- Lead
- 11,855
- Total
- 32,931
- vs nation
- R+34.5
Tennessee 16th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 11,152
- Total
- 32,284
- vs nation
- R+39.0
- Lead
- 11,379
- Total
- 26,721
- vs nation
- R+44.7
- Lead
- 12,454
- Total
- 25,969
- vs nation
- R+51.8
- Lead
- 11,860
- Total
- 27,667
- vs nation
- R+50.1
- Lead
- 11,948
- Total
- 26,619
- vs nation
- R+42.4
- Lead
- 8,279
- Total
- 22,075
- vs nation
- R+38.0
- Lead
- 5,487
- Total
- 19,996
- vs nation
- R+36.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+36.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 67,8602024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,166 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 58.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $72,9852024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+5.4 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 22, AL · twin score 96.2
presidential history
Party record book
Tennessee 16th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
50.5%
2,170 votes · D+1.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 47.7%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
80.8%
2,559 votes · R+61.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 79.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
10,316votes
31.3% of the vote · R+36.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 10,255 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
22,171votes
67.3% of the vote · R+36.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 21,407 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1940
−14.1pts D vs U.S.
Place R+4.1 · U.S. D+9.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · −14.1 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+51.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+48.0 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +50.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 37.6%11,393 | 62.4%18,918 | 30,311 |
| 2020 | R | 37.9%11,158 | 62.1%18,289 | 29,447 |
Tennessee House District 16 delivers lopsided Republican margins—36 points in 2024—reflecting a predominantly rural electorate where GOP alignment has grown steadily over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 5.4 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 61.6 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.0 points.
A population of 67,860, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,985 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 22 and State House District 89.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Tennessee 16th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/47016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.