- Lead
- 4,571
- Total
- 26,597
- vs nation
- R+15.7
Minnesota State House District 31A
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 4,432
- Total
- 26,243
- vs nation
- R+21.3
- Lead
- 5,402
- Total
- 22,996
- vs nation
- R+25.6
- Lead
- 4,041
- Total
- 22,895
- vs nation
- R+21.5
- Lead
- 3,932
- Total
- 22,386
- vs nation
- R+24.8
- Lead
- 4,740
- Total
- 21,448
- vs nation
- R+19.6
- Lead
- 2,776
- Total
- 17,797
- vs nation
- R+16.1
- Lead
- 668
- Total
- 14,700
- vs nation
- R+4.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+17.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,8962024 5-year
- Population density
- 958 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 44.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $119,2152024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+27.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+77.8 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 30B, MN · twin score 97.3
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota State House District 31A · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
63.7%
3,286 votes · D+27.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Harry S. Truman, 1948 · 57.3%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
87.2%
224 votes · R+77.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 78.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
10,737votes
40.4% of the vote · R+17.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 10,590 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
15,308votes
57.6% of the vote · R+17.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 15,022 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+15.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+14.7 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Harry S. Truman, 1948 · +13.6 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+58.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+77.8 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +50.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 45.4%10,617 | 54.6%12,760 | 23,377 |
| 2020 | R | 42.6%9,842 | 57.4%13,270 | 23,112 |
District 31A sits in Greater Minnesota's agricultural belt, where an R+17.2 presidential margin in 2024 reflects the broader rural realignment that has reshaped the region's competitive map over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 27.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 77.8 points in 1904. The 2024 margin was 17.2 points.
A population of 42,896, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $119,215 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 30B and State House District 30A.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota State House District 31A. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/2731A/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.