- Lead
- 8,634
- Total
- 11,575
- vs nation
- D+76.1
Missouri 78th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 10,404
- Total
- 13,641
- vs nation
- D+71.8
- Lead
- 10,126
- Total
- 13,569
- vs nation
- D+72.5
- Lead
- 11,644
- Total
- 14,670
- vs nation
- D+75.5
- Lead
- 13,088
- Total
- 16,312
- vs nation
- D+73.0
- Lead
- 11,001
- Total
- 14,584
- vs nation
- D+77.9
- Lead
- 9,087
- Total
- 12,372
- vs nation
- D+72.9
- Lead
- 8,632
- Total
- 12,204
- vs nation
- D+62.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+74.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 37,5302024 5-year
- Population density
- 7,506 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $56,3372024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 30.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 56.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+80.2 in 2008MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 79, MO · twin score 99.7
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 78th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1880) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
89.7%
14,639 votes · D+80.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 89.2%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
45.1%
10,699 votes · D+4.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 43.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
28,663votes
76.0% of the vote · D+54.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Adlai Stevenson, 1952 · 25,993 votes
Republican
Wendell Willkie1940
10,934votes
29.8% of the vote · D+40.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 10,699 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
+77.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+75.4 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +76.1 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
−7.2pts R vs U.S.
Place D+26.8 · U.S. D+19.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Charles E. Hughes, 1916 · −16.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+74.6, this district ranks among the most lopsided in the state, reflecting a dense, heavily urban core where Democratic presidential candidates routinely approach supermajority-level support.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 80.2 points in 2008. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 74.6 points.
A population of 37,530, a 30% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,337 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 79 and State House District 84.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 78th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29078/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.