2024 trajectory
State House District 22
Kentucky
97.9twin score
2008–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
State House District 46
Virginia
97.8twin score
2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tennessee 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/47038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Tennessee at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within Tennessee 38th State House District
counties it covers5
Frequently asked questions
How did Tennessee 38th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tennessee 38th State House District voted Republican by 74.1 points (R+74.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 31,362 votes cast, 3,943 went Democratic and 27,182 went Republican.
When did Tennessee 38th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tennessee 38th State House District voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Tennessee 38th State House District?
Tennessee 38th State House District has a population of 68,170 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tennessee 38th State House District?
Median household income in Tennessee 38th State House District is $50,021 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of Tennessee 38th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tennessee 38th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 35 went Republican.