Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
neighborhood

Middle Village, NY

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

2004–2024 · D minus R
Full record · 2004 → 2024
2024 presidential vote for Middle VillageThe boundary of Middle Village, filled by its 2024 presidential vote (R+23.5).Middle Village · R+23.5
2024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The boundary is the New York City 2020 Neighborhood Tabulation Areas. Results for 2004–2024 are modeled from precinct returns assigned through 2020 Census blocks, not certified neighborhood returns.

President results by year

Modeled candidate-vote estimate on Census boundaries

HarrisDemocratic37.6%4,757TrumpRepublican61.2%7,729OtherAll other candidates1.2%149
R+23.5
Lead
2,972
Total
12,635
vs nation
R+22.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
BidenDemocratic44.6%5,910TrumpRepublican54.3%7,192OtherAll other candidates1.2%153
R+9.7
Lead
1,282
Total
13,255
vs nation
R+14.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic45.5%5,080TrumpRepublican51.0%5,694OtherAll other candidates3.4%381
R+5.5
Lead
614
Total
11,155
vs nation
R+7.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic53.1%5,080RomneyRepublican46.9%4,494OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
D+6.1
Lead
586
Total
9,574
vs nation
D+2.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic47.4%5,133McCainRepublican51.7%5,606OtherAll other candidates0.9%96
R+4.4
Lead
473
Total
10,835
vs nation
R+11.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic43.2%4,638BushRepublican55.9%6,001OtherAll other candidates0.9%102
R+12.7
Lead
1,363
Total
10,741
vs nation
R+10.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Modeled estimate from precinct returns disaggregated to 2020 Census blocks and assigned by block internal pointRelative-to-nation = Place margin minus national margin for the same office and year.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+23.5MIT Election Lab
Population
34,3792020 Census PL 94-171 blocks
Population density
27,428 / sq mi2020 Census PL 94-171 blocks · NYC Department of City Planning
Land area
1.3 sq miNYC Department of City Planning
Median household income
$80,4832024 ACS 5-year parent-city context
White alone
64.4%2020 Census PL 94-171 P1
Black alone
1.9%2020 Census PL 94-171 P1
Hispanic / Latino (any race)
20.8%2020 Census PL 94-171 P2
Peak Democratic margin
D+6.1 in 2012MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+23.5 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar
Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills, NY · twin score 83.3

presidential history

Party record book

Middle Village, NY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles

Highest vote share

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Barack Obama2012

53.1%

5,080 votes · D+6.1 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 47.4%

Republican

Donald Trump2024

61.2%

7,729 votes · R+23.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 55.9%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

5,910votes

44.6% of the vote · R+9.7 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 5,133 votes

Republican

Donald Trump2024

7,729votes

61.2% of the vote · R+23.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 7,192 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

Barack Obama2012

+2.3pts D vs U.S.

Place D+6.1 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · −7.6 pts

Republican

Donald Trump2024

+22.1pts R vs U.S.

Place R+23.5 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +14.1 pts

Records rank each party’s presidential nominees over the returns for Middle Village, NY, 2004–2024. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024); national margins from the same series.Vote share is the nominee’s votes over the candidate-vote total; “relative to the U.S.” subtracts the national margin from this Place’s margin (reversed for the Republican side, so the two are exactly symmetric). Ranking uses full precision and an exact tie goes to the more recent cycle.At least one record above sits on a modeled cycle — precinct returns allocated to this boundary, marked in place and estimated rather than certified.

What the record shows

Middle Village voted Republican by 23.5 points in the modeled 2024 presidential estimate. Its two-party direction moved 10.8 points toward Republicans or Democrats in net terms—specifically Republican—between 2004 and 2024.

The boundary is the city-sourced Neighborhood Tabulation Area system (2020 / DCP release 26b). Election totals are estimated from precinct returns disaggregated to 2020 Census blocks and assigned by block internal point. Detailed age, income, poverty, education, and language panels use the parent city's 2024 ACS profile as context; population and headline race figures use 2020 Census blocks inside this boundary.

Middle Village: Republican by 23.5 points in the modeled 2024 presidential result.
Boundary system
NYC 2020 NTAs · NYC Department of City Planning
2020 population
34,379 (2020) · 2020 Census PL 94-171 blocks
2024 presidential estimate
Republican by 23.5 points (2024) · Akashic block-disaggregated presidential model
Political twins — neighborhoods

The neighborhoods whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Grasmere-Arrochar-South Beach-Dongan Hills
New York
83.3twin score
Similarity 0.83
New Springville-Willowbrook-Bulls Head-Travis
New York
80.7twin score
Similarity 0.81
Howard Beach-Lindenwood
New York
77.7twin score
Similarity 0.78

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Middle Village, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/neighborhood/new-york/middle-village/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Frequently asked questions

How did Middle Village, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Middle Village, New York voted Republican by 23.5 points (R+23.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 12,635 votes cast, 4,757 went Democratic and 7,729 went Republican.
When did Middle Village, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Middle Village, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Middle Village, New York?
Middle Village, New York has a population of 34,379 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Middle Village, New York?
Median household income in Middle Village, New York is $80,483 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Middle Village, New York?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Middle Village, New York from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 5 went Republican.