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state house district

Montana 15th State House District

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1920–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1920 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

Blackfeet22.0%1.0%—

German8.2%22.9%12.5%

English6.4%13.1%9.5%

Irish5.1%13.5%9.4%

Norwegian2.9%7.5%—

American1.9%5.4%5.3%

Scottish1.2%2.6%1.3%

Italian1.2%3.2%4.8%

Swedish1.1%1.4%—

Mexican2.2%2.9%11.3%

Spaniard0.4%0.3%—

Spanish0.2%0.3%—

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	MT HD 15	Montana	United States
Median age	33.8	40.8	39.1
Age 18–24	6.8%	9.1%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	21.5%	20.0%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	MT HD 15	Montana	United States
Median household income	$48,972	$72,509	$84,427
Poverty rate	28.5%	11.5%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	34.4%	35.3%	35.6%

Housing and tenure

Measure	MT HD 15	Montana	United States
Owner-occupied homes	64.8%	69.2%	65.2%
Renter-occupied homes	35.2%	30.8%	34.8%
Median home value	$264,100	$375,800	$332,700
Median gross rent (monthly)	$578	$1,081	$1,413
Renters paying 30%+ of income	36.5%	44.8%	51.1%
Vacant housing units	12.5%	13.2%	10.1%

Getting to work

Measure	MT HD 15	Montana	United States
Mean commute	20.4 min	19.1 min	26.4 min
Commutes 60 minutes or more	4.0%	4.8%	8.6%
Drives alone to work	65.2%	71.1%	68.8%
Takes public transit	0.1%	0.6%	3.2%
Works from home	11.7%	12.5%	15.1%

Languages at home

Measure	MT HD 15	Montana	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	4.2%	4.2%	22.3%
Spanish	1.2%	1.5%	13.6%
Other languages	1.0%	0.7%	0.8%

Religious landscape

Measure	MT HD 15	Montana	United States
Catholic	—	10.3%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	—	13.6%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	—	65.3%	51.5%

Origins and service

Measure	MT HD 15	Montana	United States
Foreign-born residents	1.4%	2.3%	14.1%
Naturalized citizens	0.6%	1.2%	7.4%
Not U.S. citizens	0.8%	1.1%	6.8%
Veterans (18+)	4.7%	9.0%	6.2%
Income inequality (Gini)	0.522	0.465	0.483

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations · American Community Survey 2024 — housing and tenure (B25003, B25002, B25077, B25064, B25070), commuting (B08013, B08303, B08301), origins and service (B05002, B21001, B19083).

President results by year

Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries

HarrisDemocratic51.5%2,150TrumpRepublican44.6%1,863OtherAll other candidates3.9%162

D+6.9

Lead: 287
Total: 4,175
vs nation: D+8.3

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

BidenDemocratic58.2%2,572TrumpRepublican39.2%1,733OtherAll other candidates2.5%111

D+19.0

Lead: 839
Total: 4,416
vs nation: D+14.5

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ClintonDemocratic56.6%2,004TrumpRepublican36.2%1,281OtherAll other candidates7.2%253

D+20.4

Lead: 723
Total: 3,538
vs nation: D+18.3

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ObamaDemocratic63.0%2,185RomneyRepublican35.0%1,214OtherAll other candidates2.1%72

D+28.0

Lead: 971
Total: 3,471
vs nation: D+24.1

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ObamaDemocratic66.9%2,617McCainRepublican28.4%1,109OtherAll other candidates4.7%183

D+38.6

Lead: 1,508
Total: 3,909
vs nation: D+31.3

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

KerryDemocratic60.1%1,968BushRepublican37.9%1,240OtherAll other candidates2.0%66

D+22.2

Lead: 728
Total: 3,274
vs nation: D+24.7

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

GoreDemocratic53.4%1,579BushRepublican37.4%1,107OtherAll other candidates9.1%270

D+16.0

Lead: 472
Total: 2,956
vs nation: D+15.4

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ClintonDemocratic56.8%1,782DoleRepublican26.8%841OtherAll other candidates16.4%516

D+30.0

Lead: 941
Total: 3,139
vs nation: D+21.5

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+6.9MIT Election Lab
Population: 10,8382024 5-year
Population density: 4.5 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 2,408 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $48,9722024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 33.2%2024 5-year
Black: 0.1%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 3.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+73.7 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Most similar: State House District 32, MT · twin score 93.2

presidential history

Party record book

Montana 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

1920–2024 · 27 presidential cycles

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Franklin D. Roosevelt1936

85.8%

1,883 votes · D+73.7 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 83.3%

Republican

Donald Trump2024

44.6%

1,863 votes · D+6.9 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1980 · 39.3%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Barack Obama2008

2,617votes

66.9% of the vote · D+38.6 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 2,572 votes

Republican

Donald Trump2024

1,863votes

44.6% of the vote · D+6.9 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,733 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

James M. Cox1920

+91.8pts D vs U.S.

Place D+65.6 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Al Smith, 1928 · +57.9 pts

Republican

Donald Trump2024

−8.3pts R vs U.S.

Place D+6.9 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · −14.5 pts

current representation

Current officeholders

DThedis CroweState House · 15

State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.

Montana 15th State House District sits in the Northern Rockies. In 2024 it voted Democratic.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 73.7 points in 1936. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 12.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 6.9 points.

A population of 10,838, a 33% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $48,972 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 32 and State House District 31.

Political twins — state-house districts

The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

State House District 32

2008 marginpopulation scale% unaffiliated≠ elasticity

State House District 31

elasticity2008 marginpopulation scale

State House District 33

elasticitypopulation scale% White

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

District research tools

Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Montana 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/30015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Montana at the ballot boxAll elections →

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Places within Montana 15th State House District

counties it covers4

Flathead County Glacier County Lake County Pondera County

Frequently asked questions

How did Montana 15th State House District vote in 2024?

In 2024, Montana 15th State House District voted Democratic by 6.9 points (D+6.9), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 4,175 votes cast, 2,150 went Democratic and 1,863 went Republican.

How many people live in Montana 15th State House District?

Montana 15th State House District has a population of 10,838 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Montana 15th State House District?

Median household income in Montana 15th State House District is $48,972 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.

What is the political history of Montana 15th State House District?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Montana 15th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 26 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.