- Lead
- 4,826
- Total
- 10,945
- vs nation
- R+42.6
- Turnout
- 49.6%
Malheur County, OR
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 49.6% of 22,306 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 4,927
- Total
- 11,804
- vs nation
- R+46.2
- Turnout
- 57.0%
- Lead
- 4,948
- Total
- 10,435
- vs nation
- R+49.5
- Turnout
- 52.9%
- Lead
- 4,092
- Total
- 9,956
- vs nation
- R+45.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 4,208
- Total
- 10,433
- vs nation
- R+47.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,546
- Total
- 10,846
- vs nation
- R+48.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,288
- Total
- 10,404
- vs nation
- R+51.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,218
- Total
- 9,892
- vs nation
- R+41.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+44.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 31,9542024 5-year
- Median household income
- $54,5192024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 34.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+34.5 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+52.7 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Jerome County, ID · twin score 92.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 49.6%11,067 participants ÷ 22,306 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 36.3%–39.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 10,807 | 20,445 | 52.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 9,391 | 20,525 | 45.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 11,921 | 20,913 | 57.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 9,321 | 21,336 | 43.7% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 11,067 | 22,306 | 49.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
24 precincts · 10,945 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -2 Ontario2 Ontario | 485 | 480 | 61 | 1,026 | 47.3% | 46.8% | D+0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -1 Ontario1 Ontario | 347 | 537 | 24 | 908 | 38.2% | 59.1% | R+20.9 |
| Precinct -4 Ontario4 Ontario | 318 | 553 | 30 | 901 | 35.3% | 61.4% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -8 Nyssa City Limits8 Nyssa City Limits | 297 | 530 | 27 | 854 | 34.8% | 62.1% | R+27.3 |
| Precinct -3 Ontario3 Ontario | 339 | 477 | 34 | 850 | 39.9% | 56.1% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -9 Rural Nyssa9 Rural Nyssa | 124 | 675 | 28 | 827 | 15.0% | 81.6% | R+66.6 |
| Precinct -6 Fair/Ontario Heights6 Fair/Ontario Heights | 181 | 620 | 20 | 821 | 22.0% | 75.5% | R+53.5 |
| Precinct -14 North Rural Vale14 North Rural Vale | 103 | 637 | 15 | 755 | 13.6% | 84.4% | R+70.7 |
| Precinct -12 Vale City Limits12 Vale City Limits | 175 | 548 | 27 | 750 | 23.3% | 73.1% | R+49.7 |
| Precinct -7 Butte/Cairo7 Butte/Cairo | 131 | 455 | 13 | 599 | 21.9% | 76.0% | R+54.1 |
| Precinct -11 Rural Adrian11 Rural Adrian | 85 | 450 | 15 | 550 | 15.5% | 81.8% | R+66.4 |
| Precinct -13 South Rural Vale13 South Rural Vale | 76 | 459 | 11 | 546 | 13.9% | 84.1% | R+70.1 |
| Precinct -5 Applegate5 Applegate | 82 | 271 | 14 | 367 | 22.3% | 73.8% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -15 Willowcreek15 Willowcreek | 23 | 208 | 7 | 238 | 9.7% | 87.4% | R+77.7 |
| Precinct -24 Annex/Huntington/Farewell Bend24 Annex/Huntington/Farewell Bend | 42 | 143 | 8 | 193 | 21.8% | 74.1% | R+52.3 |
| Precinct -18 Harper18 Harper | 10 | 158 | 4 | 172 | 5.8% | 91.9% | R+86.0 |
| Precinct -21 Rural Jordan Valley21 Rural Jordan Valley | 4 | 130 | 1 | 135 | 3.0% | 96.3% | R+93.3 |
| Precinct -20 City of Jordan Valley20 City of Jordan Valley | 7 | 82 | 0 | 89 | 7.9% | 92.1% | R+84.3 |
| Precinct -10 City of Adrian10 City of Adrian | 29 | 47 | 8 | 84 | 34.5% | 56.0% | R+21.4 |
| Precinct -22 Arock22 Arock | 0 | 80 | 0 | 80 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -16 Brogan16 Brogan | 21 | 48 | 1 | 70 | 30.0% | 68.6% | R+38.6 |
| Precinct -19 Juntura19 Juntura | 0 | 68 | 0 | 68 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -17 Ironside17 Ironside | 3 | 34 | 2 | 39 | 7.7% | 87.2% | R+79.5 |
| Precinct -23 McDermitt23 McDermitt | 2 | 20 | 1 | 23 | 8.7% | 87.0% | R+78.3 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +3.0% |
| 1896 | +34.5% |
| 1900 | +0.8% |
| 1904 | −41.5% |
| 1908 | −17.5% |
| 1912 | +0.4% |
| 1916 | +6.4% |
| 1920 | −35.3% |
| 1924 | −26.2% |
| 1928 | −35.7% |
| 1932 | +11.6% |
| 1936 | +28.2% |
| 1940 | +0.5% |
| 1944 | −11.1% |
| 1948 | −13.0% |
| 1952 | −41.2% |
| 1956 | −22.5% |
| 1960 | −19.7% |
| 1964 | −4.7% |
| 1968 | −41.0% |
| 1972 | −46.0% |
| 1976 | −22.6% |
| 1980 | −42.0% |
| 1984 | −52.7% |
| 1988 | −35.2% |
| 1992 | −26.6% |
| 1996 | −32.5% |
| 2000 | −50.8% |
| 2004 | −51.1% |
| 2008 | −40.3% |
| 2012 | −41.1% |
| 2016 | −47.4% |
| 2020 | −41.7% |
| 2024 | −44.1% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 22 points more Democratic.
18,523 registered voters · 2024 · up from 17,996 in 2022
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−230 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,613 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $41,023 in average income, against $57,384 for residents who stayed — 29% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+47.0 on average — 2.9 points more Republican-leaning than Malheur County, OR itself (R+44.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Payette County, ID151R+62.9
- Canyon County, ID107R+46.6
- Ada County, ID75R+10.3
- Washington County, ID27R+61.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Payette County, ID152
- Canyon County, ID149
- Ada County, ID100
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −504 |
| 2012 | −290 |
| 2013 | −265 |
| 2014 | −388 |
| 2015 | −183 |
| 2016 | −2 |
| 2017 | −77 |
| 2018 | +73 |
| 2019 | −103 |
| 2021 | +32 |
| 2022 | +153 |
| 2023 | +271 |
| 2024 | −100 |
| 2025 | −230 |
Malheur sits in Oregon's remote southeastern corner, sharing more geography—and voting patterns—with neighboring Idaho than with the Willamette Valley. Its ranching and agricultural economy has produced some of the state's most lopsided presidential margins for decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 34.5 points in 1896 and a Republican high of 52.7 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 44.1 points.
A population of 31,954, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,519 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Jerome County and Minidoka County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Malheur County, Oregon. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/41045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.