- Lead
- 1,510
- Total
- 55,867
- vs nation
- R+1.2
Michigan 31st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 447
- Total
- 53,386
- vs nation
- R+3.6
- Lead
- 24
- Total
- 45,585
- vs nation
- R+2.0
- Lead
- 4,744
- Total
- 45,319
- vs nation
- D+6.6
- Lead
- 7,016
- Total
- 48,222
- vs nation
- D+7.3
- Lead
- 1,827
- Total
- 47,497
- vs nation
- D+6.3
- Lead
- 2,319
- Total
- 41,097
- vs nation
- D+5.1
- Lead
- 5,226
- Total
- 37,272
- vs nation
- D+5.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+2.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 92,9782024 5-year
- Population density
- 239 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 389 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $83,5862024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 72.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+28.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+71.8 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 29, MI · twin score 89.9
presidential history
Party record book
Michigan 31st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
64.2%
26,806 votes · D+28.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 56.3%
Republican
Calvin Coolidge1924
80.5%
13,769 votes · R+71.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 79.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
27,129votes
56.3% of the vote · D+14.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 26,806 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
28,169votes
50.4% of the vote · R+2.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 26,260 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+9.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+8.7 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · +7.3 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+49.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+55.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · +46.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 58.6%27,225 | 41.4%19,203 | 46,428 |
| 2020 | D | 60.2%21,260 | 39.8%14,075 | 35,335 |
Michigan 31st State House District sits in the Great Lakes. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 28.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 71.8 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 2.7 points.
A population of 92,978, a 73% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $83,586 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 29 and State House District 27.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Michigan 31st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/26031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.