- Lead
- 19,505
- Total
- 34,221
- vs nation
- D+58.5
New York 31st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 29,495
- Total
- 38,579
- vs nation
- D+72.0
- Lead
- 29,511
- Total
- 35,072
- vs nation
- D+82.1
- Lead
- 27,122
- Total
- 31,342
- vs nation
- D+82.7
- Lead
- 27,243
- Total
- 32,386
- vs nation
- D+76.8
- Lead
- 24,169
- Total
- 29,660
- vs nation
- D+83.9
- Lead
- 23,755
- Total
- 28,451
- vs nation
- D+83.0
- Lead
- 21,313
- Total
- 25,788
- vs nation
- D+74.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+57.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 128,9322024 5-year
- Population density
- 8,653 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 14.9 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $82,2002024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 4.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 47.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 21.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+86.5 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 32, NY · twin score 99.4
presidential history
Party record book
New York 31st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2020 (partial returns from 1876) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
93.0%
29,157 votes · D+86.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 92.0%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
40.1%
1,602 votes · D+14.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 28.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
33,922votes
87.9% of the vote · D+76.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 33,548 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
7,873votes
28.7% of the vote · D+42.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 7,490 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Alton B. Parker1904
+89.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+70.1 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · +83.9 pts
Republican
Thomas E. Dewey1944
−30.1pts R vs U.S.
Place D+37.6 · U.S. D+7.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Wendell Willkie, 1940 · −37.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 67.4%23,943 | 32.6%11,601 | 35,544 |
Assembly District 31 recorded a 57.0-point Democratic presidential margin in 2024, making it among the most competitive state house districts in New York and a reliable bellwether for shifts in suburban or outer-borough voter sentiment.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 86.5 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 19.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 57.0 points.
A population of 128,932, a 4% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,200 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 32 and Assembly District 29.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 31st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.