- Lead
- 9,288
- Total
- 27,888
- vs nation
- R+31.8
Minnesota State House District 31B
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 8,531
- Total
- 27,135
- vs nation
- R+35.9
- Lead
- 8,043
- Total
- 23,483
- vs nation
- R+36.3
- Lead
- 6,708
- Total
- 23,249
- vs nation
- R+32.7
- Lead
- 6,539
- Total
- 22,729
- vs nation
- R+36.0
- Lead
- 7,206
- Total
- 21,931
- vs nation
- R+30.4
- Lead
- 4,689
- Total
- 18,032
- vs nation
- R+26.5
- Lead
- 715
- Total
- 14,428
- vs nation
- R+13.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+33.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,9672024 5-year
- Population density
- 263 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 163 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $116,7222024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+16.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+80.8 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 30B, MN · twin score 95.9
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota State House District 31B · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
58.0%
2,924 votes · D+16.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Harry S. Truman, 1948 · 51.7%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
88.0%
330 votes · R+80.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James G. Blaine, 1884 · 82.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
9,018votes
32.3% of the vote · R+33.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 8,979 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
18,306votes
65.6% of the vote · R+33.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 17,510 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+3.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+3.1 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Harry S. Truman, 1948 · +2.4 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+61.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+80.8 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +56.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 44.6%10,478 | 55.4%13,028 | 23,506 |
| 2020 | R | 42.0%9,691 | 58.0%13,393 | 23,084 |
District 31B sits in greater Minnesota's rural heartland, where Donald Trump carried the 2024 presidential vote by 33 points — a margin that reflects the region's deep shift toward Republican candidates over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 16.2 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 80.8 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 33.3 points.
A population of 42,967, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $116,722 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 30B and State House District 29A.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota State House District 31B. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/2731B/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.