- Lead
- 5,450
- Total
- 12,177
- vs nation
- D+46.2
Missouri 45th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 7,474
- Total
- 13,539
- vs nation
- D+50.7
- Lead
- 5,756
- Total
- 13,478
- vs nation
- D+40.6
- Lead
- 5,359
- Total
- 12,604
- vs nation
- D+38.7
- Lead
- 7,025
- Total
- 13,975
- vs nation
- D+43.0
- Lead
- 4,847
- Total
- 11,827
- vs nation
- D+43.4
- Lead
- 3,735
- Total
- 9,438
- vs nation
- D+39.1
- Lead
- 3,474
- Total
- 8,391
- vs nation
- D+32.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+44.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 36,6572024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,332 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 11 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $35,9342024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 71.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 12.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+79.7 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 77, WI · twin score 91.2
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 45th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
89.9%
861 votes · D+79.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 88.8%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
36.4%
2,451 votes · D+27.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 35.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
10,379votes
74.3% of the vote · D+50.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 10,338 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
3,426votes
29.0% of the vote · D+41.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 3,393 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+96.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+71.0 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +94.1 pts
Republican
Bob Dole1996
−32.9pts R vs U.S.
Place D+41.4 · U.S. D+8.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1992 · −35.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 61.7%7,311 | 38.3%4,544 | 11,855 |
Missouri 45th State House District sits in the Border South. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 79.7 points in 1876. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 10.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 44.8 points.
A population of 36,657, a 71% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $35,934 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 77 and State House District 89.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 45th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.