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1892–2024
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neighborhood

Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, NY

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

2004–2024 · D minus R
Full record · 2004 → 2024
2024 presidential vote for Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor HeightsThe boundary of Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, filled by its 2024 presidential vote (R+35.7).Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights · R+35.7
2024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The boundary is the New York City 2020 Neighborhood Tabulation Areas. Results for 2004–2024 are modeled from precinct returns assigned through 2020 Census blocks, not certified neighborhood returns.

President results by year

Modeled candidate-vote estimate on Census boundaries

HarrisDemocratic31.0%4,392TrumpRepublican66.7%9,447OtherAll other candidates2.3%320
R+35.7
Lead
5,055
Total
14,159
vs nation
R+34.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
BidenDemocratic39.8%6,007TrumpRepublican59.2%8,929OtherAll other candidates1.0%157
R+19.4
Lead
2,922
Total
15,093
vs nation
R+23.8
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic40.2%5,116TrumpRepublican56.9%7,231OtherAll other candidates2.9%372
R+16.6
Lead
2,115
Total
12,719
vs nation
R+18.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic45.1%4,987RomneyRepublican54.9%6,069OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+9.8
Lead
1,082
Total
11,056
vs nation
R+13.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic42.2%5,001McCainRepublican57.1%6,763OtherAll other candidates0.8%89
R+14.9
Lead
1,762
Total
11,853
vs nation
R+22.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic37.5%4,310BushRepublican61.8%7,111OtherAll other candidates0.7%84
R+24.3
Lead
2,801
Total
11,505
vs nation
R+21.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Modeled estimate from precinct returns disaggregated to 2020 Census blocks and assigned by block internal pointRelative-to-nation = Place margin minus national margin for the same office and year.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+35.7MIT Election Lab
Population
32,8222020 Census PL 94-171 blocks
Population density
4,911 / sq mi2020 Census PL 94-171 blocks · NYC Department of City Planning
Land area
6.7 sq miNYC Department of City Planning
Median household income
$80,4832024 ACS 5-year parent-city context
White alone
65.0%2020 Census PL 94-171 P1
Black alone
4.5%2020 Census PL 94-171 P1
Hispanic / Latino (any race)
10.4%2020 Census PL 94-171 P2
Peak Republican margin
R+35.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar
Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, NY · twin score 86.8

presidential history

Party record book

Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, NY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles

Highest vote share

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Barack Obama2012

45.1%

4,987 votes · R+9.8 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 42.2%

Republican

Donald Trump2024

66.7%

9,447 votes · R+35.7 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 61.8%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

6,007votes

39.8% of the vote · R+19.4 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 5,116 votes

Republican

Donald Trump2024

9,447votes

66.7% of the vote · R+35.7 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 8,929 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

Barack Obama2012

−13.6pts D vs U.S.

Place R+9.8 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · −18.7 pts

Republican

Donald Trump2024

+34.2pts R vs U.S.

Place R+35.7 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +23.8 pts

Records rank each party’s presidential nominees over the returns for Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, NY, 2004–2024. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024); national margins from the same series.Vote share is the nominee’s votes over the candidate-vote total; “relative to the U.S.” subtracts the national margin from this Place’s margin (reversed for the Republican side, so the two are exactly symmetric). Ranking uses full precision and an exact tie goes to the more recent cycle.At least one record above sits on a modeled cycle — precinct returns allocated to this boundary, marked in place and estimated rather than certified.

What the record shows

Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights voted Republican by 35.7 points in the modeled 2024 presidential estimate. Its two-party direction moved 11.4 points toward Republicans or Democrats in net terms—specifically Republican—between 2004 and 2024.

The boundary is the city-sourced Neighborhood Tabulation Area system (2020 / DCP release 26b). Election totals are estimated from precinct returns disaggregated to 2020 Census blocks and assigned by block internal point. Detailed age, income, poverty, education, and language panels use the parent city's 2024 ACS profile as context; population and headline race figures use 2020 Census blocks inside this boundary.

Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights: Republican by 35.7 points in the modeled 2024 presidential result.
Boundary system
NYC 2020 NTAs · NYC Department of City Planning
2020 population
32,822 (2020) · 2020 Census PL 94-171 blocks
2024 presidential estimate
Republican by 35.7 points (2024) · Akashic block-disaggregated presidential model
Political twins — neighborhoods

The neighborhoods whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills
New York
86.8twin score
Similarity 0.87
Madison
New York
85.0twin score
Similarity 0.85
New Springville-Willowbrook-Bulls Head-Travis
New York
83.5twin score
Similarity 0.84

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/neighborhood/new-york/todt-hill-emerson-hill-lighthouse-hill-manor-heights/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Frequently asked questions

How did Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York voted Republican by 35.7 points (R+35.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 14,159 votes cast, 4,392 went Democratic and 9,447 went Republican.
How many people live in Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York?
Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York has a population of 32,822 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York?
Median household income in Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York is $80,483 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights, New York from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.