- Lead
- 6,205
- Total
- 11,537
- vs nation
- R+52.3
Arkansas 45th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 6,090
- Total
- 11,879
- vs nation
- R+55.7
- Lead
- 4,965
- Total
- 10,971
- vs nation
- R+47.3
- Lead
- 3,417
- Total
- 10,095
- vs nation
- R+37.7
- Lead
- 3,066
- Total
- 10,334
- vs nation
- R+36.9
- Lead
- 1,590
- Total
- 10,030
- vs nation
- R+13.4
- Lead
- 1,076
- Total
- 8,926
- vs nation
- R+12.6
- Lead
- 1,013
- Total
- 8,640
- vs nation
- D+3.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+53.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 30,6412024 5-year
- Population density
- 40 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 763 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $53,1532024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+68.0 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+53.8 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 31, AR · twin score 96.0
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas 45th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
82.6%
1,100 votes · D+65.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 82.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
75.8%
8,747 votes · R+53.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 74.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Jimmy Carter1976
5,696votes
68.4% of the vote · D+36.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 4,518 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
8,814votes
74.2% of the vote · R+51.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 8,747 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+69.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+44.1 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +62.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+55.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+51.3 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +52.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Its Republican presidential margin was R+53.8 in 2024 and R+29.7 in 2008. About 34,900 residents lived here, with White alone at 82.3% in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 68.0 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 53.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 53.8 points.
A population of 30,641, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $53,153 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 31 and State House District 80.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arkansas 45th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/05045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.