Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
neighborhood

Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, NY

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

2004–2024 · D minus R
Full record · 2004 → 2024
2024 presidential vote for Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan HillsThe boundary of Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, filled by its 2024 presidential vote (R+33.0).Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills · R+33.0
2024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The boundary is the New York City 2020 Neighborhood Tabulation Areas. Results for 2004–2024 are modeled from precinct returns assigned through 2020 Census blocks, not certified neighborhood returns.

President results by year

Modeled candidate-vote estimate on Census boundaries

HarrisDemocratic32.4%4,150TrumpRepublican65.4%8,386OtherAll other candidates2.2%288
R+33.0
Lead
4,236
Total
12,824
vs nation
R+31.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
BidenDemocratic40.4%5,754TrumpRepublican58.4%8,306OtherAll other candidates1.2%173
R+17.9
Lead
2,552
Total
14,233
vs nation
R+22.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic40.2%4,788TrumpRepublican56.6%6,747OtherAll other candidates3.2%380
R+16.4
Lead
1,959
Total
11,915
vs nation
R+18.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic49.7%4,884RomneyRepublican50.3%4,944OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+0.6
Lead
60
Total
9,828
vs nation
R+4.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic44.4%4,964McCainRepublican54.6%6,107OtherAll other candidates1.0%116
R+10.2
Lead
1,143
Total
11,187
vs nation
R+17.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic39.7%4,294BushRepublican59.3%6,418OtherAll other candidates1.0%110
R+19.6
Lead
2,124
Total
10,822
vs nation
R+17.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Modeled estimate from precinct returns disaggregated to 2020 Census blocks and assigned by block internal pointRelative-to-nation = Place margin minus national margin for the same office and year.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+33.0MIT Election Lab
Population
36,2592020 Census PL 94-171 blocks
Population density
12,618 / sq mi2020 Census PL 94-171 blocks · NYC Department of City Planning
Land area
2.9 sq miNYC Department of City Planning
Median household income
$80,4832024 ACS 5-year parent-city context
White alone
60.8%2020 Census PL 94-171 P1
Black alone
6.0%2020 Census PL 94-171 P1
Hispanic / Latino (any race)
16.7%2020 Census PL 94-171 P2
Peak Republican margin
R+33.0 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar
New Springville-Willowbrook-Bulls Head-Travis, NY · twin score 90.2

presidential history

Party record book

Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, NY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles

Highest vote share

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Barack Obama2012

49.7%

4,884 votes · R+0.6 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 44.4%

Republican

Donald Trump2024

65.4%

8,386 votes · R+33.0 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 59.3%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

5,754votes

40.4% of the vote · R+17.9 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 4,964 votes

Republican

Donald Trump2024

8,386votes

65.4% of the vote · R+33.0 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 8,306 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

Barack Obama2012

−4.5pts D vs U.S.

Place R+0.6 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · −17.2 pts

Republican

Donald Trump2024

+31.6pts R vs U.S.

Place R+33.0 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +22.4 pts

Records rank each party’s presidential nominees over the returns for Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, NY, 2004–2024. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024); national margins from the same series.Vote share is the nominee’s votes over the candidate-vote total; “relative to the U.S.” subtracts the national margin from this Place’s margin (reversed for the Republican side, so the two are exactly symmetric). Ranking uses full precision and an exact tie goes to the more recent cycle.At least one record above sits on a modeled cycle — precinct returns allocated to this boundary, marked in place and estimated rather than certified.

What the record shows

Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills voted Republican by 33.0 points in the modeled 2024 presidential estimate. Its two-party direction moved 13.4 points toward Republicans or Democrats in net terms—specifically Republican—between 2004 and 2024.

The boundary is the city-sourced Neighborhood Tabulation Area system (2020 / DCP release 26b). Election totals are estimated from precinct returns disaggregated to 2020 Census blocks and assigned by block internal point. Detailed age, income, poverty, education, and language panels use the parent city's 2024 ACS profile as context; population and headline race figures use 2020 Census blocks inside this boundary.

Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills: Republican by 33.0 points in the modeled 2024 presidential result.
Boundary system
NYC 2020 NTAs · NYC Department of City Planning
2020 population
36,259 (2020) · 2020 Census PL 94-171 blocks
2024 presidential estimate
Republican by 33.0 points (2024) · Akashic block-disaggregated presidential model
Political twins — neighborhoods

The neighborhoods whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

New Springville-Willowbrook-Bulls Head-Travis
New York
90.2twin score
Similarity 0.90
Todt Hill-Emerson Hill-Lighthouse Hill-Manor Heights
New York
86.8twin score
Similarity 0.87
Middle Village
New York
83.3twin score
Similarity 0.83

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/neighborhood/new-york/grasmere-arrochar-south-beach-dongan-hills/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Frequently asked questions

How did Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York voted Republican by 33.0 points (R+33.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 12,824 votes cast, 4,150 went Democratic and 8,386 went Republican.
How many people live in Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York?
Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York has a population of 36,259 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York?
Median household income in Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York is $80,483 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, New York from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.