- Lead
- 11,644
- Total
- 18,106
- vs nation
- R+62.8
Missouri 158th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 10,788
- Total
- 17,449
- vs nation
- R+66.3
- Lead
- 9,694
- Total
- 16,161
- vs nation
- R+62.1
- Lead
- 6,847
- Total
- 15,280
- vs nation
- R+48.7
- Lead
- 5,710
- Total
- 16,160
- vs nation
- R+42.6
- Lead
- 5,987
- Total
- 15,381
- vs nation
- R+36.5
- Lead
- 4,203
- Total
- 13,609
- vs nation
- R+31.4
- Lead
- 1,700
- Total
- 12,968
- vs nation
- R+21.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+64.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 38,8762024 5-year
- Population density
- 42 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 931 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $57,4242024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 81.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+17.4 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.3 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 159, MO · twin score 98.0
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 158th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
57.8%
3,475 votes · D+16.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 56.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
81.7%
14,793 votes · R+64.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 80.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
6,656votes
56.5% of the vote · D+14.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 6,379 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
14,793votes
81.7% of the vote · R+64.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 13,990 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+22.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+16.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +19.9 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+66.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+61.8 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +62.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+64.3, this rural Missouri district ranks among the state's most one-sided, reflecting the deep partisan sorting that has reshaped small-town and agricultural communities over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 17.4 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 64.3 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 64.3 points.
A population of 38,876, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,424 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 159 and State House District 86.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 158th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29158/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.