Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic71.6%845TrumpRepublican26.4%312OtherAll other candidates1.9%23
D+45.2
Lead
533
Total
1,180
vs nation
D+46.6
BidenDemocratic76.2%784TrumpRepublican21.7%223OtherAll other candidates2.1%22
D+54.5
Lead
561
Total
1,029
vs nation
D+50.1
ClintonDemocratic74.5%612TrumpRepublican15.8%130OtherAll other candidates9.6%79
D+58.7
Lead
482
Total
821
vs nation
D+56.6
ObamaDemocratic79.4%656RomneyRepublican16.5%136OtherAll other candidates4.1%34
D+63.0
Lead
520
Total
826
vs nation
D+59.1
ObamaDemocratic84.0%314McCainRepublican13.4%50OtherAll other candidates2.7%10
D+70.6
Lead
264
Total
374
vs nation
D+63.3
KerryDemocratic76.2%499BushRepublican20.8%136OtherAll other candidates3.1%20
D+55.4
Lead
363
Total
655
vs nation
D+57.9
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
D+45.2MIT Election Lab
Population
2,8982024 5-year
Population density
1,208 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
2.4 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$65,1012024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
20.1%2024 5-year
Black
0.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
78.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+70.6 in 2008MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
64.4%1,183 participants ÷ 1,836 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+2.4 ptsMidterm-resilient, low base
Drop-off vs state
-12.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
58.2%–62.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
43.0%
49.0%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,183
1,836 ± 411
64.4%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
877
1,790 ± 386
49.0%
Audited
E/D
1,034
2,013 ± 508
51.4%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
775
1,801 ± 365
43.0%
Audited
E/D
825
1,553 ± 284
53.1%
Audited
E/D
826
1,502
55.0%
Derived
—
374
1,406
26.6%
Derived
—
655
1,310 extrapolated
50.0%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Agua Fria, NM · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
84.0%
314 votes · D+70.6
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 79.4%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
26.4%
312 votes · D+45.2
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 21.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
845votes
71.6% of the vote · D+45.2
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 784 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
312votes
26.4% of the vote · D+45.2
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 223 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
+63.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+70.6 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +59.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
−46.6pts R vs U.S.
Place D+45.2 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · −50.1 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Agua Fria · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Santa Fe County, New Mexico, the county containing Agua Fria — Agua Fria’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Agua Fria, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Agua Fria sits on the southern fringe of Santa Fe, straddling the line between exurban growth and traditional New Mexico land-grant settlement patterns — a demographic mix that shapes its voting profile within a reliably Democratic county.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 70.6 points in 2008. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 9.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 45.2 points.
A population of 2,898, a 20% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,101 describe the city.
In 2024, Agua Fria, New Mexico voted Democratic by 45.2 points (D+45.2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,180 votes cast, 845 went Democratic and 312 went Republican.
How many people live in Agua Fria, New Mexico?
Agua Fria, New Mexico has a population of 2,898 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Agua Fria, New Mexico?
Median household income in Agua Fria, New Mexico is $65,101 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Agua Fria, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Agua Fria, New Mexico from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
