akashic
1876–2024
State House District 31·Montana

Montana 31st State House District peaked at D+56; 2024 delivered R+38.

A lightly populated Montana district that broke narrowly Democratic in 2024

1876 — 2024·38 elections
MT
Latest
R+38
in 2024
Archetype
Populist
since the recent cycles
Population
5,787
2024 ACS

Montana 31st State House District, Montana: Populist district. In 2024, voted R+38%. Democratic peak: D+56 in 1936.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+38MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
PopulistAkashic typology
Population
5,7872024 5-year
Median household income
$60,6822024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
59.3%2024 5-year
Black
0.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
2.4%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+56 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+41 in 1920MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
4 counties · 0 D · 4 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−37.6%
7801,7762,648
R
−35.0%
8741,8452,778
R
−36.1%
7141,6252,527
R
−17.7%
1,0131,4632,548
R
−2.9%
1,2431,3192,644
R
−19.8%
1,0351,5582,648
R
−22.5%
9551,5412,602
R
−1.1%
1,1511,1822,796
D
+2.8%
1,0689852,965
R
−7.4%
1,3191,5332,908
R
−24.6%
1,1751,9553,174
R
−28.9%
9851,8803,101
R
−1.8%
1,4201,4732,932
R
−24.9%
1,0931,8483,037
R
−7.2%
1,2461,4532,894
D
+17.9%
1,8391,2793,123
D
+6.8%
1,7091,4913,213
D
+0.9%
1,5931,5643,157
R
−13.6%
1,2571,6572,933
D
+23.9%
1,5389222,578
D
+18.5%
1,4419882,455
D
+31.3%
2,1401,1113,292
D
+56.1%
2,8917753,773
D
+31.5%
1,8249042,921
R
−19.6%
1,0021,4962,516
R
−29.1%
3671,0012,179
R
−40.6%
5671,4552,187
D
+19.7%
9065941,586
O
+1.7%
163153605
R
−23.9%
111186314
R
−36.9%
74163241
R
−21.2%
5280132
D
+7.2%
453983
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
16.2%
American
8.2%
Irish
7.8%
English
6.1%
Scottish
1.8%
French
1.5%
Polish
1.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
1.1%
85+
0.8%
2.1%
75–84
3.5%
5.5%
65–74
5.6%
6.6%
55–64
6.8%
5.2%
45–54
4.3%
5.9%
35–44
6.2%
5.4%
25–34
5.6%
4.2%
18–24
3.5%
10.7%
5–17
10.0%
4.1%
<5
2.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$60,682
State House District 31 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State House District 31$60,682
Montana$72,509
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
19.5%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1825.5%
Working age (18–64)17.1%
Seniors (65+)16.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.8%
speak English only
Other languages0.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.6%
Other Indo-European0.5%
Spanish0.5%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Mainline Protestant
13.8%
Other Christian
10.2%
Catholic & Orthodox
9.3%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.5%
Baptist
1.1%
Methodist
0.2%
Non-Christian
0.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 62.9% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

With just over 10,000 residents, this Montana House district defied the state's strong Republican lean by returning a 3-point Democratic presidential margin in 2024, signaling a competitive pocket worth watching in future cycles.

The Democratic margin in Montana 31st State House District peaked at fifty-six points in 1936. By 1996 the district had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was thirty-eight points, the most Republican-leaning result in the district's modern history.

The economic context is the key. The median household income of $60,682 sits well below state and national norms, and 20% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State House District 31, Montana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/30031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did State House District 31, Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, State House District 31, Montana voted Republican by 37.6 points (R+38), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,648 votes cast, 780 went Democratic and 1,776 went Republican.
What is State House District 31, Montana's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State House District 31, Montana as a "Populist" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 11 times, Republican 21 times, and other 1 times.
When did State House District 31, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State House District 31, Montana voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in State House District 31, Montana?
State House District 31, Montana has a population of 5,787 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State House District 31, Montana?
Median household income in State House District 31, Montana is $60,682 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of State House District 31, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in State House District 31, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 21 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.