- Lead
- 6,060
- Total
- 18,332
- vs nation
- D+34.5
Tennessee 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 8,299
- Total
- 20,951
- vs nation
- D+35.2
- Lead
- 5,657
- Total
- 16,994
- vs nation
- D+31.2
- Lead
- 4,948
- Total
- 15,627
- vs nation
- D+27.8
- Lead
- 6,656
- Total
- 17,567
- vs nation
- D+30.6
- Lead
- 6,004
- Total
- 16,591
- vs nation
- D+38.6
- Lead
- 6,216
- Total
- 14,871
- vs nation
- D+41.3
- Lead
- 7,031
- Total
- 14,734
- vs nation
- D+39.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+33.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 69,1192024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,375 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 29.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $41,2542024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 57.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 26.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+72.6 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 72, SC · twin score 96.4
presidential history
Party record book
Tennessee 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
86.3%
3,412 votes · D+72.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1900 · 85.7%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
42.4%
3,167 votes · D+13.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · 37.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
14,345votes
68.5% of the vote · D+39.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 12,000 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
6,046votes
28.9% of the vote · D+39.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 5,934 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1900
+80.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+72.5 · U.S. R+7.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +76.0 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1968
−25.5pts R vs U.S.
Place D+24.8 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · −27.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Tennessee 15th State House District sits in the Border South and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 72.6 points in 1936. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 33.1 points.
A population of 69,119, a 58% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $41,254 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 72 and State House District 21.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Tennessee 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/47015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.