- Lead
- 7,811
- Total
- 17,153
- vs nation
- R+44.1
Missouri 51st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 7,392
- Total
- 17,625
- vs nation
- R+46.4
- Lead
- 6,722
- Total
- 16,728
- vs nation
- R+42.3
- Lead
- 3,639
- Total
- 16,357
- vs nation
- R+26.1
- Lead
- 1,777
- Total
- 17,450
- vs nation
- R+17.5
- Lead
- 2,757
- Total
- 17,396
- vs nation
- R+13.4
- Lead
- 1,023
- Total
- 15,989
- vs nation
- R+6.9
- Lead
- 1,769
- Total
- 14,769
- vs nation
- D+3.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+45.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 38,5622024 5-year
- Population density
- 34 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,145 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $68,0142024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.0 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+45.5 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 3, MO · twin score 97.1
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
66.0%
4,914 votes · D+32.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 64.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
72.1%
12,370 votes · R+45.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 70.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
11,854votes
64.3% of the vote · D+29.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 11,770 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
12,370votes
72.1% of the vote · R+45.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 12,352 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+30.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+5.1 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +29.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+46.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+41.9 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +44.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin exceeding 34 points, this district sits firmly in Missouri's conservative interior, where GOP candidates routinely face little general-election competition and primary outcomes often decide the seat.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.0 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 45.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 45.5 points.
A population of 38,562, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,014 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 3 and State House District 4.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.