- Lead
- 217
- Total
- 2,063
- vs nation
- D+12.0
New Hampshire State House District Grafton 3
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 335
- Total
- 2,016
- vs nation
- D+12.2
- Lead
- 137
- Total
- 1,835
- vs nation
- D+5.4
- Lead
- 221
- Total
- 1,756
- vs nation
- D+8.7
- Lead
- 290
- Total
- 1,781
- vs nation
- D+9.0
- Lead
- 55
- Total
- 1,740
- vs nation
- D+5.6
- Lead
- 127
- Total
- 1,482
- vs nation
- R+9.1
- Lead
- 36
- Total
- 1,326
- vs nation
- R+5.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+10.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 3,3572024 5-year
- Population density
- 12 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 284 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $85,4352024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+16.6 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.8 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District Grafton 04, NH · twin score 97.0
presidential history
Party record book
New Hampshire State House District Grafton 3 · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
57.5%
1,160 votes · D+16.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 57.0%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
78.4%
650 votes · R+56.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 75.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
1,160votes
57.5% of the vote · D+16.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 1,111 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
894votes
43.3% of the vote · D+10.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 832 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+12.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+16.6 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +12.0 pts
Republican
Alf Landon1936
+48.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+24.6 · U.S. D+24.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +46.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 60.5%1,195 | 39.5%781 | 1,976 |
With roughly 3,400 residents, Grafton 03 punches above its size in partisan signal, posting a double-digit Democratic presidential margin in 2024 in a state known for razor-thin statewide results.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 16.6 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 56.8 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 10.5 points.
A population of 3,357, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $85,435 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District Grafton 04 and State House District Grafton 09.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New Hampshire State House District Grafton 3. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/33403/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.