- Lead
- 7,106
- Total
- 72,935
- vs nation
- D+11.2
New York 21st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 14,140
- Total
- 74,673
- vs nation
- D+14.5
- Lead
- 8,038
- Total
- 66,811
- vs nation
- D+9.9
- Lead
- 7,951
- Total
- 58,557
- vs nation
- D+9.7
- Lead
- 9,411
- Total
- 65,712
- vs nation
- D+7.0
- Lead
- 7,340
- Total
- 63,612
- vs nation
- D+14.0
- Lead
- 15,408
- Total
- 61,475
- vs nation
- D+24.5
- Lead
- 14,114
- Total
- 56,871
- vs nation
- D+16.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+9.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 139,7142024 5-year
- Population density
- 8,787 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 15.9 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $140,9502024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 51.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 23.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+27.0 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.2 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 95, NY · twin score 91.7
presidential history
Party record book
New York 21st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1900–2020 · 31 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
63.4%
41,636 votes · D+27.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · 60.6%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
72.8%
3,146 votes · R+50.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 66.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
43,868votes
58.7% of the vote · D+18.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 41,636 votes
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
42,253votes
60.4% of the vote · R+21.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 37,724 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
+24.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+25.1 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · +16.3 pts
Republican
Thomas E. Dewey1948
+43.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+38.8 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · +40.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 51.2%33,965 | 48.8%32,316 | 66,281 |
Assembly District 21 returned a 9.7-point Democratic presidential margin in 2024, reflecting the solidly blue lean typical of New York's urban and inner-suburban legislative districts at this population density.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 27.0 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 50.2 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 9.7 points.
A population of 139,714, a 51% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $140,950 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 95 and Assembly District 11.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 21st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.