akashic
1876–2024
State House District 31A·Minnesota

State House District 31A votes the way the country votes.

A rural Minnesota district where statewide margins run well behind national trends

1876 — 2024·38 elections
MN
Latest
R+4
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
38,620
2024 ACS

State House District 31A, Minnesota: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+4%. Republican peak: R+67 in 1904.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+4MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
38,6202024 5-year
Median household income
$101,8692024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
75.4%2024 5-year
Black
8.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
5.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+41 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+67 in 1904MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
1 counties · 0 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−4.4%
10,18511,15521,949
R
−1.9%
10,52110,93922,017
R
−9.6%
7,8739,73319,371
R
−2.6%
9,2419,74319,444
R
−2.4%
9,0709,52719,002
R
−6.7%
8,3669,57818,151
R
−0.9%
7,0927,22215,185
D
+17.7%
6,6484,35312,933
D
+11.7%
5,6964,11513,558
D
+10.5%
6,0434,88611,034
D
+3.8%
5,2464,85710,161
D
+14.1%
4,7483,4529,160
D
+25.9%
5,0232,9068,167
R
−2.6%
2,9233,0816,190
D
+28.5%
3,1971,7065,228
D
+41.1%
3,3071,3774,693
D
+18.0%
2,1191,4723,599
D
+11.1%
1,2209762,199
D
+11.4%
9747741,756
D
+32.5%
8064021,244
D
+15.5%
566413987
D
+12.1%
5744491,031
D
+24.1%
469270825
D
+21.4%
443283746
R
−19.3%
268398674
R
−48.8%
48328574
R
−54.2%
90365507
R
−3.7%
122132269
O
+1.4%
6259217
R
−42.0%
64164238
R
−67.0%
30162197
R
−45.0%
58158222
R
−32.0%
82162250
D
+14.6%
10475198
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
26.1%
Irish
10.1%
English
6.0%
American
5.8%
Polish
4.8%
French
2.7%
Italian
2.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.5%
85+
0.8%
2.1%
75–84
2.6%
4.6%
65–74
4.9%
6.9%
55–64
6.7%
6.4%
45–54
6.2%
7.3%
35–44
6.9%
6.6%
25–34
6.3%
4.0%
18–24
3.7%
9.0%
5–17
8.7%
3.0%
<5
2.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$101,869
State House District 31A ranks near the middle of US counties.
State House District 31A$101,869
Minnesota$89,062
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
7.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 189.3%
Working age (18–64)6.2%
Seniors (65+)8.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
85.7%
speak English only
Other languages4.8%
Spanish4.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander3.5%
Other Indo-European1.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
20.3%
Mainline Protestant
9.5%
Pentecostal & Holiness
4.6%
Other Christian
3.4%
Non-Christian
3.4%
Methodist
0.7%
Baptist
0.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 57.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

District 31A sits in Greater Minnesota's agricultural belt, where an R+17.2 presidential margin in 2024 reflects the broader rural realignment that has reshaped the region's competitive map over the past decade.

The Democratic margin in State House District 31A has rarely exceeded forty-one points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded sixty-seven points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by four points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 75% non-Hispanic-white share, a 7% poverty rate, and a median household income of $101,869 — all within the broad national range.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State House District 31A, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/2731A/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did State House District 31A, Minnesota vote in 2024?
In 2024, State House District 31A, Minnesota voted Republican by 4.4 points (R+4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 21,949 votes cast, 10,185 went Democratic and 11,155 went Republican.
What is State House District 31A, Minnesota's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State House District 31A, Minnesota as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 17 times, Republican 16 times, and other 1 times.
When did State House District 31A, Minnesota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State House District 31A, Minnesota voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in State House District 31A, Minnesota?
State House District 31A, Minnesota has a population of 38,620 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State House District 31A, Minnesota?
Median household income in State House District 31A, Minnesota is $101,869 — above the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of State House District 31A, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in State House District 31A, Minnesota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 16 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.