- Lead
- 849
- Total
- 40,022
- vs nation
- R+0.6
Michigan 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 10,607
- Total
- 43,406
- vs nation
- D+20.0
- Lead
- 5,963
- Total
- 39,262
- vs nation
- D+13.1
- Lead
- 10,183
- Total
- 39,151
- vs nation
- D+22.2
- Lead
- 12,412
- Total
- 42,175
- vs nation
- D+22.2
- Lead
- 7,251
- Total
- 42,337
- vs nation
- D+19.6
- Lead
- 6,708
- Total
- 37,331
- vs nation
- D+17.4
- Lead
- 8,979
- Total
- 35,923
- vs nation
- D+16.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+2.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 92,3012024 5-year
- Population density
- 5,594 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 16.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $71,8032024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+77.4 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 3, MI · twin score 87.6
presidential history
Party record book
Michigan 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
66.0%
33,921 votes · D+32.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 63.9%
Republican
Calvin Coolidge1924
82.1%
17,918 votes · R+77.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 80.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
33,921votes
66.0% of the vote · D+32.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 31,489 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
32,135votes
54.2% of the vote · R+8.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 30,446 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
+22.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+29.4 · U.S. D+7.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +22.2 pts
Republican
Calvin Coolidge1924
+52.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+77.4 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +49.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 68.3%27,955 | 31.7%12,984 | 40,939 |
Michigan 15th State House District sits in the Great Lakes. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 77.4 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 26.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 2.1 points.
A population of 92,301, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,803 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 3 and State House District 28.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Michigan 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/26015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.